2013 Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Claudia Roth just said "...all Democratic parties - not AfD, obviously, should they get in - ..."

[Beezer]

So if a party makes it into parliament it is "not democratic"? Green logic I suppose.

[minionofmidas]

FDP vote holding up surprisingly well in superposh urban precincts. Left holding up much much better in the city than in rural parts of the state.

Here's a precinct Al may remember... 441 08, the Platen estate

CDU 84 17,3 %
SPD 218 44,9 %
FDP 5 1,0 %
Greens 58 12,0 %
Left 84 17,3 %
Pirate 12 2,5 %
AfD 17 3,5 %

[Kevinstat]

A one seat majority is death-proof (again, now that the law has been changed - it wouldn't have been 1995-2012 if dependent on overhang); but the Chancellor is elected in a secret vote at the beginning of the term. There have always been secret defectors. Losing that vote would be the Supergau. That said, not trying when you have a majority would also be virtually impossible.

In Maine, the Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Treasurer and State Auditor are elected by "secret ballot" of the Senators and Representatives in convention, but I've heard that each legislator is given a ballot with the name of each candidate and that party leaders (at least the Democrats, who have held an overall majority in the Legislature since 1980 except for 2010-2012) collect the unused ballots from members of their House and Senate caucuses individually, so they know if they defected (but the general public won't know for sure how their legislators voted, although most legislators probably would proudly admit they supported their party's nominees if asked).  I imagine that isn't the case in the vote for Chancellor in Germany, making secret defections possible and not guaranteeing that you have no political clout in the future.

[Beezer]

No CDU politician will want to weaken Merkel though at the zenith of her power.

[minionofmidas]

3 or 4 seats will definitely not be a problem. 1... it's impossible to predict.

[jaichind]

No CDU politician will want to weaken Merkel though at the zenith of her power.

Yes,  but what if someone were to offer a handful of CDU politicians cash in the case that Merkel loses the vote for Chancellor if it comes down to a tiny CDU/CSU majority.  In fact, I think back in 1972 the Stasi was able to bribe a couple of CDU MPs to vote against a possible CDU led government. 

[ag]

Looks like FDP is not going to make it.  Too bad.  That is the only German party I like.

In full sad agreement

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt Innenstadt (my Stadtteil) with change on 2009

turnout 61.6 (-1.7) CDU 30.1 (+4.5) SPD 24.1 (+5.8) Greens 14.7 (-4.1) Left 10.3 (-0.8) FDP 9.5 (-9.4) AfD 5.7 Pirates 3.5

Nied
turnout 63.8 (-2.3) CDU 35.4 (+5.7) SPD 30.7 (+5.3) Greens 8.9 (-2.4) Left 8.6 (-3.0) FDP 4.8 (-9.9) AfD 5.8 Pirates 2.1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's a precinct Al may remember... 441 08, the Platen estate

CDU 84 17,3 %
SPD 218 44,9 %
FDP 5 1,0 %
Greens 58 12,0 %
Left 84 17,3 %
Pirate 12 2,5 %
AfD 17 3,5 %

Ah, yes...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

3 or 4 seats will definitely not be a problem. 1... it's impossible to predict.

Because you only need one absolute fruitcake who is also laughably bitter at the leadership. And all big parties...

[jaichind]

ZDF now has CDU/CSU tie with SPD+Linke+Greens in terms of seats.

[Beezer]

Red-Red-Green majority according to ARD.

[minionofmidas]

ARD has them behind again. (ninja'd)And AfD still at 4.9.

Do I want a Grand Coalition and a longterm end to the SPD? Do I want a fake majority for Merkel (but, of course, a redredgreen majority would be even faker, nevermind impossible on these numbers) and puke for four years straight?

[Nichlemn]

Merkel approval rating among ALL voters:

80-17 approve

(ZDF)

By party:

97% CDU/CSU
90% FDP
60% AfD
43% Left
39% Greens
18% SPD

I would have thought approval of Merkel would be negatively correlated with how left-wing the party is. Is it just partisanship explaining the low SPD approval?

[minionofmidas]

ARD says AfD got few former SPD and Green votes but a lot of Left ones (as well as CDU, nonvoting, and especially FDP.)

[minionofmidas]

Merkel approval rating among ALL voters:

80-17 approve

(ZDF)

By party:

97% CDU/CSU
90% FDP
60% AfD
43% Left
39% Greens
18% SPD

I would have thought approval of Merkel would be negatively correlated with how left-wing the party is. Is it just partisanship explaining the low SPD approval?

Class and East German origin issues also play into that.

[jaichind]

Does Germany allows for a minority government where CDU/CSU falls short of majority but leads the government by itself with the three opposition parities supporting the government on an issue-by-issue basis.  Sort of what took place in Canada in 2006-2008.

[ObserverIE]

ARD has them behind again. (ninja'd)And AfD still at 4.9.

Do I want a Grand Coalition and a longterm end to the SPD? Do I want a fake majority for Merkel (but, of course, a redredgreen majority would be even faker, nevermind impossible on these numbers) and puke for four years straight?

Black-Green?

[minionofmidas]

Does Germany allows for a minority government where CDU/CSU falls short of majority but leads the government by itself with the three opposition parities supporting the government on an issue-by-issue basis.  Sort of what took place in Canada in 2006-2008.

In principle, yes. It's untested, and you do need someone to vote for you for Chancellor, though.

[buritobr]

How much steel was produced in Germany in 2013? The vote on the SPD is usually close to the production of steel in Germany.

[jaichind]

Does Germany allows for a minority government where CDU/CSU falls short of majority but leads the government by itself with the three opposition parities supporting the government on an issue-by-issue basis.  Sort of what took place in Canada in 2006-2008.

In principle, yes. It's untested, and you do need someone to vote for you for Chancellor, though.

Is the vote for Chancellor on an absolute majority basis or relative majority basis? Meaning, could not some of the opposition parties MP just abstain. 

[minionofmidas]

Final district (not constituency) results
City of Frankenthal
CDU 43.3 (+6.6), SPD 27.3 (+3.2), Greens 6.7 (-1.3), Left 6.1 (-4.8), AfD 5.3, FDP 5.0 (-9.4), Pirates 2.4 (+0.8). Turnout 68.5 (-0.3)
City of Pirmasens
CDU 40.7 (+9.0), SPD 29.7 (+6.1), Left 7.6 (-7.4), FDP 5.0 (-9.7), AfD 4.6, Greens 3.6 (-2.7), Pirates 2.7 (+0.8), REP 2.5 (-0.4). Turnout 63.8 (+0.5)
City of Zweibrücken
CDU 37.2 (+9.7), SPD 31.2 (+5.8), Left 8.2 (-8.0), Greens 6.3 (-2.0), FDP 4.9 (-9.9), AfD 4.9, Pirates 3.0 (+0.2). Turnout 65.2 (-1.6)
Kusel district
SPD 36.4 (+5.9), CDU 32.9 (+7.6), Left 9.1 (-8.7), Greens 5.8 (-1.6), AfD 4.6, FDP 3.6 (-8.6), Pirates 2.3 (+0.5). Turnout 72.5 (+0.5)

[jaichind]

I would think for FDP to survive they would need a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition government.  Make sense ?  

[minionofmidas]

Does Germany allows for a minority government where CDU/CSU falls short of majority but leads the government by itself with the three opposition parities supporting the government on an issue-by-issue basis.  Sort of what took place in Canada in 2006-2008.

In principle, yes. It's untested, and you do need someone to vote for you for Chancellor, though.

Is the vote for Chancellor on an absolute majority basis or relative majority basis? Meaning, could not some of the opposition parties MP just abstain. 

You need an absolute majority of the actual size of parliament (so being to sick to attend is the same as voting no) in a secret vote. If no one gets one in three rounds of voting, the President gets to decide whether the top vote getter gets to be Chancellor or there's new elections.

I would think for FDP to survive they would need a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition government.  Make sense ? 

And no AfD entry. Yes. That would ensure it (not that it's impossible otherwise, of coruse)