2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

Here are some results for the Göttingen region

(http: / /) wahlen.kds.de/2013ltw/index.html , I cannot include links.

SPD won the constituencies of Göttingen and Göttingen/Münden, Northeim, Einbeck, Osterode and Holzminden (where Minister of the Interior, Schürnemann (CDU), lost).
CDU won Duderstadt.

Which makes a FTPT net gain of 1 for the SPD in this region (Holzminden).

LOL - the Black Sheriff is gone! Seems my sister and my nieces voted right..

Checked Hannover-Land results (counting not yet finished):
3 CDU FPTP (Langenhagen, Garbsen, Springe)
4 too close too call (less than 500 votes difference): Laatzen (SPD lead), Lehrte, Neustadt, Barsinghausen  (all CDU lead).

Pre-election projection was 4 CDU - 3 SPD

[minionofmidas]

Home Minister Uwe Schünemann goes down.
And Gerhard Schröder's wife fails to win the seat she ran for, despite the SPD leading the list vote.

For those who can read German, here is the Lower Saxon overhang mechanism, as described by wahlrecht.de

Überhang- und Ausgleichsmandate
Gewinnt eine Partei in den Wahlkreisen mehr Mandate als ihr nach dem Verhältnisausgleich zustehen, so verbleiben diese Sitze der Partei. Die übrigen Parteien erhalten Ausgleichsmandate. Dazu wird die Zahl 135 um das Doppelte der Anzahl der Überhangmandate erhöht. Diese Mandatszahl dient dann als Grundlage einer erneuten Berechnung entsprechend des o. a. Verfahrens. Sind auch nach dieser zweiten Verteilung immer noch Überhangmandate vorhanden, so verbleiben sie der Partei ohne weiteren Ausgleich. Aufgrund dieser recht halbherzigen Lösung ist es zudem möglich, daß eine Partei gleichzeitig Überhang- und Ausgleichsmandate erhält.

That's frigging weird. Echoes of Schleswig-Holstein... not to mention Florida.

[jaichind]

Will there be an uproar if due to overhand seats bonus, CDU/FDP wins less votes than SPD/Greens but comes to power with a one seat majority?  Or does the population accept that as part of the system.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Actually, no one knows, as this never happened anywhere, before. But as there is some discussion as black-wellow did want to tailor the federal election law in their favour there is some uproar possible.

[Franknburger]

For those who can read German, here is the Lower Saxon overhang mechanism, as described by wahlrecht.de

That's frigging weird. Echoes of Schleswig-Holstein... not to mention Florida.

Yep - black-yellow seems to be great in doing unconstitutional election system reforms. After their last two reforms of Federal election law have been scrapped by the Constitutional Court, we still don't have a valid legal base for the federal elections this Spetember.

Will there be an uproar if due to overhand seats bonus, CDU/FDP wins less votes than SPD/Greens but comes to power with a one seat majority?  Or does the population accept that as part of the system.

We had a similar situation In Schleswig-Holstein in 2009, which went to constitutional court and resulted in early elections last autumn. However, the Lower Saxony compensation modus is less extreme, so it may actually get through undisputed.

[jaichind]

ARD

CDU/FDP     46.2
SPD/Green   46.0

ZDF

CDU/FDP     46.1
SPD/Green   46.3

Both seems to be released around the same time.

[Franknburger]

Wow: Grüne come in ahead of CDU in Oldenburg Mitte/Süd  (25.8 vs. 23.6), and get 25.1% in Lüneburg! Would not wonder if they came out first in Göttingen.

[Unimog]

What about black/green if black/yellow fails to prevent black/red?

I'd like to see this.

[minionofmidas]

Not with McAllister, not with the Lower Saxony Greens.

[Yeahsayyeah]

And - what really matters most - not a few months ahead of the Bundestag election.

[minionofmidas]

Wow: Grüne come in ahead of CDU in Oldenburg Mitte/Süd  (25.8 vs. 23.6), and get 25.1% in Lüneburg! Would not wonder if they came out first in Göttingen.

SPD 29.9, Greens 28.5. So close.

[minionofmidas]

I count 46 CDU, 31 SPD, 10 seats still out.

[jaichind]

FPTP seats I think SPD already won 32 out of the 87 seats available.  That means that CDU at most will have 55 seats in FPTP seats.  It seems that given current vote shares, CDU should get around 56 seats.  This means the chances of a overhang of seats for CSU is low.

[jaichind]

SPD up to 33 seats out of 87. 

[jaichind]

ARD

CDU/FDP       46.0
SPD/Greens   46.3

With CDU getting overhang seats window closing, it seems that it will either be a 2 seat lead for SPD/Greens or a tie.  Most likely a tie.  This is fun.

[minionofmidas]

It's apparently looking like almost certain that it'll be either a one-seat lead for red-green or a tie; as well as a tiny red-green vote lead.

[jaichind]

ARD

CDU/FDP       45.9
SPD/Greens   46.3

The SDP/Greens lead is growing.

[jaichind]

ZDF

CDU/FDP     46.1
SPD/Green   46.2

but does project SPD/Green seat lead of 69-68

[Franzl]

Recount!!!

[Diouf]

I don't understand how the result can become 69-68

If CDU gets one überhangmandate, shouldn't two Ausgleichmandate be given, so the total tally should be 138?

EDIT: Sorry, misread it. Thought it sad that Ausgleichmandate should be twice the Überhangmandate, but it really said that the number of seats should be highened by the number of ÜberhangmandateX2.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It looks more and more like SPD/Greens, rather than CDU/SPD.

In any case, CDU/FDP has become more or less impossible, it seems?

[minionofmidas]

I don't understand how the result can become 69-68

If CDU gets one überhangmandate, shouldn't two Ausgleichmandate be given, so the total tally should be 138?

No.

If they'd be using a logical process, the number would depend entirely on how things round - there'd be so many seats as are needed for the CDU to "deserve" the number of seats it actually got (the lowest such number, so marginally favoring the overhang-winning party already). But in Lower Saxony, the number of Ausgleichsmandate is identical to the number of Überhangmandate. And in rare cases (not relevant to the situation now), the CDU might even get some of them!

[DL]

What's the story behind the CDU leader in Lower Soxony having such a Scottish sounding name?

[minionofmidas]

What's the story behind the CDU leader in Lower Soxony having such a Scottish sounding name?

He has a British father.

And double citizenship.

[Franzl]

What's the story behind the CDU leader in Lower Soxony having such a Scottish sounding name?

He's a dual Scottish-German citizen