2013 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

You beat me on the FORSA poll! Nevertheless, one more interesting detail:  According to FORSA, many SPD leaners, frustrated and irritated by the debate on Steinbrück, "duck away and don't dare to commit to their party".

But i still have one:

EMNID, Bavaria State elections (for CSU!), 15.01.13:

CSU      48 ()
SPD      20 (-1)
Grüne   12 (+2)
FW         8 ()

FDP       3 (-1)
Linke     3 (+1)
Piraten   3 (-1)
Others   3 ()

Changes relate to last EMNID poll (14.10.2012)  

And you just barely beat me on the Bavarian one. Easy CSU majority remains easy, with 48-40...

[Franknburger]

If you had tried to combine FORSA and EMNID Bavaria in one post, I would have beaten you on both ..

[Franknburger]

It is surprising that the Greens are not profiting more from the SPD's weakness (o.k., in Bavaria they are, but not in the Federal election polls). Seems like everybody is waiting whether they will stand to their red-green commitment once the Lower Saxony election is through ..

[minionofmidas]

One wonders how the narrative will change after sunday, indeed. If tigerduck is not reelected, that is - that would not create a new narrative.

[Franzl]

So is CDU-FDP (or CDU alone? lol) practically destined for re-election if black-yellow is re-elected in Niedersachsen? I'm starting to get that impression.

[Franknburger]

So is CDU-FDP (or CDU alone? lol) practically destined for re-election if black-yellow is re-elected in Niedersachsen? I'm starting to get that impression.

Might get even worse (or more interesting, depending on your perspective) in Lower Saxony: FDP in with CDU loan votes, CDU / FPD and SPD / Greens virtually tied, and Linke in due to frustrated SPD leaners.

Resulting government options:
a.) Grand coalition (led by CDU)
b.) Black - green
c.) Traffic-light (note that the Lower Saxony FDP leader and Minister of Environment, Stefan Birkner, is the brother-in-law of Schleswig-Holstein's Green party leader and Minister of Environment, Robert Habeck)
d.) Red-green minority government tolerated by Linke.

Prepare for at least three weeks of non-stop drama.

Bonus questions: Provided FDP comes in with CDU loan votes, the CDU may only get to 36-37%. Still ahead of SPD, but more than 5% loss agianst 2008. Will McAllister survive or step down?

If CDU comes in at 36%, they would be entitled to 49 (out of 135)  seats, but they won 68 FPTP mandates in 2008. So, if the CDU loses less than 20 FPTP mandates to SPD, any senior government member that fails to conquer her/his district is out of the new Landtag. McAllister  runs in a reasonably safe CDU district, but not so his "crown princes" (Schünemann in Holzminden- lean CDU, Althusmann in Lüneburg - lean SPD, Ökzan in Hannover-Mitte - safe SPD).

FPTP projection map for Lower Saxony (54 CDU, 33 SPD): http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/img/poll/ns_wp_130112.html
P.S.1: I personally do not dare to make any projection for the national level until we know about the conposition of the next Lower Saxony government.

P.S.2: One thing is sure - unless CDU/ FDP cruise to victory in Lower Saxony, after Sunday, Steinbrück's gaffes will disappear from the headlines for some weeks ...

[You kip if you want to...]

So, Steinbruck is basically a joke candidate?

[Franknburger]

So, Steinbruck is basically a joke candidate?

He made himself one.

[RogueBeaver]

Hence the thread joke of gaffe intervals being "Steinbrucks" with "Romneys" as decimals.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, Steinbruck is basically a joke candidate?

The irony is that Steinbrück wasn't a joke candidate before he actually became a candidate.

Prior to his nomination he was widely considered to be f***king awesome, in a "omg, Merkel is really screwed now!" kind of way.

[ERvND]

To be perfectly fair, however, we'll have to admit that it was not Steinbrück's fault. Like, he had a real chance, messed it up, and in consequence, Merkel will win again. Instead, it was the other way round: The media and the general public desired a Merkel victory right from the beginning. Therefore, they needed (to make up) reasons why Steinbrück couldn't win.

That's why his recent "scandals" were blown up in a ridicolous way. For example, the fact that he is rich and got fees for his speeches could (and should) have been a sidenote. Instead, the media orchestrated a month-long campaign, even though he'd done nothing illegal.

Or, take the last "scandal" for another example: When he said that the chancellor's salary is too low, it was interpreted as a sign of greed. Had he uttered the exact opposite ("The chancellor's salary is too high."), I bet the headline would have been: "Envious Steinbrück is jealous of poor Merkel's salary!"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's why his recent "scandals" were blown up in a ridicolous way. For example, the fact that he is rich and got fees for his speeches could (and should) have been a sidenote. Instead, the media orchestrated a month-long campaign, even though he'd done nothing illegal.

Yes, this is normally the way with so-called 'gaffe-prone' politicians. It isn't as though they don't do the things they're pulled up for, it's that when this happens there's usually an agenda at work.

[Franknburger]

That's why his recent "scandals" were blown up in a ridicolous way. For example, the fact that he is rich and got fees for his speeches could (and should) have been a sidenote. Instead, the media orchestrated a month-long campaign, even though he'd done nothing illegal.

Yes, this is normally the way with so-called 'gaffe-prone' politicians. It isn't as though they don't do the things they're pulled up for, it's that when this happens there's usually an agenda at work.

Steinbrück should have known about Merkel's women network, which includes Friede Springer (Springer-Verlag - BILD, PRO 7, SAT 1), Sabine Christiansen (former ARD talk show host), Liz Mohn (Bertelsmann Verlag - RTL), Berlin event queen Isa von Hardenberg, etc. He also should have known how Merkel has dealt with rivals inside her party.

The "speech honoraria" issue was silly, and reasonably quickly dismissed. But it should have served as a warning on things to come. And what does Steinbrück? Interview after interview, just before Christmas, when domestic policy news are scarce, and the press is eager to have something to write about. Obviously, he hoped to be able to set the policy agenda. But his interviews came totally unprepared, i.e.  without launching issues in advance via 'friendly' media, and without ensuring adequate orchestration, e.g from civil society groups. That was stone-age PR!

Moreover, he did not realise that there are times when it is better to shut your mouth, and not to answer certain questions (e.g. chancellor's salary). To cite my local paper again "Fast thinker without adequate brain-to-mouth filter. High time for campaign reboot in protected mode".

Bottom line: Naive, unprepared, uncontrolled. No chancellor material.

[RedPrometheus]

A new poll from GMS for Lower Saxony:

CDU: 41%
SPD: 33%
Greens: 13%
FDP: 5%
Left: 3%
Pirates: 3%
Others:2%

CDU-FDP 46% vs SPD-Greens 46%!

It stays exciting!

[Franzl]

I'd say a greater than 50-50 chance black-yellow holds on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not pretending that he doesn't have a foot-in-mouth problem or even really defending him as such, just agreeing with the obvious truth that this sort of thing is only ever an issue when the media have decided to make it an issue. Of course you can soon get to the point where things that are not 'gaffes' are deemed to be them: Michael Foot's donkey jacket that wasn't, etc.

[Franknburger]

I'm not pretending that he doesn't have a foot-in-mouth problem or even really defending him as such, just agreeing with the obvious truth that this sort of thing is only ever an issue when the media have decided to make it an issue. Of course you can soon get to the point where things that are not 'gaffes' are deemed to be them: Michael Foot's donkey jacket that wasn't, etc.

Yep, of course, the gaffe thing was orchestrated.

The point I was trying to make is that Merkel's excellent media relation through her women's network is widely known. So Steinbrück should have prepared himself, acted carefully, and built counter-alliances before exposing himself. He didn't - and that tells about his political talent (and team-playing abilities).

[ZuWo]

The trend looks favorable for the black-yellow coalition in Lower Saxony. I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to get a narrow majority again. In fact, I think this is the most likely outcome at this point.

[Franknburger]

New Infratest dimap polls

Federal (18.01.2013), for ARD:

CDU        42 (+1)
SPD         26 (-2)
Grüne      13 (-1)
Linke         7 (+1)

FDP          4 ()
Piraten      4 (+1)
Others      4 ()

Rheinland-Pfalz, State (17.01.2013), for SWR:

CDU       43 (+3)
SPD        33 (-3)
Grüne     13 (+1)

FDP         2 (-1)
Linke       3  (+1)
Piraten    3 ()
others     3 (-1)

On Janzary 16,2013, Kurt Beck has stepped down as state PM (he is turning 65 this February) and been replaced by Malu Dreyer (SPD).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malu_Dreyer

[ERvND]

Any predictions for the Niedersachsen state elections? Here's mine:

CDU: 41%
Their potential is even higher, but they'll lose a bunch of tactical voters to the FDP.

SPD: 27%
The SPD share will collapse, perhaps to even lower levels than 27%. Polls generally tend to overestimate SPD support; moreover, the media climate for them is toxic right now. In the end, a great number of SPD voters will stay at home.

Greens: 15%
They will benefit from disgruntled SPD voters, but not enough to make up for the SPD's losses.

FDP: 8%
The "big surprise" of the evening, but not for me. The hardcore FDP supporters alone would have sufficed to put them over the 5% threshold. Now, they'll get a big number of additional votes from tactical CDU-voters.

The Left: 4%
Will profit a bit from SPD supporters who don't like Steinbrück, but not enough to make it to 5%.

Others: 5%
Pirates won't play a role in this one.

Conclusion:
Easy win for black-yellow, already foreshadowing the Bundestag results in September. Things could only get interesting if the Left somehow managed to reach over 5%. But even in this case, CDU-FDP should have a stable majority.

[Franknburger]

Any predictions for the Niedersachsen state elections? Here's mine:

CDU: 41%
Their potential is even higher, but they'll lose a bunch of tactical voters to the FDP.

SPD: 27%
The SPD share will collapse, perhaps to even lower levels than 27%. Polls generally tend to overestimate SPD support; moreover, the media climate for them is toxic right now. In the end, a great number of SPD voters will stay at home.

Greens: 15%
They will benefit from disgruntled SPD voters, but not enough to make up for the SPD's losses.

FDP: 8%
The "big surprise" of the evening, but not for me. The hardcore FDP supporters alone would have sufficed to put them over the 5% threshold. Now, they'll get a big number of additional votes from tactical CDU-voters.

The Left: 4%
Will profit a bit from SPD supporters who don't like Steinbrück, but not enough to make it to 5%.

Others: 5%
Pirates won't play a role in this one.

Conclusion:
Easy win for black-yellow, already foreshadowing the Bundestag results in September. Things could only get interesting if the Left somehow managed to reach over 5%. But even in this case, CDU-FDP should have a stable majority.

O,k,, here I go:

First, the major blocks:

• CDU/FPD together at 44 % - this is their average showing in the January polls, and 2-3% more than they had in the December polls. Still quite a swing, but less than the swing in current federal elections polls- those were opinions, now comes a real election.
• Sonstige (further ran) 3%. NPD below 1% (the NSU shock has not yet fully ebbed away), but quite sone eurosceptic Freie Wähler vote, plus 1% who even find the Pirates already too established
• SPD/Grüne/Linke/Piraten: 53% (which is the balance).

Now the detailed breakdown:
CDU/FPD This is tricky. I orient on the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll, which saw generic FDP support at only 2%, but also found 50% of CDU leaners favoring CDU support to lift the FDP above 5%.  For such potential "FDP loan voters' there is little incentive to "withold" their loan - an absolute CDU majority is, according to all polls, out of reach. Since the FDP does not yet appear to be 'safe', I tend to assume that roughly one quarter of potential 'FDP loan voters' will actually vote FDP. 42% CDU lean * 50% "support FDP" * 0.25 ~ 5.5%. So, my prediction is: FDP 7.5% (2% generic + 5.5%  'loan'). CDU 36.5 %, [/li][/list]

SPD: 31 % That's the easy one - the SPD is regularly polled too high (frustrated leaners not turning out, plus landline polling, which neglects cell-only voters -> Grüne, Linke, Piraten). So I take the polling consensus of 33%, minus  2% average SPD overestimate as occured in the recent state elections in Schleswig-Holstein and the Saarland.

Grüne: 14,5%.: Similar story - regularly underestimated by landline polling, plus suburbanisation (well-earning university graduates becoming parents, moving out of the posh inner-city quarters into some semi-urban area where no pollster expects anybody to vote green). So I take the polling consensus of 13%, plus 1% underestimate, plus 0.5% of disgruntled SPD leaners (and moderate / environmentalist catholics that would hate a SPD-led government, but now see black-green as a possible option).

Pirates: 2.5% 3% is the polling consensus, including INFO / YouGov (internet polling). Now, if there is anybody who should have a good grab at the Pirate's support, it is an internet pollster, so  I don't see the Pirates crossing 3%. In neighbouring Schleswig-Holstein, the Pirates have so far performed rather poorly in the state legislature, which people (at least in the northern half of Lower Saxony) will have noticed.

Linke: 5 % All landline polls have them at 3%, but INFO/ YouGov internet polling at 6%. In 2008 they performed 2% better than the poll average (landline polling issue), and they may repeat this. They are also quite likely to pick up some disgruntled SPD voters.

Bottomline: A nailbiter. Decimals will decide whether the Linke passes 5%, and whether black-yellow or red-green is in front (which is becoming irrelevant if the Linke make it past the 5% hurdle). Furthermore, as CDU overhanging mandates are likely (resulting in additional compensation mandates that complicate seat allocation), it will take several hours until the winners are known (if there are any).
 

[Tender Branson]

My Niedersachsen prediction:

42% CDU
31% SPD
13% Greens
  5% FDP (slightly above 5% to be exact)
  3% Left
  3% Pirates
  3% Others

CDU-FDP re-elected with 47% vs. 44%.

[palandio]

My prediction:
CDU 37-40%
SPD slightly below 30% (bad trend)
Greens 14-15%
FDP 6-7% (including tactical vote)
Left 4-5% (profitting from disgruntled SPD voters, but seen as "lost vote")
Pirates 3%
Others 3-4%

CDU/FDP slightly favored, but very close.

[Franzl]

My prediction:

CDU 39.5
SPD 29.5
Grüne 15.0
FDP 6.0

Linke 4.5
Piraten 2.0

sonstige 3.5


CDU + FDP (black-yellow): 45.5
SPD + Greens (red-green): 44.5

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Prediction

CDU 41.0
SPD 28.0
Grüne 15.5

Linke 4.5
FDP 4.5
Piraten 3.5
sonstige 3.0