2013 Elections in Germany

[mubar]

So why poll a local election which is 3 or 4 years away?

As has been said, the newspapers want new polls to publish once in a while. In addition, state elections and satisfaction with state governments really are a big deal in a federal country, unlike in an unitary state. State elections in Germany or Austria are therefore not local elections - elections in cities normally would be local, but Berlin is a city state. And of course in any parliamentary system you're going to see a lot of party support polls at any point of the electoral cycle, which is different from a presidential system like France where the person who holds the presidency is most important and the exact level of support for political parties comparatively less crucial.

In Berlin, it's the local newspaper Berliner Zeitung which wants a poll every month and so Forsa conducts that for them. There is also a poll conducted by Infratest dimap every few months for another paper Berliner Morgenpost and for the local public broadcaster RBB.

Incidentally, the Forsa/BZ polls have not had FDP as separate entry since December 2011. For them, FDP in Berlin state elections is firmly among "Others". However the competing polls from Infratest dimap have shown the state FDP consistently at 2% during the year 2012 too. Since the "Others" in Forsa polls are at 8-9% while their share in Infratest polls is more like 5 or 6%, it seems clear that Forsa also polls FDP at around 2%, but when publishing the results Berliner Zeitung chooses to not show that and instead shoves the party in the Others column. Not that two percent would be anything to be particularly happy about, either...

[mubar]

There was also a third poll in Niedersachsen out Thursday.

Lower Saxony - Infratest dimap for ARD, 10.01.2013

40% CDU
33% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  3% Others

SPD-Greens 46-45 over CDU-FDP.

This is almost identical with the FG Wahlen and GMS polls published the same day, and their field periods are also similar, as all three have collected their data early this week. The field period of the outlier poll from INFO is in fact a week earlier than the others, just after new year's day, which might explain something, though not the Linke surge. INFO's new poll is the first and only Lower Saxony poll since September that expects Linke to cross the 5% limit.

If the poll consensus holds right, then the Left would not get in and FDP would have 50-50 chance of clearing the 5% hurdle. Based on that, CDU just has to lend some Zweitstimmen-support to FDP to keep up the hope of a continuing right-wing government. The Left is more of a question, however: as has been said above, they have actually had better results in Lower Saxony than in other western states (Saarland being the obvious exception). And in January 2008, all polls predicted 3% to 5% for the Left, and still they got 7,1%. So there is room for surprise.

[mubar]

Lower Saxony predition:

39% CDU - Some tactical voters for FDP, while getting a few centrist swing voters.
29% SPD - Steinbrück dragging even the state party down.
15% Greens - Benefits of SPD voters.
  8% FDP - Still alive, and tactical voting adds 1-2 percent or so.
  4,5% Left - Again higher than polls, but just not enough to get in.
  2,5% Pirates - They are on a way to becoming a local party in Berlin city election in a few years.
  2% All others

Leading to a continued black-yellow majority of 47% against 44% of the red-green.

[mubar]

Yes, if education was the most important issue for voters and over 70% are against tuition fees, it's no wonder that the red-green victory could take place. One thing to remember, especially when following this from some country with high study fees is that in Germany or in its neighbors there's no tradition of study fees for public universities - you only pay the semester contribution (often to the student council) which entitles you to student discounts and free local public transport. About 10 years ago the black-yellow coalitions started introducing the 500€ semester fees, and at the high point in 2007-08 there were fees in all western states except Schleswig-Holstein and Rheinland-Pfalz (don't really know about Bremen though). But they were such a controversial issue that with red-green victories the fees have since been discontinued everywhere expect Bavaria and, until this election, Lower Saxony.

Regarding Niedersachsen:

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According to wahlrecht.de

(Translation: If the SPD loses 1399 votes to the FDP, the red-green majority would be gone. A lot, but theoretically possible between now and the final result.)

Close enough, although of course relatively unlikely.

Regarding the above situation with SPD getting the Ausgleichsmandat in d'Hondt, but FDP getting it in Sainte-Laguë or in Hare-Niemeyer, thus leading to a black-yellow majority again, the wahlrecht.de history says that Lower Saxony used to have d'Hondt until they changed it to Hare-Niemeyer after 1974 when FDP was in coalition with CDU and demanded it. But then before the 1986 elections CDU was governing alone and changed the method back to d'Hondt. So this loss was, in a way, the Union's own making.

[mubar]

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/umfrage-mehrheit-gegen-studiengebuehren-1.1569103

Infratest Dimap poll for BR, beginning of this January: 72% of Bavarians against tuition fees, only 25% for them.

I find the difference between German and Austrian public opinion regarding study fees very interesting. Any reasons for the high support in Austria?

[mubar]

Is it confirmed that the Hesse state elections will be held September 22nd?

Yes, already in March. See here for the official announcement:

https://stk.hessen.de/presse/pressemitteilung/hessisches-kabinett-legt-22-september-2013-als-termin-fuer-die-wahl-des

[mubar]

The political caste has been occasionally chattering about the need to reduce the number of states since 1949. Nothing ever comes off it of course - the only reform proposals to engender public support are ones that increase the number of states, not decrease it.

What new states are suggested? (and didn't Baden, Württemberg-Hohenzollern and Baden-Württemberg unite in 52?)

The union to create Baden-Württemberg in 1952 was necessary, because the border between the occupation zones was so problematic. After that there were several proposals to re-create the state of Baden following the old country borders, which used to be larger than the state that existed in 49-52.

Long answer is http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neugliederung_des_Bundesgebietes but to simplify, apart from the Baden-proposals in 1956 and 1970, the most important ones were Oldenburg and Schaumburg-Lippe, both in Lower Saxony. They also had petitions and referenda in 1956 and 1975. These both old countries would be very small states, Oldenburg something like half a million and Schaumburg-Lippe hardly 50000 inhabitants. I think that's the reason that even though their referendums passed, nothing came out of it.

The city of Lübeck is interesting, because it used to be a city state just like Hamburg and Bremen, but had its status taken away by the Nazis. People there also tried to have a referendum for re-creation of the city state in 1956 but failed, and apparently the interest has decreased since then. Understandably, since Lübeck would be a very small state, as it's not a very big city anymore.

In recent decades the most serious suggestion is the state of Franconia in northern and northwestern Bavaria. Franconia has population of 4 million so it wouldn't be a mini-state. In 1990 they collected enough signatures to request a referendum but got declined by the federal ministry of the interior and then later on by the courts too. Anyway, to my understanding is Franconia the only suggested new state with considerable public support, even though there used to be more popular plans.

[mubar]

The union to create Baden-Württemberg in 1952 was necessary, because the border between the occupation zones was so problematic.

That was the official excuse for the blatant Württembergian power grab, yes.

That's very interesting. I knew that Baden was less enthusiastic than Württemberg to form the southwest state, but had never realized that B-W was actually created against the will of most people of Baden.

[mubar]

So once again about one half of Bavaria votes for the continuation of their one-party-system.

* In Franconia there might be a clear swing away from the CSU, particularly in the Nuremberg metro. The reason is that in 2008 the CSU's incumbent governor was Günther Beckstein from Nuremberg. Constituencies like Nürnberg-Nord, Nürnberg-West and Fürth might show much closer results this time, though they are likely still out of reach for the SPD

This actually is something I want to closely follow tonight. If CSU got worse results than in 2008 in Middle Franconia, while at the same time increasing their share with 5 points in Bavaria overall, the region would really stand out. And it's in the realm of possibility: after all, in Nürnberg city council SPD is clearly the strongest party, and in Fürth SPD even has the majority. But of course, with yet another CSU absolute majority in the state, there likely won't be any red constituencies outside München city center.

[mubar]

Guess these numbers could have been expected. But I feel so disappointed that Greens seem to be heading towards their worst result since 1998.

The prospect of CDU/CSU getting an own majority with just 42% is rather curious. If both FDP and AfD are left under the threshold, we are looking at something like 16% of "wasted" vote. But of course if both manage to get in, only something like 6% of vote won't count. Yes, I know why the 5%-limit exists and that it's ruled to be constitutional, but I can't imagine it being particularly nice for any supporter of small parties.