Pennsylvania 2008

[TeePee4Prez]

Yeah, this is an earful, but if McCain runs, a lot of seats could potentially switch back.  Iraq doesn't go well and the GOP nominates a Brownback or Tancredo, there could be even more Dem gains.

My picks: 

D -> R: Chris Carney (D, PA 10) District is too conservative and he got in on a scandal

McCain leads ticket look for PA 8 to be competitive.

R -> D: Jim Gerlach (R, PA 6)  District is moving leftward in a painfully slow manner, but it will get there.

Iraq doesn't go well and the GOP nominates loon, Charlie Dent (R, PA 15) could be vulnerable.  Dems will challenge this seat from what I'm hearing.

[TeePee4Prez]

Gerlach could fall, though considering it didnt happen in 06, its hard to see it happening.

Dents district looks safe for now (probably a couple more years before the exurban conservativism starts to morph into suburban liberalism)

Pat Murphy could fall, given a good Republican at the top of the GOP ticket and a good competitor (Outside of Tomlinson, Fitzpatrick or Greenwood doing something shocking) a good competitor isnt to be found right now. Plus Murphy seems to be intent at doing what he needs to do to get re-elected. Its hard to unseat an incumbent in PA-08, it would take a 2006 type of election to do it.

If things don't go better in Iraq by 2008, look for Gerlach to fall.

Also, Dent got nipped a little bit last election against someone not well known or well-funded.

[TeePee4Prez]

Seems like someone voted one of each.  Was it DWTL?

[TeePee4Prez]

Dent was a big missed opportunity. We blew it not going after him. We should this time.

Has Gerlach jumped on the anti-Iraq bandwagon? He better.

I agree.  Rendell and Casey did very well in the district and Dent is VERY far right on economic issues.  A Dem could have exposed him there.

[TeePee4Prez]

What idiot voted for Murtha?

BRTD, I put him on the poll for a reason.  IF the GOP has a good year, he could theoretically be vulnerable.  Same with PA 11 and 13.  The only rock solid Dem districts are PA 1, 2, and 14.

[TeePee4Prez]

Gerlach can only fall in one scenario: One where the Dems of the district get that the people there do not want Lois Murphy. Until they get that, consider the seat Gerlach's. Otherwise, theres a chance, especially if things dont change anytime soon.

State Sen. Andy Dinniman and State Rep. Mike Gerber are mentioned as potential candidates.  I think Gerber could pull it off!

[TeePee4Prez]

Gerlach can only fall in one scenario: One where the Dems of the district get that the people there do not want Lois Murphy. Until they get that, consider the seat Gerlach's. Otherwise, theres a chance, especially if things dont change anytime soon.

State Sen. Andy Dinniman and State Rep. Mike Gerber are mentioned as potential candidates.  I think Gerber could pull it off!

We don't even know if Gerber is in the 6th. If he was, it would be a tough race (as usual) and Gerber, depending on the year, might have the edge. He is a good candidate. However, he is building up a lot of power in the House and will probably want to stay.

Dinniman is the one that everyone seems to be talking about. He has a record of winning over Republican voters (he has his seat because of a special election in a very Republican Senate district) so he might be able to do it. I think Gerlach still has the edge in this race.

Dinniman's Senate District overlaps a lot of the Dems' Achilles' Heel in PA 6- Chester County.  I definitely think either one could pull it off.  If the situation doens't improve for the GOP, the Dems will put someone other than Lois for the Dem slot.