Canada 2011 Official Thread

[homelycooking]

Plus, Layton supposedly did well in the French-language debate, boosting the NDP's numbers in Quebec.  I didn't watch the French debate, but Iggy stunk in the English-language debate, in my opinion - he came across as entitled, impatient and surly.

Iggy had a few good lines: "you shut down everything you cannot control"; "this isn't bickering, this is democracy"; "you treat the Parliament like a little debating society that gets in your way", etc. But overall, he sounded exasperated and, you said it, impatient. I don't think he said anything meaningful about the Liberal policies all night.

Jack Layton, on the other hand, seems to have stealthily crafted his image over these past couple election cycles: building momentum in '06 and '08, not getting too worked up over the prorogation and "coalition with the seperatists" nonsense, looking more and more "ministerial" all the time. He's always struck me as a very shrewd guy, if somewhat bland.

[cinyc]

If there was a turning point in the Liberal campaign, it's probably their decision to run this over-the-top ad.  The subtext of the ad basically states vote Liberal or Harper will kill you... flatline... which simply isn't believable - especially when the Liberals themselves were the last to cut federal health funding.   Not only that, but the original version of the ad claimed Harper said something that he never did - which has added more attention to it.  

It's no wonder that the polls are the way there are.  The Liberal campaign, which never seemed to have much of a coherent message to begin with, is collapsing.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Plus, Layton supposedly did well in the French-language debate, boosting the NDP's numbers in Quebec.  I didn't watch the French debate, but Iggy stunk in the English-language debate, in my opinion - he came across as entitled, impatient and surly.

Iggy had a few good lines: "you shut down everything you cannot control"; "this isn't bickering, this is democracy"; "you treat the Parliament like a little debating society that gets in your way", etc. But overall, he sounded exasperated and, you said it, impatient. I don't think he said anything meaningful about the Liberal policies all night.

Not to mention extraordinarily arrogant and entitled. I half expected him at one point to turn to Layton and say "take your little party and piss off."

Frankly, he may as well have.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

So if the NDP manages to get more votes than the Libs... wtf happens?  I mean, that's gotta hurt.  Does Iggy get the second spot in the Kim Campbell Hall of Party Destruction?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

No.

Iggy did not lose, nor did Harper, Layton won. (at least so it seems atm)

[Foucaulf]

If there was a turning point in the Liberal campaign, it's probably their decision to run this over-the-top ad.  The subtext of the ad basically states vote Liberal or Harper will kill you... flatline... which simply isn't believable - especially when the Liberals themselves were the last to cut federal health funding.   Not only that, but the original version of the ad claimed Harper said something that he never did - which has added more attention to it.  

It's no wonder that the polls are the way there are.  The Liberal campaign, which never seemed to have much of a coherent message to begin with, is collapsing.

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Is Ignatieff really focusing his NDP attack on the guns issue? I thought the Liberal "soldiers with guns" ad back in 2006 taught them a lesson.

So if the NDP manages to get more votes than the Libs... wtf happens?  I mean, that's gotta hurt.  Does Iggy get the second spot in the Kim Campbell Hall of Party Destruction?

To be fair, Campbell only failed because she could not reverse her party's decline. And Turner's collapse is more numerically spectacular than the recent Liberal debacle.
The worst outcome is that the Liberals will be slowly squeezed out of government, both federal and provincial. It seems evident Ignatieff will not make sufficient gains federally, and it's likely the Ontario Liberal government will be kicked out of office. At that point, the only Liberal party in government will be the Liberal Party of Prince Edward Island, a province of 100000 people.
The Liberal brand has only survived because it is supposed to be a catch-all. A powerless Liberal administration, as feudal as it was in power, isn't worth much.

[Verily]

NDP up big again in Nanos, this time more from the Conservatives, though. NDP is at 26% in Quebec, behind the Bloc at 31% (18% Lib, 16% Con).

Conservative	37.8%	-1.2
Liberal	26.1%	-0.6
NDP	23.7%	+1.6
BQ	7.4%	-0.1
Green	3.5%	+0.1

Interestingly, despite all of this, the NDP has not once polled at its 2008 level in Ontario in April (in Nanos). Currently at 16.5%, down from 18.2% in 2008.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The NDP's Quebec numbers are ahead of their Federal numbers (IE Quebec is brining the NDP up) while their Ontario numbers are below their Federal numbers (IE Ontario is bringing the NDP down)

This is quite an unusual state of affairs.

[Hatman 🍁]

To be fair, the NDP really maxed out in the 2008 election in Ontario. What seats could they gain without a momentous gain in their direction? Kenora? I doubt is, we were in third. Oshawa? Yeah right... Davenport? Maybe... we're winning the sign war there. Beaches? Not without Marilyn Churley. Parkdale? Kennedy is invincible. York South-Weston? We need better numbers...

[Meeker]

So if the Liberals end up losing seats, would Iggy be out as leader? And if so who would take his place?

[Linus Van Pelt]

Given that things aren't that different outside Quebec from the pre-election polls, I wouldn't look to English ads or the English debate as the main cause of the issue.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Does Harper really think his pledge to not govern from second place will gain him any seats? (link - CBC)  I can't seriously see a Liberal/NDP coalition (or an NDP/Liberal coalition if the NDP get a miraculous second place) as neither party would be amenable to that.

[tpfkaw]

Does Harper really think his pledge to not govern from second place will gain him any seats? (link - CBC)  I can't seriously see a Liberal/NDP coalition (or an NDP/Liberal coalition if the NDP get a miraculous second place) as neither party would be amenable to that.

What's the point of forcing an election, then?

[Lief 🗽]

Apparently the Tories are scared of the NDP now: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PYTd52pT28&feature=youtu.be

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Does Harper really think his pledge to not govern from second place will gain him any seats? (link - CBC)  I can't seriously see a Liberal/NDP coalition (or an NDP/Liberal coalition if the NDP get a miraculous second place) as neither party would be amenable to that.

What's the point of forcing an election, then?

Obviously Iggy thought things would go differently once the campaign started.  Also, 2012 in general will likely be a better election environment for incumbents than right now is.

[cinyc]

Does Harper really think his pledge to not govern from second place will gain him any seats? (link - CBC)  I can't seriously see a Liberal/NDP coalition (or an NDP/Liberal coalition if the NDP get a miraculous second place) as neither party would be amenable to that.

What's the point of forcing an election, then?

Obviously Iggy thought things would go differently once the campaign started.  Also, 2012 in general will likely be a better election environment for incumbents than right now is.

Canada's census was taken this year.  By 2012, there will be a reapportionment, which will undoubtedly add seats in the west.  That also needed to be taken into account.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is it just me, or do most Canadian political ads seem more like parodies of ads rather than actual ads?

[You kip if you want to...]

Those attacks on Jack layton seem a bit like what the UK parties tried to do to Nick Clegg during the Cleggmania of the debates. Once the momentum's started, it doesn't work.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does Harper really think his pledge to not govern from second place will gain him any seats? (link - CBC)  I can't seriously see a Liberal/NDP coalition (or an NDP/Liberal coalition if the NDP get a miraculous second place) as neither party would be amenable to that.

What's the point of forcing an election, then?

Obviously Iggy thought things would go differently once the campaign started.  Also, 2012 in general will likely be a better election environment for incumbents than right now is.

Canada's census was taken this year.  By 2012, there will be a reapportionment, which will undoubtedly add seats in the west.  That also needed to be taken into account.

Will be. Not was.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It usually takes them 3 years to re-adjust the boundaries from the date of the start of the Census.

2004, 1994, 1984, 1974, 1964 IIRC are the most recent dates.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will Canada's weird laws on election coverage affect us at all?

[tpfkaw]

Those attacks on Jack layton seem a bit like what the UK parties tried to do to Nick Clegg during the Cleggmania of the debates. Once the momentum's started, it doesn't work.

It worked during Palinmania (which had McCain leading Michigan at its height).

[Marokai Backbeat]

Those attacks on Jack layton seem a bit like what the UK parties tried to do to Nick Clegg during the Cleggmania of the debates. Once the momentum's started, it doesn't work.

It worked during Palinmania (which had McCain leading Michigan at its height).

Like most things you post, I don't think the two things are even remotely comparable. And besides, Palin was sort of deflating on her own more and more. The more people heard from her, the less they liked her. Layton is kind of the opposite, in a way.

[homelycooking]

Do the Tories have anything to say about the other parties besides the "they're seperatist enablers" nonsense? And does this actually play well out West or in Ontario?

[Verily]

Do the Tories have anything to say about the other parties besides the "they're seperatist enablers" nonsense? And does this actually play well out West or in Ontario?

Well, they call the Liberals bumbling idiots. But so does everyone else, and it's true.