2013 Elections in Germany

[Kevinstat]

Does Germany still have overhang seats?  If only the top four parties get in, it seems that could decide whether CDU/CSU has a majority (it could potentially pull them above or below 50%+1 seat perhaps).

[Kevinstat]

Does Germany still have overhang seats?  If only the top four parties get in, it seems that could decide whether CDU/CSU has a majority (it could potentially pull them above or below 50%+1 seat perhaps).

We now have complete equalization.

Is the total number of seats flexible though?  That could make a difference as to whether the CDU/CSU has exactly half the seats or one more/less (or 1/2 seat more or less than half in the case of an odd number of seats).

What is the seat allocation method among parties making the threshold?

[Kevinstat]

DW now have CDU on 299; Grand Coalition only possible government.

CDU/CSU/Grüne ?

Do you seriously think that would happen?

Well, it's more likely then CDU/CSU/Linke

[Kevinstat]

The woman in the mediacenter link people seemed to act as if the CDU/CSU might form a coalition with the SPD even if they have an absolute majority.  Resident Germans, if the CDU/CSU has a majority of 1, is there any reason why they would form a coalition government?

How are vacancies filled in the Bundestag.  Is a majority of 1 as stable as a huge majority, or is it like Britain when you need a majority of like 20 to last a full term, or is it somewhere in between?

Even if a 1 seat majority is "death-proof," might there be some hotheads with the CDU/CSU caucus who Merkel would be concerned about in a narrow-majority government?

Or is the mediacenter woman deluding herself in acting as if a CDU/CSU majority of 1 absolutely means a CDU/CSU government, period?

[Kevinstat]

A one seat majority is death-proof (again, now that the law has been changed - it wouldn't have been 1995-2012 if dependent on overhang); but the Chancellor is elected in a secret vote at the beginning of the term. There have always been secret defectors. Losing that vote would be the Supergau. That said, not trying when you have a majority would also be virtually impossible.

In Maine, the Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Treasurer and State Auditor are elected by "secret ballot" of the Senators and Representatives in convention, but I've heard that each legislator is given a ballot with the name of each candidate and that party leaders (at least the Democrats, who have held an overall majority in the Legislature since 1980 except for 2010-2012) collect the unused ballots from members of their House and Senate caucuses individually, so they know if they defected (but the general public won't know for sure how their legislators voted, although most legislators probably would proudly admit they supported their party's nominees if asked).  I imagine that isn't the case in the vote for Chancellor in Germany, making secret defections possible and not guaranteeing that you have no political clout in the future.

[Kevinstat]

The law states that constituencies should not deviate by more than 15 and must not deviate by more than 25 (the relevant figure being citizen population). The Bundestag likes to ignore the first half of that harder than the Commission does. The second is, however, ironclad - any constituency that gets dangerously near must be redrawn immediately, as a deviation over 25% on election day could lead to the whole election being annulled.

Also, how is the deviation calculated?

(largest district pop. - smallest district pop.)/mean district pop. (as in the U.S.)
(largest district pop. - smallest district pop.)/either district's pop. (thus always smallest district pop. as that will be larger)
|(given district pop. - ideal district pop.)|/mean district pop. (any given district's deviation from the mean or "ideal" district population)