SurveyUsa - Florida likes Paul Ryan

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The 'female' crosstabs on the last section are bizarre, and can probably be worked on with reference to Ryan's voting record on things like abortion and fair pay.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Didn't you guys used to be fixated on running a campaign that was about the issues?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Of course, Paul Ryan will still be a youthful, vigorous, and allegedly handsome man. Meanwhile, Joe Biden's hairplugs and botox seem to be unraveling. And I say that as someone who rather likes Mr. Biden.

I refuse to believe enough voters are quite that shallow. Then again, I've never overestimated human shallowness in the past.

If you do some division this just looks like a VP bounce of about two and a half points (as I see you've calculated yourself as well). That could prove long-lasting or it could prove ephemeral and it might be the wrong way to look at it considering the different set of questions being asked here but somehow I doubt that over one-sixth of voters will actually change their preferences based upon the running mate pick come November.

Politico, Obama's administration has increased the amount of respect afforded to members of many or most marginal groups by the United States government and its agents, and he's propped up the economy, although it obviously hasn't been firing on all cylinders.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Not a surprise to me.  Seniors know Medicare is going broke and Ryan is honest enough to say so then offer a solution

It's a solution that makes Medicare sh**ttier. We shouldn't accept bad solutions, even if they do solve the imminent problem, which I'm still not convinced Ryan's suggestions will.

It occurs to me that asking these types of questions in a way that foregrounds Ryan might have resulted in more people answering 'yes' to Question 5 than they would have otherwise.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How's this R40/D33/27 sample, by the way?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I of course agree that we should be patient and wait for more data beyond this and the Purple poll.  A week from now, pre-convention, there should be some post-bounce numbers.  But scanning the crosstabs shows net favorability among independents and zero net favorability among (Obama-leaning) moderates.  In an RV poll, he does well among seniors and does better among landline respondents, who I would guess are more likely to actually vote in November than other groups.  It is certainly not bad news for the ticket and anyone who went around saying "lolz Romney just lost Florida" was incorrect- Ryan only causes Romney to lose Florida if Obama can convince seniors that Romney will cut their own Medicare.

Which is [not] going to happen since he's facing the most inept [Obama's] presidential campaign [is only talking about tax returns and how bad it is to be well-off] in modern times.

Fixed.

It's bad to be a disensouled tax-dodging pimpernel, hack.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I of course agree that we should be patient and wait for more data beyond this and the Purple poll.  A week from now, pre-convention, there should be some post-bounce numbers.  But scanning the crosstabs shows net favorability among independents and zero net favorability among (Obama-leaning) moderates.  In an RV poll, he does well among seniors and does better among landline respondents, who I would guess are more likely to actually vote in November than other groups.  It is certainly not bad news for the ticket and anyone who went around saying "lolz Romney just lost Florida" was incorrect- Ryan only causes Romney to lose Florida if Obama can convince seniors that Romney will cut their own Medicare.

Which is [not] going to happen since he's facing the most inept [Obama's] presidential campaign [is only talking about tax returns and how bad it is to be well-off] in modern times.

Fixed.

It's bad to be a disensouled tax-dodging pimpernel, hack.

Being a failed president is even worse. Obviously only one of the two apply to either candidate. But I do find it telling that you and your ilk implicitly believe the IRS to be stooges that have allowed Romney to get away with fiscal murder. Meanwhile, you have no problem with Harry Reid, a man supposedly of modest means, somehow being able to afford to live at the Ritz Carlton.

Serial hypocrisy and failed policies. No wonder nobody is taking Democrats seriously anymore, and siding with Romney/Ryan on ending the era of Big Governmet. Keep it up and you'll soon have a 1980 landslide to cry over.

I'm not even going to deal with most of this post except to point out that you misspelled 'Big Government', but are you seriously claiming that tax-dodging doesn't exist?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Getting back to the subject at hand, I'd also like to point out that this survey indicates that the Ryan selection makes those independents who are swayed by it less likely to vote for Romney by a similar but inverted margin to the (skewed by the awful sample) topline.

[BEWARE! RESULTS OF DIVISION INVOLVING <1 NUMBERS AHEAD!]

If any of you guys are interested, if we assume a D37-R36-I27 electorate for 2012 (which we will remember is one point more Democratic than 2010 relative to the Republicans though SurveyUSA might have also underpolled independents or something) and keep all of the other numbers the same, including, shall we say, oddities like thirty-five per cent of Democrats whose minds are changed by the Ryan pick having their minds changed by it in a favorable direction, we end up with...a less-than-two-per-cent bounce, and remain with the inherently ridiculous (for purposes of prognosticating about November) number of sixteen and a half per cent of Florida voters having their preferences changed by a Vice-Presidential pick in August.

We're also still left with stuff, for example, like Ryan at 36-34 favorable among women and 51-30 among men, but men who have 'changed their minds' exactly tied as to which direction and women in the same position breaking 63-35 Republican. If you're interested in partisan rather than sexual divides, the equivalent numbers for Democratic voters are 13-60, 35-65.

Also, the topline exceeds two-thirds landline phones. That's about the division between people who even own landlines and people who solely use cell phones, and many people these days, myself included, have landlines but primarily use cell phones.

All of which, of course, matters only insofar as it shows why this is not a good poll.

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Yeah. I'm really panicking here.