MI-Trafalgar: Tied
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Author Topic: MI-Trafalgar: Tied  (Read 292 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 28, 2020, 09:53:04 AM »
Peters (D-inc) 47%
James (R) 47%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TMFBeZQNL0acengHKAZru4D78kvB38e2/view
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2020, 09:59:58 AM »
September 23-25
1047 likely voters
MoE: 2.95%
Changes with August 14-23 poll

James 47% (-1)
Peters 47% (+1)
Another Party Candidate 2% (n/c)
Undecided 4% (+1)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2020, 10:02:06 AM »
James underpolling, well he isn't safe at all, but it's an R pollster
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jdk
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2020, 10:06:01 AM »
Traf is beyond parody at this point.

Just checked fivethirtyeight, it didn't affect their senate forecast one bit. Of course, RCP has already used it to skew the averages.
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Woody
SirWoodbury
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2020, 10:30:07 AM »
Quote from: jdk on September 28, 2020, 10:06:01 AM
Traf is beyond parody at this point.

Just checked fivethirtyeight, it didn't affect their senate forecast one bit. Of course, RCP has already used it to skew the averages.
They nailed it in 2016 & 2018 in Michigan.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2020, 10:44:47 AM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on September 28, 2020, 10:30:07 AM
Quote from: jdk on September 28, 2020, 10:06:01 AM
Traf is beyond parody at this point.

Just checked fivethirtyeight, it didn't affect their senate forecast one bit. Of course, RCP has already used it to skew the averages.
They nailed it in 2016 & 2018 in Michigan.


Rassy and Trafalgar polls aren't accounting for VBM ballots and early voting thats going on that's padding D's lead, they are basing their turnout on same day voting. That's why we are getting disparities in polling which shows 10 pt leads for Biden and closer leads in Rassy and Trafalgar
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GALeftist
sansymcsansface
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2020, 10:47:16 AM »
I'm sorry, but there is no way Peters is tied in a sample that's 54% women, that alone should give him a healthy boost. Maybe this race is closer than everyone thought, but something's weird with this poll.
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WD
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2020, 10:50:26 AM »
A tie is the best they can do? Yeah, maybe it’ll be close but Peters isn’t losing
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2020, 10:53:57 AM »
Tilt R. Peters isn't polling close to 50 in any poll besides outlier NBC Marist. He is done politically on 11.3
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Vosem
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2020, 11:23:59 AM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on September 28, 2020, 10:30:07 AM
Quote from: jdk on September 28, 2020, 10:06:01 AM
Traf is beyond parody at this point.

Just checked fivethirtyeight, it didn't affect their senate forecast one bit. Of course, RCP has already used it to skew the averages.
They nailed it in 2016 & 2018 in Michigan.

Hilariously, they overestimated the Democrats in 2018 in Michigan; their final poll was Stabenow+9, and the actual result was Stabenow+6.

In 2016 they called Trump+2, and the actual result was Trump+0. Both errors are within the MoE, though.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2020, 11:39:37 AM »
So Lean D? Exactly what it is and we all knew? Cool.
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