2013 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

Having read up on the FDP, and rather liked it, what exactly would Bruederle do as chairman of the party? Would polling numbers rise with a new leader (permanently, with a bump?) or are they likely to remain basically where they are now regardless of who leads the FDP? It would certainly be quite remarkable if they went from their best-ever performance in 2009 to their worst-ever performance (though Kadima is set to do just that, on the other hand...)

I think the FDP will likely get 5-6% in September. I don't think the leader is particularly relevant, the FDP brand is just toxic at the moment.

[Vosem]

Having read up on the FDP, and rather liked it, what exactly would Bruederle do as chairman of the party? Would polling numbers rise with a new leader (permanently, with a bump?) or are they likely to remain basically where they are now regardless of who leads the FDP? It would certainly be quite remarkable if they went from their best-ever performance in 2009 to their worst-ever performance (though Kadima is set to do just that, on the other hand...)

I think the FDP will likely get 5-6% in September. I don't think the leader is particularly relevant, the FDP brand is just toxic at the moment.

Could you explain why? I was under the impression the Merkel government (certainly Merkel herself) is quite popular. Of course I don't know much about German politics.

[Franzl]

Having read up on the FDP, and rather liked it, what exactly would Bruederle do as chairman of the party? Would polling numbers rise with a new leader (permanently, with a bump?) or are they likely to remain basically where they are now regardless of who leads the FDP? It would certainly be quite remarkable if they went from their best-ever performance in 2009 to their worst-ever performance (though Kadima is set to do just that, on the other hand...)

I think the FDP will likely get 5-6% in September. I don't think the leader is particularly relevant, the FDP brand is just toxic at the moment.

Could you explain why? I was under the impression the Merkel government (certainly Merkel herself) is quite popular. Of course I don't know much about German politics.

Merkel is personally popular, but that's it. The government is pretty strongly disliked.

The FDP has made a fool of themselves for the last 4 years and is perceived to be a corrupt and incompetent group entirely driven by special interests. (See hotel tax affair)

Literally their only well known policy is pushing for unrealistic, impossible tax cuts, and even that has bewn unsuccesful for them.

[Vosem]

Having read up on the FDP, and rather liked it, what exactly would Bruederle do as chairman of the party? Would polling numbers rise with a new leader (permanently, with a bump?) or are they likely to remain basically where they are now regardless of who leads the FDP? It would certainly be quite remarkable if they went from their best-ever performance in 2009 to their worst-ever performance (though Kadima is set to do just that, on the other hand...)

I think the FDP will likely get 5-6% in September. I don't think the leader is particularly relevant, the FDP brand is just toxic at the moment.

Could you explain why? I was under the impression the Merkel government (certainly Merkel herself) is quite popular. Of course I don't know much about German politics.

Merkel is personally popular, but that's it. The government is pretty strongly disliked.

I see.

The FDP has made a fool of themselves for the last 4 years and is perceived to be a corrupt and incompetent group entirely driven by special interests. (See hotel tax affair)

Neither Wikipedia nor Google have helped -- could you provide a link?

Literally their only well known policy is pushing for unrealistic, impossible tax cuts, and even that has bewn unsuccesful for them.

Maybe I'm just American, but I feel like more than 4% of the population would support that agenda...

[Franzl]

http://m.thelocal.de/politics/20100116-24621.html

This was kind of the start of their crash.

[ERvND]

Literally their only well known policy is pushing for unrealistic, impossible tax cuts, and even that has bewn unsuccesful for them.

Maybe I'm just American, but I feel like more than 4% of the population would support that agenda...

What makes the FDP unpopular is not so much their tax cut agenda but the fact that they were not able to push it trough (not even the slightest bit of it), despite being part of the government for almost four years now.

[Vosem]

http://m.thelocal.de/politics/20100116-24621.html

This was kind of the start of their crash.

Thanks for the link -- that's quite dissuasive for possible FDP voters who aren't very wealthy...

Literally their only well known policy is pushing for unrealistic, impossible tax cuts, and even that has bewn unsuccesful for them.

Maybe I'm just American, but I feel like more than 4% of the population would support that agenda...

What makes the FDP unpopular is not so much their tax cut agenda but the fact that they were not able to push it trough (not even the slightest bit of it), despite being part of the government for almost four years now.

Rather like the Lib-Dems? I see how it is.

[Franknburger]

A great analysis, Franknburger. Two things aside and in addition to it:

3.) Another key constituency of the state's CDU is "Heimatvertriebene" (post WW II displaced persons from former German territories in the East). In 1950, they accounted for 27% of the State's total population, concentrated in the central eastern part of the State (roughly everything east of the middle Weser - Hameln to Verden), and, to a lesser extent, along the Elbe and upper Weser towards Wilhelmshaven and Oldenburg. Their integration into the CDU did not occur immediately, but via several other parties - BHE, DP, and, most importantly, the NPD in the late 1960s / early 1970s.  Thus, you still find a (demographically decreasing) number of CDU politicians in Eastern Lower Saxony with late 1960s/ early 1970s NPD past, the most prominent of which is the current major of Brunswick (CDU, ruling with FDP support).  This, in turn, is not pushing enthusiasm for any kind of cooperation with the CDU in the left-leaning part of the electorate in central-eastern Lower Saxony.

First: It has never been thoroughly proven that the German refugees voted overwhelmingly for right-wing parties. There are also different instances; in rural southern Germany, for example, it were refugees who built up the local Social Democratic Party chapters after the war.

I aggree that there is no statistical proof how refugees tended to vote - but it is nevertheless clear which party collected most of their functionnaires, which was the CDU / CSU.

I also don't think that one can compare Southern Germany with Lower Saxony in this respect:
For once, the integration challenges (and resulting tensions) were much larger. In Eastern Lower Saxony, as in Schleswig-Holstein, you had roughly one refugee coming on every local-born - a ratio that, with the possible exception of the Bavarian-Czech border districts, was far higher than anywhere else in West Germany.
Secondly, by around 1970 the Lower Saxon SPD had become the party of the protestant (urban & rural)  establishment, as previous such parties, including DNVP and NSDAP, had been throughly discredited by / after WW II. [The heavily industrialised part of Hannover where I grew up had a sizeable portion of pre WW I polish immigrants - roughly half of my primary school mates had Polish last names. It was out of any question that any 'German' interested in politics would join the SPD, while any 'Pole' would join the CDU. And the 'Germans', of course, would rather be suburban middle-class, while the 'Poles' would be blue-collar.] As such, refugees, to the extent they were not already (as catholic Silesians) attracted by the CDU, needed an anti-establishment platform, which was first offered by the BHE, then the NPD, and ultimately, especially after Willy Brandt's formal cession of eastern territories to Poland and the USSR in 1970, by the CDU.

It is perfectly imaginable and understandable for me that things went the other way round in rural Southern Germany, and refugees there flocked to the SPD in opposition to the prevailing CDU/CSU establishment (actually a pretty fascinating detail of the southern German political landscape that I had not been aware of before).

Second: By now, the political and electoral influence of the organized refugees ("Heimatvertriebene") is marginal at best. They never really managed to pass their identity and ideas to the following generations, so when the last "real" refugees die, it will be basically over for them. As you said, however, their extremist right-wing image is still very much alive. Especially for the Greens and The Left, the "Heimatvertriebene" are a popular boogeyman, and every CDU politician mentioning the matter will immediately be accused of nazi connections. This doesn't correspond to the real political impact of the last refugees, though.

True! A lot of my friends, and my wife, are 'second-generation' "Heimatvertriebene" (at least from one parental side), without self-identifying so. As to the "real" refugees, those who have survived displacement and hunger tend to be quite durable (at least I hope so for my mother-in-law), so they may still be around for a while as loyal CDU voters (in Northern Germany).

However, I think it is equally important to recognise and understand the political socialisation of left-leaning people of my generation (babyboomers), which often was started by older relatives making statements like "The Nazis were not worse than the Russians", followed by swearing on the treacherous SPD giving up German lands in the East. So, the refugee functionnaire might be the bogeyman, but the real source of anger was the own grandfather or uncle  - and that is what is making the "Heimatvertriebenen" issue so emotional.
The real tragic is that the refugees rarely shared their experience. My mother-in-law, e.g., only recently told me and my wife how she, at the age of seven, saw her mother being raped by a Russian soldier. Its understandable - this is not the kind of stories you really want to tell at the coffee table. But since most of such stories have probably never been told, the "real" refugees came, and are still coming, across as backward-oriented, revanchist, nazi-leaning phrase-mongers.

[Franknburger]

http://m.thelocal.de/politics/20100116-24621.html

This was kind of the start of their crash.

And they pretty much sealed the deal when, after running their election campaign on the "More net from gross" (income) slogan, they agreed to raising public system health insurance premiums by 0,5%, without coming up with any meaningful cost reduction proposal.  Note that the Ministry of Health is run by the FDP.
SPD and Greens have for long been demanding to liberalise the pharmacy sector, allowing the entrance of internet pharmacies and larger pharmacy chains, in order to cut down on the exessively high costs of pharmaceutical distribution, but self-employed pharmacists are known to be one of the most loyal FDP voters groups ..

Oh yes, and then there were the Lower Saxony and Schleswig Holstein FDP divisions running  "shut down dangerous nuclear reactors" campaigns during the respective state elections, in reaction to several major failures of the Krümmel reactor which is located some 30 km south-east of Hamburg. And what was the first action of the FDP-run Ministry of Economy? Revoking the old red-green compromise on gradually phasing out nuclear energy. After Merkel's post-Fukushima turnaround, the Krümmel reactor was the first to be immediately shut down, but that is being credited to Merkel, not to the FDP.

Need more? Just ask, there is plenty ..

[ingemann]

Literally their only well known policy is pushing for unrealistic, impossible tax cuts, and even that has bewn unsuccesful for them.

Maybe I'm just American, but I feel like more than 4% of the population would support that agenda...

Just because you have a point in you platform a lot of people could agree with doesn´t translate into voters. A lot of Americans would agree with part of the Libertarian, Green and Constitutional Parties platforms, but they won´t vote for them. If a party come across as a waste of your vote, dishonest, imcompetent or corrupt a lot of their core voting segment wiill not vote for them.

[DC Al Fine]

http://m.thelocal.de/politics/20100116-24621.html

This was kind of the start of their crash.

And they pretty much sealed the deal when, after running their election campaign on the "More net from gross" (income) slogan, they agreed to raising public system health insurance premiums by 0,5%, without coming up with any meaningful cost reduction proposal.  Note that the Ministry of Health is run by the FDP.
SPD and Greens have for long been demanding to liberalise the pharmacy sector, allowing the entrance of internet pharmacies and larger pharmacy chains, in order to cut down on the exessively high costs of pharmaceutical distribution, but self-employed pharmacists are known to be one of the most loyal FDP voters groups ..

Oh yes, and then there were the Lower Saxony and Schleswig Holstein FDP divisions running  "shut down dangerous nuclear reactors" campaigns during the respective state elections, in reaction to several major failures of the Krümmel reactor which is located some 30 km south-east of Hamburg. And what was the first action of the FDP-run Ministry of Economy? Revoking the old red-green compromise on gradually phasing out nuclear energy. After Merkel's post-Fukushima turnaround, the Krümmel reactor was the first to be immediately shut down, but that is being credited to Merkel, not to the FDP.

Need more? Just ask, there is plenty ..

You need to post more

[Famous Mortimer]

If the FDP want to increase their support, they need to re-define what they stand for. It seems like right now they're trying to be vague as possible and let voters project what they want. That might work with the Pirates or Beppe Grillo, who are seeking a young, angry, protest voters but not with a bunch of pro-business technocrats.

[ERvND]

It is perfectly imaginable and understandable for me that things went the other way round in rural Southern Germany, and refugees there flocked to the SPD in opposition to the prevailing CDU/CSU establishment (actually a pretty fascinating detail of the southern German political landscape that I had not been aware of before).

This parallel, yet opposite, development is indeed fascinating. One has to see, of course, that there were a lot of conservative/right-leaning refugees in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, as well. The close connections between the "Sudetendeutsche Landsmannschaft" and the CSU, for example, are notorious. It holds true, however, that many refugees felt attracted by a political party that was (and still is) perceived as an anti-establishment, "outsider" force in the South. At least up until the 1970s, you can savely assume that - while not every refugee was a Social Democrat - almost every Social Democrat in rural Southern Germany was a refugee. By the way: There is no "indigenous" Social Democracy in said region to this day. As far as my personal observations reach (Upper Bavaria south of Munich), around 80% of SPD members there are no native-born Bavarians, but "Zugereiste", especially from Franconia and Northern Germany. To some degree, they have replaced the refugees as social outsiders.

However, I think it is equally important to recognise and understand the political socialisation of left-leaning people of my generation (babyboomers), which often was started by older relatives making statements like "The Nazis were not worse than the Russians", followed by swearing on the treacherous SPD giving up German lands in the East. So, the refugee functionnaire might be the bogeyman, but the real source of anger was the own grandfather or uncle  - and that is what is making the "Heimatvertriebenen" issue so emotional.
The real tragic is that the refugees rarely shared their experience. My mother-in-law, e.g., only recently told me and my wife how she, at the age of seven, saw her mother being raped by a Russian soldier. Its understandable - this is not the kind of stories you really want to tell at the coffee table. But since most of such stories have probably never been told, the "real" refugees came, and are still coming, across as backward-oriented, revanchist, nazi-leaning phrase-mongers.

What you say here is very true and very important. Actually, I can understand both sides (at least I hope so): The refugees' bitterness against Russians, Poles and Czechs, but also the following generation's outrage against the views of their refugee mothers and fathers. While this is completely comprehensible, I find it still annoying that it doesn't seem to be possible to discuss these matters in a neutral way, without emotional involvement and outbursts of sentiment. I mean, the events happened 70 years ago. This shows, however, that the memories seem to be too fresh still, and that the expulsion affected the German society in a more profound way than we like to admit.  

[Middle-aged Europe]

If the FDP want to increase their support, they need to re-define what they stand for. It seems like right now they're trying to be vague as possible and let voters project what they want. That might work with the Pirates or Beppe Grillo, who are seeking a young, angry, protest voters but not with a bunch of pro-business technocrats.

Part of the problem is that FDP has become increasingly redundant.

They were big on civil liberties once, but the issue has been largely taken over by the Greens (and the Pirates... and the Left to some extent). And business interests can be represented by the CDU just as easily, only without the blatant whoring.

What's left is the premise that taxes are inherently evil.

IMO they started to lose it when they voted against legalizing civil unions for gays and lesbians in 2001. Or maybe when they approved of wire-tapping back in 1995. That's when they became just a more secular version of the CDU.

[palandio]

At least up until the 1970s, you can savely assume that - while not every refugee was a Social Democrat - almost every Social Democrat in rural Southern Germany was a refugee. By the way: There is no "indigenous" Social Democracy in said region to this day. As far as my personal observations reach (Upper Bavaria south of Munich), around 80% of SPD members there are no native-born Bavarians, but "Zugereiste", especially from Franconia and Northern Germany. To some degree, they have replaced the refugees as social outsiders.

It's true that in most places in rural Upper Bavaria the SPD is a somehow "foreign" (and non-catholic) party, at least most of its membership. On the other hand there have always been some "indigenous" SPD voters, maybe in the past more than today.

The early-industrialized communes (Kolbermoor, Hausham, Penzberg, Peissenberg,...) have/had some kind of Social Democratic tradition, reaching back about 100 years, i.e. before the post-WW2 expulsions. Although I have to admit that these have also been places with a somehow diverse population (almost "social outsiders").

Other interesting comunes in our region are Geretsried, Traunsreut, Waldkraiburg and Neugablonz, new towns founded after WW2, with a very high refugee population. I would have to look up their historical voting behavior, but they were certainly among the strongholds of parties like the WAV, GB/BHE and in the 60s/70s the NPD. Today they have low turnout (similar to the Hausham type of communes) and relatively high CSU results (at least compared to other relatively big communes in the same area). The reasons for this could be the immigration of (mostly conservative) Eastern European ethnic Germans who were able cheap housing in the blocks.

My mother's family is partially refugee (though not moving to a "refugee town") and the parental and grandparental generations were very conversative or revisionist. What Franknburger told about his mother-in-law's family resembles very much what my mother told me she had heard: It has always been a very important theme at home, though very rarely talked about (openly). My great-grandmother hated the Russians and Poles very much until the end of her long life because the expulsion and the rape of her then 14-year-old daughter (though this was nothing she talked about openly, of course). She was a fervent CSU supporter because it represented the Western style economic miracle and social conservatism. She also admired Helmut Kohl, at least until 1990 when he conceeded the Eastern territories to Poland.

What is interesting though is that often the baby-boomer generation children of right-leaning refugees became more left-wing and the children of conservative "indigenous" people not so often...

[minionofmidas]

If the FDP want to increase their support, they need to re-define what they stand for. It seems like right now they're trying to be vague as possible and let voters project what they want. That might work with the Pirates or Beppe Grillo, who are seeking a young, angry, protest voters but not with a bunch of pro-business technocrats.

Part of the problem is that FDP has become increasingly redundant.

They were big on civil liberties once, but

throughout the Kohl years it was purely lip service. (Or I guess right in 82-4 they prevented a rollback of 70s reforms... but after that...) And up to the early 70s, the civil liberties-interested people were but a welldefined wing, and usually a minority one, within a party they shared with people who were, for want of a better word, somewhat reformed old nazis. Those people, insofar as they didn't just die or retire, defected to the CDU over the Ostverträge, of course.

[solarstorm]

http://m.thelocal.de/politics/20100116-24621.html

This was kind of the start of their crash.

Noooooo.

That was the start of their crash.

[Franzl]

Emnid, 06.01.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD 27%
Grüne 14%
Linke 8%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%
sonstige 3%

Red-Green with no majority (41-49).

[Franknburger]

FORSA, 09.01.2013, Federal Elections:

CDU/CSU: 42% (+1)
SPD: 25% (-2)
Grüne: 15% (+2)
Linke: 9% (+1)

FDP: 2% (-2)
Piraten: 3% (0)
Sonstige: 4% (0)

FDP down to only 2%, following the leadership discussion during their recent party conference!
SPD decrease continues. [Today's "Joke of the day" in my local newspaper: "What is the measurement unit for the average interval between two gaffes?" "One Steinbrück"]

Chancellorship preference:
Merkel           58% (+7)
Steinbrück     22% (-4)

[Antonio the Sixth]

[Today's "Joke of the day" in my local newspaper: "What is the measurement unit for the average interval between two gaffes?" "One Steinbrück"]

And the decimal is one Romney.

[MaxQue]

FORSA, 09.01.2013, Federal Elections:

CDU/CSU: 42% (+1)
SPD: 25% (-2)
Grüne: 15% (+2)
Linke: 9% (+1)

FDP: 2% (-2)
Piraten: 3% (0)
Sonstige: 4% (0)

FDP down to only 2%, following the leadership discussion during their recent party conference!
SPD decrease continues. [Today's "Joke of the day" in my local newspaper: "What is the measurement unit for the average interval between two gaffes?" "One Steinbrück"]

Chancellorship preference:
Merkel           58% (+7)
Steinbrück     22% (-4)

I didn't through than FDP could go lower than where they were.

[ObserverIE]

FORSA, 09.01.2013, Federal Elections:

CDU/CSU: 42% (+1)
SPD: 25% (-2)
Grüne: 15% (+2)
Linke: 9% (+1)

FDP: 2% (-2)
Piraten: 3% (0)
Sonstige: 4% (0)

FDP down to only 2%, following the leadership discussion during their recent party conference!
SPD decrease continues. [Today's "Joke of the day" in my local newspaper: "What is the measurement unit for the average interval between two gaffes?" "One Steinbrück"]

Chancellorship preference:
Merkel           58% (+7)
Steinbrück     22% (-4)

I didn't through than FDP could go lower than where they were.

"Fast Drei Prozent" quip comes out of retirement.

[Franknburger]

New Bavaria state election poll (09.01.2013): Absolute CSU majority possible



FW=Freie Wähler (Association of local / community level independent lists). 10.2% in last Bavarian election, but have remained marginal in other state elections (1-3 %). Have vowed for a coaltion with SPD and Greens to oust the current Bavarian CSU/FDP government.

Sonstige: Piraten 3%, Linke 2%

[Franzl]

It's really time for the CSU to experience the opposition bench.

Won't happen, but Ude would be a good Ministerpräsident.

[DC Al Fine]

Where are Freie Wahler on the left-right spectrum?