2013 Elections in Germany

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Except that although the SPD and Labour have a lot in common, there are important differences that we should be careful not to forget. At least in terms of the idea of 'moving to the centre' and so on, like and like aren't being compared.

For instance, the postwar SPD was never as far to the left as Labour had (semi-accidentally, but that's not important in this context) ended up being by the mid 1980s; unless I'm very wrong (and I'm never wrong) the SPD did not lose repeatedly to Kohl because they were 'too left-wing'. Although Labour was never a Marxist party, it didn't stop officially believing in utopia until the revision of Clause IV in 1995 - the equivalent moment for the SPD was in 1959.

[jaichind]

It seems that AfD might get above 5%.  If so the CDU/CSU-FDP will not get a majority for sure.  Anyone know which site the artcile is talking about "An Internet-based exchange that allows investors to buy and sell “shares” of parties with real money"?

-----------------------------

German Anti-Euro Party May Win More Votes Than Polls Show

By Rainer Buergin
Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- German polling company chiefs said they may be underreporting voter support for the country’s five-month old Alternative for Germany -- a party that rejects the euro -- partly because some of its backers won’t reveal how they plan to vote in interviews.
People who don’t support the established parties aren’t always willing to express their opinions and this may add as much as 2.5 percentage points to a core of sympathizers that represents around 2.5 percent of the voters, TNS Emnid chief Klaus-Peter Schoeppner and Forsa head Manfred Guellner said in telephone interviews.
“I’m unsure as to what’s really below the visible tip of the iceberg” in support for the AfD, Guellner said. “We have them at 2-3 percent in the polls right now, but I don’t know what’s below the waterline.”
Underreporting of the AfD’s potential may yield a surprise result on election night that denies Chancellor Angela Merkel the option of continuing her coalition with the Free Democrats. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble’s announcement that Greece needs a third aid program may have given the AfD a boost by putting the euro region crisis back on the agenda.
“We occasionally get tips from informants” at polling companies that actual support is higher than reported support, AfD chairman Bernd Lucke said today at a press conference in Berlin. He said the party would poll as high as 8 percent at Forsa and above 5 percent at Allensbach if results were adjusted differently. Forsa’s latest polls puts the AfD at 2 percent and Allensbach at 3 percent.

Hidden Supporters
Asked about Lucke’s comments, Forsa’s Guellner said his company treats the AfD like any other party, cautioning though that its number of unreported supporters may be larger than for other parties. Forsa won’t change its polling methodology, he said.
“As far as we’re concerned, this is completely made up,” Allensbach chief Renate Koecher said in a phone interview. “We don’t have the AfD higher in the raw data than what we publish.”
An Internet-based exchange that allows investors to buy and sell “shares” of parties with real money had the AfD at 6.46 percent support at 3:48 p.m. Such a result would limit coalition options for the election winner.
Schaeuble’s mention of a third Greek program “doesn’t benefit the opposition parties, in other words the SPD and the Greens, because they had to back the bailout packages due to the state-supporting roles they play,” Guellner said. “It’s the AfD that benefits.”

AfD Rises
The AfD rose two percentage points to 3 percent in a weekly Emnid poll for Bild am Sonntag newspaper yesterday, the first survey taken after Schaeuble’s Aug. 20 comments on Greece.
While the AfD’s election platform rests mainly on the rejection of the euro, which the party says overburdens the currency union’s weaker members without benefiting Germany, some of its supporters will cast their votes for other reasons as well, Guellner said.
“The AfD pushes into a segment of German society that has always been somewhat difficult, a segment of the middle class that worries about losing its status, that feels crushed between the top and bottom,” Guellner said. “Many of them don’t talk to us and that’s why we have unreported numbers.”
While 3 percent of poll respondents are committed to backing the AfD, 8 percent are considering voting for the party on Sept. 22, Koecher said in an Aug. 21 Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung article.

‘Talk Up’
Before 1996 elections in three western German states, Forsa predicted that parties of the “radical right” would miss the 5 percent hurdle required to win seats in parliament, Guellner said. Still, Die Republikaner, a far-right party that warns against mass immigration and wants the deutsche mark back, got almost 10 percent at the time in Baden-Wuerttemberg, almost twice Forsa’s prediction.
Koecher, in an April 1996 interview with Der Spiegel magazine, said she expected the Republikaner to get more votes than the 4.5 percent Allensbach measured and published then, but decided to keep quiet because she was concerned it would be interpreted as an attempt to “talk up” the party.
“We conduct representative polls, but there are certain groups we can’t capture,” Guellner said. Based on the 1996 forecast experience, turnout for the AfD “may be double of what we measure now” on Sept. 22 Election Day.
Lucke said the AfD has received a “noticeable” increase in support over the past two to three weeks, with more people attending rallies and speaking to party officials in the streets.

[Beezer]

Could be this one:

http://boerse.prognosys.de/markt/btw-de-2013

[Hans-im-Glück]

http://www2.fr-online.de/bundestags-wahlhelfer/index.php

Greens 72%
SPD 62%
Left 55%
FDP 34%
CDU/CSU 10%

FDP is a little bit to high, but the rest is OK

[Tender Branson]

How do you think the Syria-situation will impact the election ?

Probably no effect on the main parties, slight gains for the Greens and the Left ?

Losses for the Pirates, because the spy-scandal is being side-lined ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

How do you think the Syria-situation will impact the election ?

Probably no effect on the main parties, slight gains for the Greens and the Left ?

Probably nil, considering that the Syria military intervention is supposed to be over by this sunday or so. It would only effect the election if the intervention continues till election day and Merkel supports military action. Which is why she won't.

Losses for the Pirates, because the spy-scandal is being side-lined ?

Not really, since the Pirates didn't gain from the NSA scandal in the first place.

[minionofmidas]

Well, the pretty likely resulting prolonged direct American involvement in a still-continuing civil war.

[Vosem]

http://www2.fr-online.de/bundestags-wahlhelfer/index.php

FDP 45%
CDU/CSU 31%
The Greens 21%
SPD 21%
The Left 17%

Skewed down by my answering 'ich bin unsicher' to maybe 1/3 of the questions where I didn't have the foggiest clue what they were asking. But the basic order is consistent with what I thought.

[Leftbehind]

Compared to the SPD, Labour's move to the center has definitely been far more successful and, more importantly, enduring. Schröder introduced Agenda 2010 and was ousted two years later (barely admittedly), with the SPD hovering around 25% of the vote now thanks to the infighting (imo). Blair was elected on the New Labour manifesto and re-elected twice. I'd say that's a pretty good track record for New Labour regardless of what its members now think of it. It has left a lasting mark on the party that will be quite difficult to shake off.

Again, this pays little attention to the electoral system - and how that can't be replicated in a system where left-wing voters have alternatives.

And if it hadn't been for the weird leadership electoral system, a Blairite would be at the head of the party today.

But under OMOV, David would've lost the advantage he had amongst the PLP, and you'd be merging the Members and Affiliated sections, resulting in latter having more power from their diluted origin (weighted down to make up a third). Either way, the fact that it was competitive in the first place, given Ed's awkward disposition - I think, anyway - speaks volume.

[minionofmidas]

There is little reason to assume David M would have done as well in a "normal", delegates system.

[RogueBeaver]

Merkel blames Schroder for allowing Greece's EU admission back in 2001.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Frankfurter Rundschau - Wahlhelfer

I did not intend to have the CDU at zero. It just happened.

Greens: 76%
Linke: 59%
SPD: 52%
FDP: 17%
CDU/CSU: 0%

By the way, early voting in Leipzig (technically mail voting, but you can also cast your vote directly in the town hall) did start yesterday and 185 people already voted.

[minionofmidas]

http://kandidatencheck.spiegel.de/

Sort of a test but you need to enter a zip code and get compared with direct candidates, and some have not cooperated, so that makes it kind of useless.

My result
Left 20/24 (and those four were the ones I voted neutral on, lol. She took a position on everything)
PARTEI 18/24
Greens, Pirates tied at 17
FW 10
CDU 5
FDP 4 (including a neutral one, lol)
SPD, NPD, REP, Büso did not take part. Eh.

[You kip if you want to...]

Merkel blames Schroder for allowing Greece's EU admission back in 2001.

Wow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is little reason to assume David M would have done as well in a "normal", delegates system.

There's every reason to assume that he'd have done considerably worse. The candidate who would have really benefited would have been the one I voted for (but probably wouldn't have if I thought he had any chance of winning).

[Hans-im-Glück]

http://kandidatencheck.spiegel.de/

My Result for the constituency Hof/Bavaria (The FDP-candidate did not part)

Left 22/24
Greens 21/24
SPD 19/24
AfD 14/24
CSU 7/24

[Beezer]

My Wahlomat score...maybe I oughta color my country outline blue.

[Middle-aged Europe]

My wahl-o-mat ranking was:

1. Greens
2. Pirates
3. Left
4. SPD
5. AfD
6. FDP
7. CDU/CSU
8. NPD

[Tender Branson]

1. Pirates - 82%
2. Left - 81%
3. Greens - 77%
4. SPD - 73%
5. NPD - 62%
6. FDP - 56%
7. AfD  - 46%
8. CDU/CSU - 43%

NPD seems relatively high up there.

[RedPrometheus]

SPD: 87%
Die Linke: 81,5%
Greens: 80,4%
Die Partei: 79,3%
Pirates: 73,9%
FDP: 55,4%
CDU/CSU: 41,3%
AfD: 38%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Blank constituency map, with inserts for Berlin and Hamburg. Feel free to use for whatever purpose thou dost feel like, etc.

There will probably be a couple of errors: am happy to correct when/if they're pointed out.

[Franknburger]

Blank constituency map, with inserts for Berlin and Hamburg. Feel free to use for whatever purpose thou dost feel like, etc.

There will probably be a couple of errors: am happy to correct when/if they're pointed out.

Did not know you were already working on a base map, otherwise, I would have posted this one earlier - current FPTP projection from http://www.election.de/


The Cologne and Munich inserts might come in handily.

Official maps in various formats are available for download here

And, for comparison (and probably the easiest way to get a correct 2013 constituency map, although it is not blank), here the 2009 FPTP map, adjusted according to 2013 constituencies, from the German Wikipedia. CSU (Bavaria) is coloured in a darker blue than CDU.


Link to the above map in .svg format

Angie's constituency is in the most north-eastern corner. Per Steinbrück runs in Mettmann I (the elongated, blue constituency just east of 2009  reddish Cologne).

[Sozialliberal]

- Linke and Piraten will almost surely fall below the 5% hurdle, so it might be better anyway to vote Grüne and/or SPD (last time I splitted my votes between SPD and Grüne, which in Bavaria means real proportional vote splitting, differently from the federal case)

"Die Linke" will almost certainly be represented in the Bundestag after the coming election for two reasons. Firstly, they have their loyal voters in the east. Secondly, they could benefit from a special electoral law: A party is excepted from the 5 per cent hurdle if it wins at least three direct mandates. In German federal elections, you have two votes: The first vote is for an individual candidate who runs in your constituency and the second vote is for a party list. The seats that are won with first votes are known as "direct mandates" (Direktmandate) and the seats that are won with second votes are known as "list mandates" (Listenmandate). There are two constituencies in the east of Berlin that are safe seats for "Die Linke": Lichtenberg and Marzahn-Hellersdorf. "Die Linke" and their predecessor party PDS have held the direct mandates of these two constituencies since the 1990 election. Treptow-Köpenick, another constituency in the east of Berlin, used to be held by the SPD until the 2005 election. Gregor Gysi, one of the best known and most popular politicians of "Die Linke", won the Treptow-Köpenick seat in 2005 and again in 2009. They won 16 direct mandates in total in the last election. So "Die Linke" have a good chance of winning three direct mandates in this election. Interetingly, their predecessor party PDS has been the only party since the 1957 election that has benefited from that electoral law. In the 1994 election, they won 30 seats even though they only won 4.4 % of the federal vote. The PDS was excepted from the hurdle because they won four direct mandates. Unsurprisingly, they won all four of them in the east of Berlin.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

- Linke and Piraten will almost surely fall below the 5% hurdle, so it might be better anyway to vote Grüne and/or SPD (last time I splitted my votes between SPD and Grüne, which in Bavaria means real proportional vote splitting, differently from the federal case)

"Die Linke" will almost certainly be represented in the Bundestag after the coming election for two reasons. Firstly, they have their loyal voters in the east. Secondly, they could benefit from a special electoral law: A party is excepted from the 5 per cent hurdle if it wins at least three direct mandates. In German federal elections, you have two votes: The first vote is for an individual candidate who runs in your constituency and the second vote is for a party list. The seats that are won with first votes are known as "direct mandates" (Direktmandate) and the seats that are won with second votes are known as "list mandates" (Listenmandate). There are two constituencies in the east of Berlin that are safe seats for "Die Linke": Lichtenberg and Marzahn-Hellersdorf. "Die Linke" and their predecessor party PDS have held the direct mandates of these two constituencies since the 1990 election. Treptow-Köpenick, another constituency in the east of Berlin, used to be held by the SPD until the 2005 election. Gregor Gysi, one of the best known and most popular politicians of "Die Linke", won the Treptow-Köpenick seat in 2005 and again in 2009. So "Die Linke" have a good chance of winning three direct mandates in this election. Interetingly, their predecessor party PDS has been the only party since the 1957 election that has benefited from that electoral law. In the 1994 election, they won 30 seats even though they only won 4.4 % of the federal vote. The PDS was excepted from the hurdle because they won four direct mandates. Unsurprisingly, they won all four of them in the east of Berlin.

Palandio is talking about the Bayern State Election, not the federal election.

[Sozialliberal]

- Linke and Piraten will almost surely fall below the 5% hurdle, so it might be better anyway to vote Grüne and/or SPD (last time I splitted my votes between SPD and Grüne, which in Bavaria means real proportional vote splitting, differently from the federal case)

"Die Linke" will almost certainly be represented in the Bundestag after the coming election for two reasons. Firstly, they have their loyal voters in the east. Secondly, they could benefit from a special electoral law: A party is excepted from the 5 per cent hurdle if it wins at least three direct mandates. In German federal elections, you have two votes: The first vote is for an individual candidate who runs in your constituency and the second vote is for a party list. The seats that are won with first votes are known as "direct mandates" (Direktmandate) and the seats that are won with second votes are known as "list mandates" (Listenmandate). There are two constituencies in the east of Berlin that are safe seats for "Die Linke": Lichtenberg and Marzahn-Hellersdorf. "Die Linke" and their predecessor party PDS have held the direct mandates of these two constituencies since the 1990 election. Treptow-Köpenick, another constituency in the east of Berlin, used to be held by the SPD until the 2005 election. Gregor Gysi, one of the best known and most popular politicians of "Die Linke", won the Treptow-Köpenick seat in 2005 and again in 2009. So "Die Linke" have a good chance of winning three direct mandates in this election. Interetingly, their predecessor party PDS has been the only party since the 1957 election that has benefited from that electoral law. In the 1994 election, they won 30 seats even though they only won 4.4 % of the federal vote. The PDS was excepted from the hurdle because they won four direct mandates. Unsurprisingly, they won all four of them in the east of Berlin.

Palandio is talking about the Bayern State Election, not the federal election.

Sorry, I overlooked that they meant the election in Bavaria. My bad! However, I think that these are interesting facts nonetheless.