Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Russian Military still obsessed over Snake Island...

When will they ever learn???

https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1524846288105263108?s=20&t=nlyPBdQn_...

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1524859379987759126?s=20&t=M-wB3qUPwEiwYw...

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1524849696321290243?s=20&t=M-wB3qUPwEiwYw...

[Storr]

I could see this becoming a big issue for the Russian Army if the war becomes prolonged with no victory on the horizon (like the USSR in Afghanistan or US in Vietnam). If that does happen, the Ministry of Defense will probably just change the rules that allow soldiers to refuse. With memories of conscripts in Chechnya still relatively fresh in the public consciousness, using conscripts will likely be avoided unless absolutely necessary.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1524850447827320852?s=20&t=o93yETQ3...

"Under Russian military rules, troops who refuse to fight in Ukraine can face dismissal but cannot be prosecuted, said Mikhail Benyash, a lawyer who has been advising soldiers who choose that option."

“Commanders try to threaten their soldiers with prison time if they dissent, but we tell the soldiers that they can simply say no,” Benyash said."

"Pointing to Russia’s military laws, Benyash said it would be more difficult for soldiers to refuse to fight if Russia were to declare a full-scale war. “During wartime, rules are totally different. Refusal then would mean much harsher penalties. They would be looking at time in prison.”"

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524742847664173057?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[John Dule]

Wow, imagine a country so barbaric that you can face legal consequences for refusing to pick up a gun and shoot people. Thank god I live in the land of the free

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/KremlinTrolls/status/1524878499789561858/photo/1?ref_src=tws...

Russians using attack helis to transport washing machines.  This one less than successfully.

[urutzizu]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1525072069435740164

Turkey is making a fuss about NATO expansion (Sweden does have a large Kurdish populations and some PKK-sympathizing politicians, but this is comical exaggeration). Going from their previous behaviour, they will ratify after some posturing for an internal audience and some nominal "concessions" by the other members (see their veto threats against the NATO defense plan for Poland and Baltics at the London summit over Syria).

That said some of the things happening with Turkey in regards to the War have been a bit concerning. It has been overshadowed by the (very important and good) sales of Bayraktars to Ukraine. Turkey is the only NATO member not to impose any sanctions, which is perfectly understandable given their dire economic situation, but you have also had for example the Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu saying in an Interview that "some NATO states want to prolong the Ukraine war so Russia gets weaker" (alluding to the US), which regurgitating just plain Russian propaganda. And this does have an effect on public opinion: In a Metropoll poll only 34 percent of Turks held Russia responsible for the war in Ukraine, while 48 percent blamed the United States and NATO. Of course the latent anti-Americanism in Turkish society and the fantasies of nationalist circles who see the country's future in a Eurasian bloc, precedes Erdogan by a mile, but by posturing to them like this he is also fueling them.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525058143302176768
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1524933375772852229

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1525072069435740164

Turkey is making a fuss about NATO expansion (Sweden does have a large Kurdish populations and some PKK-sympathizing politicians, but this is comical exaggeration). Going from their previous behaviour, they will ratify after some posturing for an internal audience and some nominal "concessions" by the other members (see their veto threats against the NATO defense plan for Poland and Baltics at the London summit over Syria).

That said some of the things happening with Turkey in regards to the War have been a bit concerning. It has been overshadowed by the (very important and good) sales of Bayraktars to Ukraine. Turkey is the only NATO member not to impose any sanctions, which is perfectly understandable given their dire economic situation, but you have also had for example the Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu saying in an Interview that "some NATO states want to prolong the Ukraine war so Russia gets weaker" (alluding to the US), which regurgitating just plain Russian propaganda. And this does have an effect on public opinion: In a Metropoll poll only 34 percent of Turks held Russia responsible for the war in Ukraine, while 48 percent blamed the United States and NATO. Of course the latent anti-Americanism in Turkish society and the fantasies of nationalist circles who see the country's future in a Eurasian bloc, precedes Erdogan by a mile, but by posturing to them like this he is also fueling them.

How about we take Sweden and Finland in and throw Turkey out?

[The Mikado]

Russians may be entering Sieverodonetsk, but they've not proven good at all at actually thriving in urban combat. Given how long it took them to almost completely subdue Mariupol, which is way way way behind their lines, I'm not betting on them having an easy time with Sieverodonetsk, a city that's literally right on the front lines and easily resuppliable for the Ukrainians.

Entering does not equal "is about to fall," far from it. Probably just means we're gonna be spending two months hearing about the battle of Sieverodonetsk.

Also worth pointing out that this is literally, like, basically a stones throw westwards of where the offensive started from three weeks ago.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Russians may be entering Sieverodonetsk, but they've not proven good at all at actually thriving in urban combat. Given how long it took them to almost completely subdue Mariupol, which is way way way behind their lines, I'm not betting on them having an easy time with Sieverodonetsk, a city that's literally right on the front lines and easily resuppliable for the Ukrainians.

Entering does not equal "is about to fall," far from it. Probably just means we're gonna be spending two months hearing about the battle of Sieverodonetsk.

Also worth pointing out that this is literally, like, basically a stones throw westwards of where the offensive started from three weeks ago.

How does their progress in the Donbas Offensive compare with say, Verdun or the Somme?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1525132564020723712

[President Johnson]

After weeks of silence between them, Scholz today spoke with Putin on the phone. May be good that he can say that he tried everything possible, but I guess it's a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1525079306514440194

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1525091348470185987

[Logical]

Very interesting window into the life of a Russian Lieutenant captured in Ukraine.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/ten-more-european-gas-buyers-open-ruble-accounts-for-payments

"Ten More European Gas Buyers Open Ruble Accounts for Payments"

That makes 20 European companies that have opened RUB accounts so far.

[Torie]

This academic from a marginal academic institution makes the conclusory statement that Russia will splinter into a bunch of statelets. The value of the article to me matches what I paid for it.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3483799-prepare-for-the-disappearance-of-russia/

[Middle-aged Europe]

This academic from a marginal academic institution makes the conclusory statement that Russia will splinter into a bunch of statelets. The value of the article to me matches what I paid for it.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3483799-prepare-for-the-disappearance-of-russia/

Well, he does have a Wikipedia article that has existed since 2007: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_J._Motyl

According to the article, his parents were also Ukrainian immigrants to the U.S., so he's probably biased.

That being I said, a Russia that is splintered in several smaller republics would be preferable to me than a large Russia that is a potential threat to the world... weren't it for the possibility of a dozen unstable statelets with nuclear arms in their possession.

[Torie]

This academic from a marginal academic institution makes the conclusory statement that Russia will splinter into a bunch of statelets. The value of the article to me matches what I paid for it.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3483799-prepare-for-the-disappearance-of-russia/

Well, he does have a Wikipedia article that has existed since 2007: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_J._Motyl

According to the article, his parents were also Ukrainian immigrants to the U.S., so he's probably biased.

That being I said, a Russia that is splintered in several smaller republics would be preferable to me than a large Russia that is a potential threat to the world... weren't it for the possibility of a dozen unstable statelets with nuclear arms in their possession.

Oh, one is entitled to have whatever preferences/fantasies we want. What caused me to run for the exits was when he made predictions about the future without bothering to provide any documentation to speak of.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1525072069435740164

Turkey is making a fuss about NATO expansion (Sweden does have a large Kurdish populations and some PKK-sympathizing politicians, but this is comical exaggeration). Going from their previous behaviour, they will ratify after some posturing for an internal audience and some nominal "concessions" by the other members (see their veto threats against the NATO defense plan for Poland and Baltics at the London summit over Syria).

That said some of the things happening with Turkey in regards to the War have been a bit concerning. It has been overshadowed by the (very important and good) sales of Bayraktars to Ukraine. Turkey is the only NATO member not to impose any sanctions, which is perfectly understandable given their dire economic situation, but you have also had for example the Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu saying in an Interview that "some NATO states want to prolong the Ukraine war so Russia gets weaker" (alluding to the US), which regurgitating just plain Russian propaganda. And this does have an effect on public opinion: In a Metropoll poll only 34 percent of Turks held Russia responsible for the war in Ukraine, while 48 percent blamed the United States and NATO. Of course the latent anti-Americanism in Turkish society and the fantasies of nationalist circles who see the country's future in a Eurasian bloc, precedes Erdogan by a mile, but by posturing to them like this he is also fueling them.

How about we take Sweden and Finland in and throw Turkey out?

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1525190893145411584?s=20&t=JnzRfzpo...

[Logical]

This academic from a marginal academic institution makes the conclusory statement that Russia will splinter into a bunch of statelets. The value of the article to me matches what I paid for it.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3483799-prepare-for-the-disappearance-of-russia/

Well, he does have a Wikipedia article that has existed since 2007: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_J._Motyl

According to the article, his parents were also Ukrainian immigrants to the U.S., so he's probably biased.

That being I said, a Russia that is splintered in several smaller republics would be preferable to me than a large Russia that is a potential threat to the world... weren't it for the possibility of a dozen unstable statelets with nuclear arms in their possession.

The ideal Russia from the Western perspective is a Goldilocks Russia. Not strong enough to threathen its neighbors but not too weak that it breaks up into several states or turns into a Chinese satellite state.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After weeks of silence between them, Scholz today spoke with Putin on the phone. May be good that he can say that he tried everything possible, but I guess it's a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1525079306514440194

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1525091348470185987

Earlier the same day, the Chancellor was questioned by the Bundestag's defence committee. In an apparent protest against Scholz' approach to the crisis, a couple of members of the FDP staged a walk-out. This led to criticism that the FDP is undermining the governing coalition with actions like these. This in turn led to the FDP's spokesperson on defence policies - one of the MPs who had participated in the walk-out - to offer his resignation.

[Storr]

More evidence showing what Russia really thinks about the separatists :

https://twitter.com/poliitikasse/status/1525037160000278528?s=20&t=JnzRfzpo_...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1525210883630194689?s=20&t=zXvbwVt...

They've always been a geopolitical pawn for the Kremlin.

[NewYorkExpress]

Duma member Oleg Morozov openly threatens Poland, says that they are next in line for DeNazification.

Amember of the Russian parliament and a top member of President Vladimir Putin's political party, United Russia, has suggested that Russia look to Poland after Ukraine in its quest for "denazification."

Oleg Morozov's comments, which were posted to Telegram, echoed Putin's self-described goal of working to "denazify" Ukraine.

Poland should be "in first place in the queue for denazification after Ukraine," Morozov said in the post, according to an English translation.


It was not immediately clear why Morozov reportedly believes that Poland is in need of "denazification," but the comments could further strain tensions between Russia and Europe amid the war in Ukraine. Poland is one of 30 NATO member nations, meaning that any potential Russian attempts to target the country could trigger a massive war with the military alliance.


Newsweek reached out to Morozov via the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's parliament, for comment on these remarks.

[Torie]

Duma member Oleg Morozov openly threatens Poland, says that they are next in line for DeNazification.

Amember of the Russian parliament and a top member of President Vladimir Putin's political party, United Russia, has suggested that Russia look to Poland after Ukraine in its quest for "denazification."

Oleg Morozov's comments, which were posted to Telegram, echoed Putin's self-described goal of working to "denazify" Ukraine.

Poland should be "in first place in the queue for denazification after Ukraine," Morozov said in the post, according to an English translation.


It was not immediately clear why Morozov reportedly believes that Poland is in need of "denazification," but the comments could further strain tensions between Russia and Europe amid the war in Ukraine. Poland is one of 30 NATO member nations, meaning that any potential Russian attempts to target the country could trigger a massive war with the military alliance.


Newsweek reached out to Morozov via the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's parliament, for comment on these remarks.

It seems that insane demagoguery is as rampant in Russia as in the US by politicians, but then I already knew that. May may justice be done to all of them. Yes, right, the odds are, that justice will be done to few of them - our species is that flawed.

[Frodo]

Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year'
Major General Kyrylo Budanov spoke exclusively to Sky News and predicted the war will reach a turning point in August. He correctly predicted when Russia would invade earlier this year.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The ISW assesses that Russia will pursue one of three strategies:
1. Denial will continue and so will the Donbas offensive, followed by collapse
2. Mobilisation
3. Acceptance (at some point, after offensives stall) that territorial gains are maximal, followed by direct annexation of occupied regions, a (temporary?) halt to offensive operations, and a claim that a Ukrainian counteroffensive on them would fall under Russian nuclear doctrine

IMO, 3. would probably require a ceasefire first, and seems like a really poor idea. It works for South Ossetia, but when it comes to tens of thousands of troops in an active warzone, I would expect some of them to be willing to call any bluff.

1. could well lead to a coup.

Despite the political risk, I’d say 2. is the safest for Russia (of these options). Full mobilisation would at least allow inexperienced conscripts fresh of school to be replaced by reservists or ex-military who’d served for a minimum of one year, and their manpower problems are more acute than their equipment problems.