Wisconsin Megathread

[redjohn]

It says a lot about the state of WI Dems when Evers is the best candidate. Walker will win, probably by a larger margin than 2014.

[redjohn]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

It's a tossup, but it depends on the candidate. Evers will lose to Walker.

[redjohn]

Voted for Tim Burns. Hoping Dallet and Burns make it through the primary, but questioning whether even low turnout could leave the field with just two left-wingers. Guess we'll find out later.

[redjohn]

Walker's approval is nearly identical to Trump's in a new PPP poll:

Walker:
Approve 43%
Disapprove 52%

Trump:
Approve 44%
Disapprove 52%

Obviously, not good for Walker

Trump's approval doesn't look bad in Wisconsin. 44% approve (MOE not on document), Trump received 47.22% of the vote (only about 3% higher than approval rating), and presumably, some chunk of the unsure 4% will vote for Trump. The disapprove vote won't go solely to Democrats; 6.33% of the vote in 2016 went to other candidates. Subtract six percent from the "disapprove", give Trump the benefit of the MOE, and you have a real problem if Democrats are once again virtually tied in Wisconsin. Walker's approval rating is definitely looking bad for Republicans because third-party gubernatorial candidates only received about 1% in the last election, but Trump is looking steadier than some would lead you to believe.

[redjohn]

Looks like Dallet vs Screnock. Oh well.

[redjohn]

Horrid numbers for the Dems in this poll. Walker treading even with all his struggles means he can only improve in his numbers from here.

Not with a 12% gap in voter enthusiasm.

It will be hard for him, but he's in a better position right now than I thought he would be by the end of his presidential run. Being back to 47/47 really does mean he has a fighting chance to get a third term, especially considering that no one knows the people running against him! Sure, he'll need to find a way to get Republicans to turn out and vote for him, which is easier said than done, but if anyone can find a way, my money would be on Scott Walker.

The stupid attempt to recall Walker permitted him to build an organization to survive the recall and get him re-elected.  He may be able to gear up that organization again for a third time.

Exactly. This is not a race that's looking favorable for Dems... Evers is a lousy candidate. He's not inspiring or remotely interesting, and he'll lose to Walker, for whom the burbs and rural areas will actually show up for. He'll get disastrous numbers in Milwaukee, where Democratic turnout has dropped in recent years. I'll be voting for Mitchell, who actually stands a chance against Walker. If Evers wins the primary, Dems are toast.

[redjohn]

Can WI democrats flip WI House and WI senate?

Severely unlikely, as they are packed in Dane County and Milwaukee, and seem to have cratered in the Driftless Area due to Clintonian/Sunbelt Billionaire identity politics.

Totally ignoring Supreme court/special results I see.

A "quasi-nonpartisan" Supreme Court race and local races don't change the fact that Walker's approval actually took a bounce early this year and as much as people hate him, they're not that motivated to turn him away. (Remember the stupidity that was the recall?)

To the contrary, the results of next Tuesday's Supreme Court race will tell us quite a bit about how the Wisconsin electorate is feeling. If Dallet wins (which she likely will), the margin will be telling, as well as whether turnout is still depressed in critical parts of the state. Driftless area can flip much quicker than some would expect. Will it be enough to flip either chamber this fall? We'll see. But don't write it off; it is possible (even if currently unlikely).

[redjohn]

God, Walker is such a shameless hack. Hoping for a big Dallet victory next week to send him running scared.

[redjohn]

Madison voters energized. Several friends casting their first votes (for Dallet, among others) today.

[redjohn]

Wonder how Milwaukee turnouts/votes today. The liberal-leaning candidates (combined) won with a 26-point margin there in the spring primary; Clinton won Milwaukee County by 37 points. Obviously a completely different electorate, but a big margin in Milwaukee probably hands it to Dallet. If Dallet can win most of the counties that swung to Trump, though, she may not need a Presidential-style margin in Milwaukee.

[redjohn]

Cautiously optimistic.

[redjohn]

Screnock doing worse in Waukesha than he did in the primary, where he lost by a decent margin with the liberal candidates combined.

[redjohn]

Looking excellent for Dallet.

[redjohn]

With only 17% reporting, the power-grabbing referendum to eliminate the State Treasurer is failing 60-40.

[redjohn]

Think Dallet wins by 8-10 points.

[redjohn]

Really interesting that Screnock is underperforming percentage-wise in a lot of counties that are heavily reporting; many assumed he'd do better in this election because conservatives weren't as motivated to vote in primary with one conservative.

[redjohn]

Ok, this might actually be a problem. Most of Milwaukee county is in, and Dallet is only leading there 66-34. Moderately worse margin than both Clinton and Obama.

Screnock got 37% there in the primary and still 'lost' by like six points statewide.

[redjohn]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

[redjohn]

Still think Walker has a better chance against Evers; Mitchell would almost certainly win the general against Walker. With the Supreme Court landslide, Evers seems in a better position than I thought previously, but it's still going to be a rough race in which Walker could very possibly win re-election.

Mitchell really is a nobody, he's not well known, has no real strength out in the country which Evers has won multiple times in the past and who the Dems need to win the race.

And how many people know who Evers is? Name recognition at this point doesn't matter that much, in my opinion. The last poll (Marquette) had 45% of Democrats undecided. Mitchell would be able to turnout more voters in Milwaukee, where Democrats have underperformed in recent elections.

[redjohn]

Mitchell all the way; much better shot of winning against Walker than Evers.

[redjohn]

Mitchell is screwed in the primary since his natural base in the city won't show up for a primary.

Madison is going to turn out regardless of who the candidate is, and way more people are going to turn out for Mitchell in Milwaukee than Evers.