2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

GMS, 06.03.2013, Bavaria State Election:

CSU: 48%
SPD: 21%
Grüne: 12%
FW: 8%

FDP: 3%
Linke: 3%
Piraten: 2%

Easy CSU absolute majority (48-41).

GMS also published figures for the federal election (Bavaria only)

CSU: 49%
SPD: 21%
Grüne: 14%
FW: 2%

FDP: 4%
Linke: 3%
Piraten: 3%
Others: 4%

Interesting "redistribution" of state-level FW voters (-6): CSU 1, SPD 0, Grüne 2, FDP 1, Pirates 1, Others (DVU?, NPD?) 1.

Results are a bit outdated (polling from Feb 4-12, before the Italian elections), but better to have outdated figures than none at all.

[ERvND]

GMS, 06.03.2013, Bavaria State Election:

CSU: 48%
SPD: 21%
Grüne: 12%
FW: 8%

FDP: 3%
Linke: 3%
Piraten: 2%

Easy CSU absolute majority (48-41).

These numbers sound about right. Actually, Bavaria is one of the few states where I see the FDP below 5%. The party is traditionally weak there, and with the CSU covering virtually every issue and taking every position from left to right, FDP voters can as well vote CSU.

It's possible, however, that we see lower FW numbers on election day. As the survey quoted by Franknburger shows, their core support (in non-communal elections) is not very big, and as the CSU has regained its strenght, the FW appeal as "a better CSU" might vanish.

[Franknburger]

GMS, 06.03.2013, Bavaria State Election:

CSU: 48%
SPD: 21%
Grüne: 12%
FW: 8%

FDP: 3%
Linke: 3%
Piraten: 2%

Easy CSU absolute majority (48-41).

These numbers sound about right. Actually, Bavaria is one of the few states where I see the FDP below 5%. The party is traditionally weak there, and with the CSU covering virtually every issue and taking every position from left to right, FDP voters can as well vote CSU.

It's possible, however, that we see lower FW numbers on election day. As the survey quoted by Franknburger shows, their core support (in non-communal elections) is not very big, and as the CSU has regained its strenght, the FW appeal as "a better CSU" might vanish.

I tend to interprete the data the other way round: 48-49% appears to be the 'high water mark' for the CSU (bye, bye 50+X). Even if the FW's appeal as 'a better CSU' might vanish (which is anything but apparent, looking at the state elections poll), most of FW voters are not coming 'home' to the CSU, but disperse in various directions.

Let's not call the Bavarian election too early. Firstly, together with the state elections there will be the referendum on university tuition fees, which might drive turnout, and should go against CSU & FDP. Secondly, the Constutional Court will before the summer rule on the tax discrimination of gay couples. It is widely expected that this discrimination - which is the last remaining substantial difference between 'gay partnerships' and  married couples - will be ruled unconstitutional,  following similar decisions of the Federal Tax Court (BFH) and a number of tax courts in various states. This will make gay marriage  - or rather tax reform for couples and parents - a prime election issue, where the CSU can only lose (they either drive moderates and unmarried couples towards SPD / Greens, or alienate their conservative base, which may swing to the FW or abstain).

Thirdly, as I have been demonstrating in my Germany Employment Maps thread, the Bavarian economy is quite dependent on solar and car manufacturing. The collapse of solar manufacturers has already left traces on the labour market (e.g. Erlangen region). Demand decrease for cars has so far mostly hit Ford (short-time in their Cologne and Saarlouis plants), Opel (announced closure of the Bochum plant) and Daimler-Benz (profit warning), but may sooner or later also reach Bavaria. If BMW and Audi go on short-time, and their suppliers announce lay-offs, the CSU's current strength could quickly melt away.

[palandio]

Interesting "redistribution" of state-level FW voters (-6): CSU 1, SPD 0, Grüne 2, FDP 1, Pirates 1, Others (DVU?, NPD?) 1.

I would be very, very cautios about such inferences.

Some interesting observations on the comparison of polls and actual results:

2008 Bavarian state election:
pre-election polling consensus (mean of latest five polls from wahlrecht.de) vs. election itself:
CSU      48.2% vs. 43.4%
SPD      19.8% vs. 18.6%
Greens 8.8% vs. 9.4%
FDP       7.6% vs. 8.0%
Left       4.2% vs. 4.3%
FW        7.4% vs. 10.2%
Others  4.0% vs. 6.1%

2009 German federal election, Bavarian results:
GMS Sept 17 vs. election itself:
CSU       46% vs. 42.5%
SPD       17% vs. 16.8%
Greens 12% vs. 10.8%
FDP        14% vs. 14.7%
Left        5% vs. 6.5%
Others  6% vs. 8.7% (8.7% was the highest percentage of others of all Länder!)

Interpretation:
- CSU was overestimated both times. Pollsters tend to underestimate large swings. They could have adjusted their models now, but CDU/CSU underperforming their polls is what is to be expected normally.

- There was a consistent, though very heterogenous part of the electorate that voted FW in the state election and did not come back to the CSU in the federal election. (In fact, the CSU did worse in the 2009 federal election.) Instead many of them voted REP, BP, OeDP or even the Left. Both the FW and the "others" have overperformed their polling numbers both times.

[ERvND]

I tend to interprete the data the other way round: 48-49% appears to be the 'high water mark' for the CSU (bye, bye 50+X). Even if the FW's appeal as 'a better CSU' might vanish (which is anything but apparent, looking at the state elections poll), most of FW voters are not coming 'home' to the CSU, but disperse in various directions.

It's true, 48-49% seems to be the new "high water mark" for the CSU. That's more than enough for them, however. Even with 43%, they missed an absolute majority by only two seats, if I remember correctly. So it has always been clear that something around 45% would suffice for a renewed absolute majority. In the current political climate, that's absolutely given.

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The referendum is cancelled, as the FDP backed down and agreed to abolish the fees trough a parliamentary decision.

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I don't think this will be a major issue. If it turns out to be one, Seehofer will clear it away in time, as he's done with every controversial issue.

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Remember that the election will take place in six months, and the Bavarian economy is still very stable today. For a substantial shift during this time, the economic collapse would have to be of epic proportions. And even in this case, Bavaria would still be better off than most other states, which is, after all, the CSU's main argument for everything.

@ palandio: Sure, the CSU was overestimated the last times, but that was largely due to the underestimation of FW and, to a lesser extent, FDP. The newer polls include a substantial support for the FW (8% is not nothing, after all), and in consequence, the CSU is relatively weak, at 48%. As I wrote above, however, that's still more than enough for them.

[Tender Branson]

Greens reach a new record high for this year in the new ARD poll:



Job approvals:



Merkel vs. Steinbrück Chancellor vote:



Steinbrück should "say what he thinks" or "say it in a diplomatic way":



Gay Marriage Equality support overall and by party:



http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend1680.html

[Franknburger]

And here is the poll I have been waiting for, because it includes a lot of background information:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (for ZDF), 08.03.13:

Party lean - the pure, unedited raw polling stuff (Changes againt Jan 29, 2013)

CDU       46 (+5)
SPD       26 (-7)  !!
Grüne     14 (-!)
FDP        3 ()
Linke      6 (+1)

others (including Pirates!)   5 (+2)

Non-voters           11% (-3)
Unsure if voting    13% ()

Steinbrück's remark has obviously hurt the SPD and helped the CDU, which also may have piccked some of the previous poll's 'non-voters'. There indeed seems to be a bit of Linke uptick, although I don't have any idea why.

And their projection (the edited version)

CDU       41 (+1)
SPD       28 (-2)
Grüne     14 ()
FDP        4 ()
Linke      7 (+1)
others    6 ()

So their projection is essentially shifting 1% CDU 'loan votes' to FDP, 1% to "others", 3% to SPD (compensation of short-term swing), and 1% from SPD to Linke.
They have stopped to show separate figures for the Pirates, which is telling by itself.

Prefered Coalition:
SPD/Grüne                        22 (-3)
CDU / SPD                        24  (-2)
CDU/FPD                           13  (+2)
None of the above              41 (+3)

Black-green, here we come ?

Prefered Chancelor:
Merkel                             62 ()
Steinbrück                       27 (-2)

Personal Ratings:
Merkel                             2.1 (+0.1)
Steinbrück                       0.0 (- 0.5)

Steinbrück and the Clowns - the remarks were rather
good                             26%
bad                               71%
don't know                      3%

Is Peer Steinbrück the right candidate?
All respondents:            31 yes, 55 no
SPD leners                    54 yes, 39 no
Green leaners               32 yes, 59 no

[Franknburger]

Let's not call the Bavarian election too early. Firstly, together with the state elections there will be the referendum on university tuition fees, which might drive turnout, and should go against CSU & FDP.

The referendum is cancelled, as the FDP backed down and agreed to abolish the fees trough a parliamentary decision.

Did not know that. CSU & FDP are no idiots, they obviously saw what was coming up ..

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I don't think this will be a major issue. If it turns out to be one, Seehofer will clear it away in time, as he's done with every controversial issue.

Instead of a direct reply, here some more results from today's ZDF Politbarometer:

Equal treatment of homosexual couples is important:
All respondents                            52%
CDU/CSU                                    44%
SPD                                            59%
Grüne                                         64%
Linke                                          69%

Note how the question has been formulated!

Should the CDU focus more on traditional conservative issues ?

Yes                                          21%  (CDU/CSU leaners: 21%)
No, don't change                      31%  (CDU/ CSU leaners 44%)
Become less conservative          38% (CDU/ CSU leaners 30%)

[Leftbehind]

Steinbrück and the Clowns - the remarks were rather
good                             26%
bad                               71%
don't know                      3%

Is that testamant to how unrepresentative self-selecting online polls are, or has the media line swung heavily against him in recent days?

[Dereich]

Here's something interesting from that poll, via the Twitter account https://twitter.com/electionista:

Germany FGW/ZDF poll - preferred Chancellor among Linke voters: Merkel 41%, Steinbrück 27%

[Tender Branson]

Steinbrück and the Clowns - the remarks were rather
good                             26%
bad                               71%
don't know                      3%

Is that testamant to how unrepresentative self-selecting online polls are, or has the media line swung heavily against him in recent days?

The ZDF poll is not an online poll, but a phone poll.

ZDF polls also tend to be accurate, because they are one of the two exit pollsters.

[Leftbehind]

Nah, I meant the Spiegel poll Franknburger had been earlier chronicling, which shown a 50/50 split, narrowly in favour of his comments.

[Franknburger]

Steinbrück and the Clowns - the remarks were rather
good                             26%
bad                               71%
don't know                      3%

Is that testamant to how unrepresentative self-selecting online polls are, or has the media line swung heavily against him in recent days?

The ZDF poll is not an online poll, but a phone poll.

ZDF polls also tend to be accurate, because they are one of the two exit pollsters.

Well, their exit polls typically show a slight CDU lean, which became especially apparent in the nail-biting 2002 election, when until shortly before midnight, their projection had black-yellow in front, while ARD had for already some hours correctly projected the razor-thin red-green victory.
Edit: Note in this respect, e.g., that Thursday's ARD poll had a 37 pro / 62 contra rating for Steinbrück's remarks (though the question was formulated a bit softer), while in yesterday's ZDF poll, it was 26 /71.
But I appreciate their polling for being quite detailed and going beyond the usual horse-race top numbers.

Nah, I meant the Spiegel poll Franknburger had been earlier chronicling, which shown a 50/50 split, narrowly in favour of his comments.

I haven't noticed much of a media swing against Steinbrück, as there were other issues making the headlines over the last days (I will do a separate post on this later). So it has probably a lot to do with self-selection, though, given the high number of Italian immigrants in Germany, I would not outrule the possibility that an initially positive response to  Steinbrück has been reversed in individual discussions at the work-place, the sports club, or with the Pizzeria owner next door.

In any case, the latest polls show that, while there are quite a number of dissatisfied conservative and euro-sceptic CDU voters, any attempts of the SPD to tap into that potential will be futile, and may ultimately result in losing more moderates than gaining right-wingers.  

[minionofmidas]

So there was a mayoral election in Wiesbaden two weeks ago.

First round
Müller (CDU, i) 48.0%
Gerich (SPD) 38.4% which was more than had been expected
Green candidate 9.3%
some indy running as "Mitte" ("Center") 3.0%
another indy 1.2%
Turnout a paltry 33.6%

The Greens did endorse the Social Democrat for the runoff, but Müller was still widely expected to be reelected. Sunday's runoff result

Gerich (SPD) 50.8%
Müller (CDU, i) 49.2%
turnout 34.1%

and of Hesse's 12 Lord Mayors the CDU is down to Fulda and Rüsselsheim (SPD 7, Greens Darmstadt, a de-facto Green "Independent" in Bad Homburg, and FDP in Wetzlar - he was first elected in 1997 and has been reelected triumphally twice. Oh and in the last election in Rüsselsheim the SPD got eliminated in round one - just as in Darmstadt - and the CDU guy beat the Green 50.4-49.6 in the runoff).

[Franknburger]

Polling update:

EMNID, March 10
CDU         40 ()
SPD         27 ()
Grüne      15 ()
Linke         8 (+1)

FDP          4 (-1)
Piraten      3 ()
Others      3 ()

INSA / YouGov, Mar 12
CDU        40 (-1)
SPD        27 (+1)
Grüne     16 (+1)
Linke        6 (-1)

FDP          5 ()
Piraten     2 (-1)
Others     4 (+1)


Mainly statistical noise.

[Tender Branson]

SPD keeps dropping close to their 2009 low (Forsa already has them at 24%):

[Franknburger]

Another polling update
Forsa, 13.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU:        40% ()
SPD:                24% (-1)
Grüne:             16% (+1)
Linke:                8% ()

FDP:                  4% ()             
Piraten:             3% ()
Others:             5% ()

Same trends as ARD (infratest dimap): SPD in decline, Greens stabilising at their highest levels since Autumn 2011.

[LastVoter]

Cem Özdemir as chancellor would be awesome.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cem Özdemir as chancellor would be awesome.

Yeah, I'd love to see the Greens overtake the SPD. The SPD needs to be kicked in the ass for their incompetence and stupidity.

[Franzl]

Emnid, 17.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 28%
Grüne: 16%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Red-Green close to a majority (44-47).

[Kitteh]

I'm late to this, but I just looked back over this thread and I'm surprised at the high level of support for gay equality among Linke voters. I thought a lot of their support was from rather socially conservative folks, but I guess not.

[Franknburger]

In order for non-German readers to better understand reasons for recent polling trends (Green upswing, SPD decline, CDU stagnation or slight decline), here an update on the latest news in relation to major transport sector projects:

Stuttgart 21: This controversial project to completely rebuild the railway network inside and around Stuttgart is commonly regarded as prime reason for the Green's electoral successes in the Baden-Würtemberg state and Stuttgart mayoral elections. In late February, an internal report for Deutsche Bahn was leaked, which predicted an additional cost increase of up to 2 bn €, and concluded that the project would never had been started if its actual costs had been known from the outset. On March 5, Deutsche Bahn's supervisory board, upon Chancellor Merkel's public endorsement, approved continuation of the project in spite of the projected cost increase.  Baden-Würtemberg's PM Kretschmann (Greens) criticised that alternative, less costly scenarios had not been considered, and denied any contribution of his state to funding the cost increase. His state-level junior partner SPD, remaining committed to the project, has been accusing Kretschmann of violating the coalition agreement. In the meantime, polls are showing 54% of Baden-Würtemberg's citizens now wanting the project to be abandoned, despite a 59% approval in the 2011 referendum on Stuttgart 21.
http://www.dw.de/german-rail-company-board-backs-stuttgart-21-project-despite-cost-blowout/a-16647777
http://www.thelocal.de/society/20130226-48205.html#.UUXBPlAwfiw

Berlin-Brandenburg Airport The airport was originally envisaged to be inaugurated in late 2011 at a cost of 1.7 bn Euros. Due to numerous technical and managerial problems, the opening has been postponed to at least late 2014 (definite date to be announced this Summer), and latest estimates put total cost at somewhere around 4.7 bn €. 
On March 8, Federal Minister of Transport Peter Ramsauer introduced Hartwig Mehdorn, former CEO of Deutsche Bahn and Berlin Air, as new boss of the airport management company. The decision received mixed public response. My local newspaper, e.g., put in a cartoon saying "Finally they have put somebody in charge who is experienced with delays", referring to significant deterioration of Deutsche Bahn's service quality under Mehdorn's leadership. Berlin's Grüne leader Künast stated "What is needed now is sound  project management experience. But instead, we get one who spent ten years digging a money pit with Stuttgart 21."  As if to prove the point, Mehdorn, in his first press conference, emerged on a rant against German bureaucracy, stating that nowhere else in the world such a major airport would be closed to operation during night-time hours.

Kiel Canal: As if things hadn't been already bad enough, on March 6, the Kiel Canal, the world's most frequented man-made waterway, had to be closed when two locks broke down. In spite of several warnings of local officials (from CDU/ FDP and SPD / Greens alike) during the last years that urgent repairs of the more than 100 years-old locks were needed, the Federal government had in 2012 cut down canal maintenance funding from 50 m € to 11 m €. Construction of new locks, planned since a long time, has, in spite of Ramsauer symbolically attending the ground-breaking ceremony a few weeks before the 2012 Schleswig-Holstein state election, not come forward due to "technical problems in tender preparation". Critics, however, suspect that Ramsauer has been busy with channelling as much federal funds as possible into his home state of Bavaria, where state elections are due this autumn.

Ramsauer initially downplayed the issue, much to the discontent of the state governments of Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein, whose economy is heavily depending on the Canal (I would furthermore assume several Scandinavian governments being anything but happy about the development). In the meantime, he has paid a visit to the broken-down locks. While it is yet unclear when repairs shall be finished and the Canal can be re-opened, Ramsauer announced that construction of replacement locks would commence in 2015 and be finished by 2021, and some additional funding to cover expected cost increases has already been set aside.

Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link Largely beyond the radar of the national press, the next disaster is already looming on the horizon. In an inter-governmental accord, the German and Danish governments have agreed on the construction on a fixed road & rail link between Hamburg and Copenhagen across the Fehmarn belt. While Denmark shall bear all costs towards the German border, including tunnel construction under the Fehmarn belt, Germany is responsible for upgrading road and rail connections on its side of the border.  This includes especially extending an already existing motorway by some 30 km to the projected tunnel entrance, electrifying the existing single-rail connection until 2021, and upgrading it to dual-rail until 2028. Initial cost estimates for these connections ranged around 850 m Euros.
In the meantime, however, engineering studies have shown that the existing bridge over the Fehmarnsund is statically not suited for the projected increase in heavy traffic, and needs to be replaced or complemented by a second bridge (600 m Euros initial cost estimate). Moreover, the current budget does not allow for a complete railway reconstruction along the  motorway, but only for upgrading the existing line, which passes through main Baltic Sea holiday resorts. Local opposition is already strong, and likely to result in lengthy court proceedings and, possibly, substantial extra costs for noise protection as well as replacing current level railway crossings by bridges.
The current approach of the Federal Ministry of Transport appears to be shifting respective planning and budgeting onto the new federal medium-term transport sector investment plan for 2015-2030. However, this could mean serious planning and construction delays, which ultimately might lead to Germany breaking its obligation of finishing its part of the Fehmarnbelt fixed link by 2021, the envisaged tunnel opening date.  I am anything but sure that the Danish and Swedish Governments, and the EU Commission (which is contributing to project costs) will allow Ramsauer to continue with this strategy for long.

Essentially, this all means that current transport sector budgets are not worth the paper they are written on. Annual federal transport sector capital investment is budgeted at around 5 bn Euros. By my math, 2 bn extra for Stuttgart 21, 2-3 bn extra for the Berlin-Brandenburg Airport (only 30% federal share, but since Berlin is virtually bankrupt, the federal government will most likely have to pick up more), 700 m for Kiel Canal locks, probably at minimum an extra 1 bn for the Fehmarnbelt fixed link - that's more than a full annual CapEx budget!
Great performance for a "fiscally conservative" government. The Greens are eager to rub that message in. Not so the SPD, which is part of the mess (especially Berlin-Brandenburg Airport, but also Stuttgart 21).

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, unpopular public works of all kinds? Good for the greens, I guess. I would really love to see them above SPD.

[minionofmidas]

I'm late to this, but I just looked back over this thread and I'm surprised at the high level of support for gay equality among Linke voters. I thought a lot of their support was from rather socially conservative folks, but I guess not.

The existence of gay civil unions - called marriages in the vernacular and registered in just the same way as marriages (except that churchbound people have a second, church, wedding afterwards*) -  has become part of the furniture quite fast, and most unpolitical people are actually vaguely surprised to hear they're not equal in the benefits they bestow. In short, equality is the conservative option, resisting the inevitable is the reactionary option.
There's a lot of people, and possibly more among Left voters than anywhere else, who would admit to personal anti-gay prejudice while supporting equality.

*and remember, they're few and far between in the East

[Middle-aged Europe]

Cem Özdemir as chancellor would be awesome.

He wouldn't become Chancellor though, since he isn't the party's lead nominee for the Bundestag election.

Jürgen Trittin would become Chancellor, in all likelihood (either him or Katrin Göring-Eckardt, but Trittin is more likely).