Gravis is going to release IN/FL polls soon. Given how D-friendly they’ve been in those states in the past, I’m gonna guess Donnelly +12 and Nelson +7 or something like that.
Finally! A post-primary public poll in Indiana.
As for Florida, I think I said before that I would need three polls in a row to have a Nelson lead of +4 or higher, or 3 similarly-sized Scott leads in a row, to change my perception of the race from Tilts D.
There are 3 polls with Scott +4 or more:
5/28 FAU Scott +4:
https://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/national-govt--politics/fau-poll-scott-edging-nelson-senate-race-trump-approval/f1R3VtiD14RG4HwpjeQ5iI/ 6/4 Cherry Communications. Scott +5:
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?type=src&source_id=1796/11. Morning Consult. Scott +1:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/11/florida-senate-scott-nelson-poll-6353586/12 St. Leo University Scott +6:
http://sunshinestatenews.com/story/rick-scott-holds-solid-lead-over-bill-nelson-new-pollSo, do you change from tilt D
At worst for Scott based on actual Florida polls it is a toss up. At best tilt R