Eden Monaro by-election 4th of July

[Lord Halifax]

According to the betting markets ALP are bigly favored to win this thing, but there is an internal from 12/6 with the Liberals ahead.

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6163550597001

[Lord Halifax]

Two new polls, both from uComms.   

One from 18/6 with ALP at 53% and the Liberals at 47% in the two party vote and one from 16/6 with ALP at 52% and the Liberals at 48%.

[Lord Halifax]

So how do Aussie posters see the situation now? Still, Labor's to lose?

[Lord Halifax]

Morrison is currently getting sky-high approval ratings after Australia's relatively sure-footed approach to tackling coronavirus - if the coalition lose here despite that, might it worry them a bit?

FWIW it's extremely rare for the party in government in Australia to flip a seat in a by-election, so it wouldn't be a special electoral indictment. However, I do find it interesting that the two party preferred vote in polling is stuck at 51-49 LNP despite Morrison's sky high favorables.

What polls are you referring to?

[Lord Halifax]

The last few Newspolls, as well as a Morgan poll showing 50.5-49.5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Australian_federal_election

Okay, I thought you were talking about Eden-Monaro.

Labor seems to be on top of the postal voting game.

"That suggests that the Labor party is making sure many of its older and less mobile voters actually get their vote in."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-29/eden-monaro-early-voting-popular-among-voters/12401256