2004 if no Iraq war (mini TL)

[reagan84]

Forgive me for this lame attempt at a TL.  I'm still a rookie and hope to get better in time.
In RL, Bush had a 50% approval rating and support for the war was also about 50/50.  Suppose that Bush makes the decision not to go through with the invasion.
I don't think he loses much support among conservatives, liberals still would hate him but his support among independents remains pretty strong.  He holds an approval rating in the upper 50s on election day and handily wins against any DEM.  He does 3% better across the board, which is enough to flip WI, PA and NH.
   

 Bush 321- Kerry 217

   Bush's 2nd term is still tough.  He loses support after Katrina and his push for immigration reform.  By the end of his 2nd term, his approval is down to the mid 40s.  DEMS take the House in '06 and the Senate in '08.

2008 election:
  GOP: Bruising primary with Romney, Huck, Thompson, McCain.  Without the surge, McCain does not win the nomination.  Huck comes out on top but fails to unite the party and chooses T-Paw as his VP
  DEMS: With no Iraq, Hillary wins all the way but Obama still does well in the primaries and is chosen for VP.
  Very polarizing urban/rural divide.  With Bush less unpopular, the GOP is more competitive.  In a close election in which several states are decided by a razor thin 1%  margins, Clinton pulls out a narrow win.
 

  Clinton/Obama 271   Huckabee/Pawlenty 267

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Iraq War wouldn't have made THAT much difference in 2008 - Katrina really started the undoing of Bush, include Afghanistan and the economic collapse... that's enough.

[reagan84]

Yes, Bush is still not very popular (low-mid 40s), which hurts but Huck/T-Paw represents more of a fresh face of the GOP and can more effectively distance themselves.  I recognize that my 2008 map could be a bit generous for the GOP (WI, MN) but Clinton still wins.
Do you agree that Clinton defeats Obama with no Iraq?

[-]

The Iraq War wouldn't have made THAT much difference in 2008 - Katrina really started the undoing of Bush, include Afghanistan and the economic collapse... that's enough.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes, Bush is still not very popular (low-mid 40s), which hurts but Huck/T-Paw represents more of a fresh face of the GOP and can more effectively distance themselves.  I recognize that my 2008 map could be a bit generous for the GOP (WI, MN) but Clinton still wins.
Do you agree that Clinton defeats Obama with no Iraq?

Not necessarily, Clinton's position on Iraq weakened her to a degree, but Iraq was equally not a big factor in the Dem primary. It was the change mantra that was so effective. The public wanted change, Obama represented that, Clinton did not. She may have done better, but Obama probably would still have won the nomination.

Huckabee would have probably done worse than McCain, and Paw-Paw doesn't bring that much to the table, I doubt he swings MN.

With McCain out of the picture, Clinton's strength among latinos gives her the SW, she might not have gotten the massive margins that Obama had, but she wouldn't have done as badly in the "south" and lower plains as Obama.