2013 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Germany (and likely Hesse) to officially vote on Sept. 22:

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http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/wahltermin-bundestagswahl-findet-am-22-september-statt-a-880338.html

...

So, basically we now have:

15.09. - Bavaria
22.09. - Germany and Hesse (?)
29.09. - Austria (?)

I have already for some time been thinking about the "51st state"comment -but now you relally deserve it

You mean Austria as the 51st ?



Not really, since there are only 16 German states ...

And the 17th is already the "Balearic Islands".

So, we would be the 18th German state.

Or the 19th (after Switzerland) ?

[Franzl]

Keep the talk about Austria in your thread..  We've got serious stuff to discuss in this one.

Nicht ernst nehmen...

[Franzl]

Forsa, 30.01.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Black short of a majority (40-48).
Red-Green short of a majority (40-48).

[Franknburger]

GMS (CDU pollster), Federal elections, 20.01.2013, raw data (no projection)

CDU        42,9
SPD        26.3
Grüne     14.7
FDP          4.9
Linke        6.3
Pirates      2.5
Others      2.4

Non-voters / undecided 29.9

[Tender Branson]

New ARD poll:







Job Approval Ratings:



Do you think the German Military should get "drones" ?

[Tender Branson]

In Bavaria there will be a referendum on university tuition fees on Sept. 15, together with the state election:



Should be good for the leftwing mobilisation (even though I don't know how the Bavarians in general think about this issue). At least in Austria, about 70% of people want tuition fees.

[Franzl]

n-tv claimed that 2/3-3/4 of Bavarians oppose tuition fees.

If true, considering red-green is taking over Niedersachsen, Germany will once again be without general tuition fees anywhere!

[Tender Branson]

n-tv claimed that 2/3-3/4 of Bavarians oppose tuition fees.

If true, considering red-green is taking over Niedersachsen, Germany will once again be without general tuition fees anywhere!

Interesting.

This is based on what (poll) ? Or just wild guessing by n-tv ?

I find it funny that Germany moves away from tuition fees while we are introducing them with March in an adapted form.

[mubar]

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/umfrage-mehrheit-gegen-studiengebuehren-1.1569103

Infratest Dimap poll for BR, beginning of this January: 72% of Bavarians against tuition fees, only 25% for them.

I find the difference between German and Austrian public opinion regarding study fees very interesting. Any reasons for the high support in Austria?

[Franzl]

n-tv claimed that 2/3-3/4 of Bavarians oppose tuition fees.

If true, considering red-green is taking over Niedersachsen, Germany will once again be without general tuition fees anywhere!

Interesting.

This is based on what (poll) ? Or just wild guessing by n-tv ?

I find it funny that Germany moves away from tuition fees while we are introducing them with March in an adapted form.

It seems like practically every Western state had them for a short while, but they've proved quite unpopular.

Considering the margin, they might have cost McAllister his job.

[Tender Branson]

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/umfrage-mehrheit-gegen-studiengebuehren-1.1569103

Infratest Dimap poll for BR, beginning of this January: 72% of Bavarians against tuition fees, only 25% for them.

I find the difference between German and Austrian public opinion regarding study fees very interesting. Any reasons for the high support in Austria?

Hmm.

Maybe the same thing that we saw in the draft issue, just a bit different:

In the draft debate, the old people were like: "If I had to be drafted, the young ones should be drafted as well !"

When it comes to the tuition fees, the old people think: "If I couldn't go to university and had to do REAL WORK instead, the young people who go to the unis now SHOULD AT LEAST PAY for it !"

[Velasco]

Germany (and likely Hesse) to officially vote on Sept. 22:

                                                                       (...)

So, basically we now have:

15.09. - Bavaria
22.09. - Germany and Hesse (?)
29.09. - Austria (?)

I have already for some time been thinking about the "51st state"comment -but now you relally deserve it

You mean Austria as the 51st ?



Not really, since there are only 16 German states ...

And the 17th is already the "Balearic Islands".

So, we would be the 18th German state.

Or the 19th (after Switzerland) ?

Indeed, the Balearic are annexed de facto. Some islands down here will be added soon.

Looking at some polls above, I think it's a shame the lack of a competitive candidate inside the SPD. We're condemned to see a Great Coalition. Bad news for Europe (and for the South, of course)

[Tender Branson]

There's also a new Rheinland-Pfalz poll, which shows the new Governor Marie-Luise Dreyer from the SPÖ is now moving far ahead of CDU-leader Julia Klöckner:





No state election poll ("Sonntagsfrage") though.

[Franknburger]

In Bavaria there will be a referendum on university tuition fees on Sept. 15, together with the state election:

Should be good for the leftwing mobilisation (even though I don't know how the Bavarians in general think about this issue). At least in Austria, about 70% of people want tuition fees.

Interesting. I wonder what drove the CSU to de-couple State and Federal elections. Now they will have to cope in the state elections with an issue vote with high mobilisation potential, that they are bound to lose, while not getting Merkel coattails.

This could end up with a state-level CSU (and, more improtantly, FDP) defeat, which would send an important signal to the federal electorate just one week before the  federal election.

[Nhoj]

At this rate the FDP should put Guido back in charge.

[Zanas]

Which would instantly give him -12 on this grid...

[Franknburger]

At this rate the FDP should put Guido back in charge.

And note that their "new" hope, Brüderle, has taken serious hits from the sexism debate.

The problem with Guido is that his strategy to brand the FDP as "low tax / lean government" party failed, as they did not deliver on their promises. Reinstalling him would remind voters of that failure. Considering that German Minsters of Foreign Affairs typically get approval ratings far above 60%, Weseterwelle still scores pretty low.

[Franknburger]

Some more interesting takeaways from the infratest / ARD poll:

Which party shall lead the next government?
CDU      47 (-1)
SPD      45 (+6)

Time for government change?
Yes        60 (+1)
No         35 (+3)

Which of the following do you associate with black-yellow / red-green?
Growth                   53 / 30
Security                  51/ 31
The past                 47 / 30
Competence            47 / 34
Going forward         30 / 49
Justice                    30  49
Harmony                29 / 42

SPD-leaners only: Peer Steinbrück is a reason to vote
for SPD                 42
against SPD           45

Will the FDP leadership last until the federal election?
Yes                      46
No                       49

More or less Europe?
Strengthen common EU policies   65 (+5 against September 2012)
Rely on own strength                  31 (-9)

[Tender Branson]

Markus Söder, the Bavarian Finance Minister from the CSU, does a Rudy Giuliani:



Rudy Giuliani:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Markus Söder, the Bavarian Finance Minister from the CSU, does a Rudy Giuliani:

He looks a bit like the Joker from the 1960s Batman series, to be frank.

[Franzl]

Emnid, 03.02.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 4%

[RogueBeaver]

Holding steady. Grand it is since Merkel can't eke out too many more votes for the CDU/CSU alone and the FDP loan strategy might backfire.

[You kip if you want to...]

Oh Ed

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the problem?

[Franzl]

04.02.2013, Forsa, Berlin (state election)

CDU: 26%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 25%
Linke: 10%
Piraten: 7%

others: 7%

The governing SPD-CDU would retain its majority (51-42), although the CDU would lead it.