Oregon Is Turning Republican

[WalterMitty]

This has more to do with liberal Independents not alligning themselves with the Democrats more than naything else.  As long as Dems have the advantage among Indpendent voters at Election time (which they have, and recent elections show that advanatge is growing) it doesn't really matter.

Exactly.

Democrats are losing the rural working-class voterbase.  Morrow County, which voted 2-to-1 Bush, recently had a Democratic registration advantage.  The new guard that will keep the Dems in power in Oregon is an increasingly liberal independent constituency.  This is also true in Washington.

This also explains much of the suburban mid atlantic & northeast, such as Long Island (with the 04 9/11 factor being an exception).  While registration here has trended more & more Democratic,which explains part of it, the reason the shift has been as large as it has is Independents use to lean Republican in their voting, now they lean Democratic by a decent margin.

the 9/11 factor did not exist.

as lewis has explained, the 2004 returns in places like the long island were simply a correction from the skewed 2000 results.

[WalterMitty]

This has more to do with liberal Independents not alligning themselves with the Democrats more than naything else.  As long as Dems have the advantage among Indpendent voters at Election time (which they have, and recent elections show that advanatge is growing) it doesn't really matter.

Exactly.

Democrats are losing the rural working-class voterbase.  Morrow County, which voted 2-to-1 Bush, recently had a Democratic registration advantage.  The new guard that will keep the Dems in power in Oregon is an increasingly liberal independent constituency.  This is also true in Washington.

This also explains much of the suburban mid atlantic & northeast, such as Long Island (with the 04 9/11 factor being an exception).  While registration here has trended more & more Democratic,which explains part of it, the reason the shift has been as large as it has is Independents use to lean Republican in their voting, now they lean Democratic by a decent margin.

the 9/11 factor did not exist.

as lewis has explained, the 2004 returns in places like the long island were simply a correction from the skewed 2000 results.

Of course the '9/11 factor' existed - Bush did not make substantive gains in states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island due to the fact that voters in these states were coming home to Southern-accented Republicanism and conservative policies. They were paying homage to his War On Terror and perceived tough stance on Terrorism and Homeland Security. 

also, dont overlook the gay marriage debate.  here in massachusetts, a lot of otherwise democrat voters are still upset over the state legalizing gay marriage.