2013 Elections in Germany

[freefair]

Epic result for FDP if true (at 9.5 to 10%), yet dissapointing for CDU. Really expected a single party near-majority. SDGP Vs CFDU neck and neck as well. Nail-biter. I'll be supporting McAllister for Premier.

[Franzl]

LOL

[ZuWo]

Both ARD and ZDF are currently predicting a 1-seat majority for the black-yellow coalition but take this with a huge grain of salt ... This will be a nailbiter.

[Franzl]

Both ARD and ZDF are currently predicting a 1-seat majority for the black-yellow coalition but take this with a huge grain of salt ... This will be a nailbiter.

Yeah, German exit polls are very good....but I wouldn't bet the farm on a 1 seat majority in them.

[jaichind]

ZDF

FDP 9.6
Green 13.5
SPD 32.9
CDU 36.8

CDU/FDP    46.4
SDP/Green 46.4

[RogueBeaver]

Eesh, US 2000 style nailbiter.

[minionofmidas]

ZDF

FDP 9.6
Green 13.5
SPD 32.9
CDU 36.8

CDU/FDP    46.4
SDP/Green 46.4

ARD has CDU-FDP narrowly ahead in votes, but also at effective tie.

[jaichind]

This should be seen as disappointing to CDU.  If CDU were told ahead of time that Left would be below 5% and FDP will be above 5%, then CDU would have expected a small but significant majority.  Instead it is neck to neck.

[Franzl]

Eesh, US 2000 style nailbiter.

Only I doubt this election will be going to court...

[Tender Branson]

Eesh, US 2000 style nailbiter.

Only I doubt this election will be going to court...

And I doubt that Lower Saxony is as bad as Florida in counting votes.

[jaichind]

Yeah.  The worst actually is New York State where I live.  10 weeks after the nov 2012 elections, they finally have the results in for one of the New York State Senate races.  Florida is bad, New York is worse.

And I doubt that Lower Saxony is as bad as Florida in counting votes.

[minionofmidas]

lmao, they actually polled FDP supporters in the exit poll. These percentages agreed with the following propositions...

91% I could have just as well voted CDU
87% I cared mostly about reelecting McAllister
68% My vote is a classic "borrowed vote"
45% I decided to vote FDP some time ago
33% the FDP is the party I feel closest to
20% I am wholly convinced of the party I voted for

They actually said they've never seen numbers quite as crass.

[jaichind]

Merkel party leads state vote; majority unclear: exit polls
Jan. 20 (AFP) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party was in the lead Sunday after the first state poll in a general election year, exit polls indicated, but it was unclear whether its coalition would hang on to power.
Exit poll results from Lower Saxony broadcast on public television showed Merkel's Christian Democrats leading with around 37 percent and their current coalition partners, the Free Democrats, with about 10 percent. The Social Democrats had about 33 percent and their favoured allies the Greens 14 percent.
The knife-edge race was due to develop throughout the night as results trickle in, determining which coalition will come out on top eight months before a national election that will decide whether Merkel wins a third term.
The Christian Democrats (CDU) were down from their 42.5 percent score at the last election in 2008 but appeared to benefit from the popularity of state premier David McAllister, a half-Scot seen as a potential Merkel successor.
The big winners of the night, however, were the pro- business Free Democrats (FDP), who looked to tally their best result in Lower Saxony in post-war history.
Polls had indicated they risked slipping below the five- percent hurdle required for seats in the state parliament but they seemed to get a lift from conservative voters splitting their ballots under Germany's two-vote system in a bid to rescue the coalition.
If the FDP failed to win representation, its embattled leader Philipp Roesler, who is also Merkel's vice chancellor, was seen as likely to step down -- possibly as soon as Sunday night.
The outcome seemed to give him a reprieve, if only brief. Around 6.2 million people were called to the polls in Lower Saxony, home to European auto giant Volkswagen and run by the same centre-right alliance with which Merkel governs in Berlin.
If the state coalition holds on to power, analysts say it will give Merkel, who already enjoys a robust lead in national polls and ranks as Germany's most popular politician, a strong boost heading into the September election.
But if the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens manage to eke out a victory -- a distinct possibility based on the exit polls -- pundits say it could help shore up the battered campaign of Merkel's gaffe-prone challenger Peer Steinbrueck.
Steinbrueck, a former finance minister from Merkel's 2005- 09 "grand coalition" government, was anointed by the SPD as its chancellor candidate last autumn.
But he has run into trouble in recent months with revelations that he made around 1.25 million euros ($1.66 million) over the last three years in speaking fees, and with comments that Merkel owed much of her popularity to her gender. dlc/gd

 

[minionofmidas]

Steinbrück is politically dead if this holds.

[RogueBeaver]

Steinbrück is politically dead if this holds.

He already is.

[Franzl]

Steinbrück is politically dead if this holds.

Dead in the sense that he has as much chance of becoming chancellor as Steinmeier 4 years ago....or dead in the sense that you think he'll be replaced as Kanzlerkandidat?

[jaichind]

Latest ZDF

CDU/FDP      46.5%
SDP/Greens  46.3%

The party that seems to be gaining as the count goes on seems to be FDP

[Franzl]

CDU does seem to have a tendency to gain 1% or so between the first exit poll and the final results.

[minionofmidas]

Steinbrück is politically dead if this holds.

Dead in the sense that he has as much chance of becoming chancellor as Steinmeier 4 years ago....or dead in the sense that you think he'll be replaced as Kanzlerkandidat?

1 plus the possibility of 2.

[Franzl]

Steinbrück is politically dead if this holds.

Dead in the sense that he has as much chance of becoming chancellor as Steinmeier 4 years ago....or dead in the sense that you think he'll be replaced as Kanzlerkandidat?

1 plus the possibility of 2.

2 happening would be really fun to watch.

[Franknburger]

New ZDF poll (19:00)

CDU 36.4
SPD 32.7
Grüne 13.6
FDP 9.7

Red-green 46.3, black-yellow 46.1

Seat projection 75-75 (including FPTP & compensation)!

This will become a long evenng !

[jaichind]

Latest ZDF

CDU/FDP      46.1%
SDP/Greens  46.3%

[Hifly]

Wann kann wir die ersten Wahlkreisergebnisse sehen?

[Franzl]

Wann kann wir die ersten Wahlkreisergebnisse sehen?

Sobald sie ausgezählt sind.

[Hifly]

Wann kann wir die ersten Wahlkreisergebnisse sehen?

Sobald sie ausgezählt sind.

stimmt

aber hast du keine idee?