Westchester and Nassau

[King of Kensington]

HRC did a fair bit better than Obama in Westchester, presumably because of her local ties and that Trump was less appealing to affluent and educated whites than Romney was.

But in Nassau - another affluent suburban county - the GOP vote was more or less the same (45.9% for Trump, 45.6% for Romney).  Perhaps the North Shore swung D and the South Shore swung R? 

In both counties, over 50% of the white population is Italian American or Jewish.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, LI strikes me as more insular.  Non-NY natives who end up moving to the suburbs seem to prefer Westchester and even NJ over LI.

[King of Kensington]

Trump seems like a pretty bad fit for Westchester even if won the GOP primary there.

[King of Kensington]

Where I live in Westchester, Scarsale, clearly swung toward Clinton.  We will have to look at the results on a town by town basis but my hunch is the Westchester swung toward Clinton South of White Plains and swung toward Trump North of White Plains.  Northern Westchester are a lot more like Putnum County and Duchess County.  White Plains represents the partisan division between NYC and Upstate NY.

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Trump really bombed in Scarsdale.

As for Northern Westchester, it is "home" for the Clintons.  But yes it does have more white working class people, while southern Westchester is more stark in terms of inequality (even if you have both elite whites and urban minorities voting D).

[King of Kensington]

Perhaps Phil Ochs had Scarsdale in mind when he wrote "Love Me I'm A Liberal."

[King of Kensington]

So about a third of whites in both are Italian American and about a quarter are Jewish.  

Westchester retains more of a "WASP" image even though the ethnic composition of its white population isn't that different from Nassau. 

[King of Kensington]

Italian population between the two isn't that much different.  Nassau is 21%, Westchester 18%. 

Nassau has Franklin Square and the Massapequas; Westchester has Eastchester and Harrison. 

[King of Kensington]

From American Factfinder.

College graduates:

Westchester  46.1%
Nassau  42.3%
Suffolk  33.5%

College graduates, NHWs:

Westchester  56.3%
Nassau  46.8%
Suffolk  37%

Graduate or professional degree:

Westchester  22.7%
Nassau  19%
Suffolk  15.1%

Per capita income:

Westchester  $48,487
Nassau  $42,949
Suffolk  $33,756

Per capita income, NHWs:

Westchester  $64,730
Nassau  $51,067
Suffolk  $43,825

[King of Kensington]

This article from 1999 - when the Clintons were looking to move to Westchester.  Northern Westchester is described as "Republican territory."

http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/news/clintons-country-chic-feel-home-westchester-article-1.827042

[King of Kensington]

Did Hillary do as well as Obama on the Gold Coast (northern Nassau)? It's pretty affluent there.

I suspect she did better than Obama on the North Shore, but Trump outperformed Romney on the South Shore.

[King of Kensington]

Nate Silver draws the contrast between Westchester and Suffolk.  Nassau sort of stands in between.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/

[King of Kensington]

So traditional patterns basically held up.  What were the swings from Obama/Romney like?

[King of Kensington]

Westchester is "liberal elite", LI is not.