California by city

[vileplume]

Did Trump win Bakersfield in the end?

He won by 6.4% in 2016 and there was a 2.5% Dem swing in Kern County this year. However Bakerfield is less Latino than the county as a whole so the you'd expect the Dem swing to be at least a bit larger. I imagine it was close either way.

[vileplume]

This took not too long but I got delayed since I wanted to break down San Jose by district to microanalyze all the swings given that it's basically an amalgamation of suburbs that range from Silicon Valley in the West to hills in the South and East.

Anyways, the swings in Santa Clara County were quite interesting. To paint a demographic picture, the county is 30% non-Hispanic White, 40% Asian, and 25% Latino with a population of around 2 million residents. It is also one of the wealthiest counties in the country with a median home values of $1 million and a median income of $125,000. I'll do a rundown based on city groupings and then breakdown San Jose in the end.

Group 1: Wealthy Silicon Valley Suburbs
In this group, we have Los Altos Hills, Monte Sereno, Los Altos, Saratoga, Palo Alto, and Los Gatos. These towns are where you'll find half of Silicon Valley's billionaire class, or at least the half that lives in Santa Clara County. Monte Sereno and Los Altos Hills are small, with both less than 10,000 strong, whereas Los Altos, Saratoga, and Los Gatos are all at around 30,000 people, and Palo Alto is close to 65,000. All these cities are mostly white, but every town except Los Gatos and Monte Sereno is at least 30% Asian, while Saratoga is majority Asian, and every town is less than 10% Hispanic.

Los Altos Hills
2016: 68.65 - 24.43 Clinton
2020: 73.27 - 24.15 Biden (D +4.90)

Monte Sereno
2016: 65.27 - 28.52 Clinton
2020: 67.44 - 30.76 Biden (R +0.06)

Los Altos
2016: 75.40 - 19.10 Clinton
2020: 79.74 - 18.25 Biden (D +5.19)

Saratoga
2016: 68.58 - 25.60 Clinton
2020: 71.99 - 25.87 Biden (D +3.14)

Palo Alto
2016: 82.47 - 12.20 Clinton
2020: 83.98 - 14.00 Biden (R +0.30)

Los Gatos
2016: 69.04 - 24.93 Clinton
2020: 72.03 - 25.58 Biden (D +2.34)

While conventional wisdom would suggest that Los Gatos or Monte Sereno should have the largest swing left or the smallest Trump swing due to their heavily White population, it turns out that Monte Sereno swung right and three far more diverse towns swung more than Los Gatos did to Biden. Palo Alto seems to also have had a Trump swing, which is a little more confusing since Stanford isn't included in the town's voting numbers, so the explanation is still out. Every town did have an increase in Democratic vote share, so Trump may just have rebounded with some Republicans.

Group 2: Affluent Urban-Suburban Tech Headquarters
In this group, we have Mountain View and Cupertino, home to Google and Apple respectively and both very desirable and slightly cheaper than the towns in the first group. Cupertino and Mountain View are larger towns, with populations of 60,000 and 80,000, and have more of an urban feel with a number of tech offices in both cities. Cupertino is around 70% Asian and 25% White while Mountain View is definitely more diverse at 45% White and 30% Asian, and it's the first town out of those mentioned with a larger Hispanic population at around 20%.

Cupertino
2016: 74.66 - 20.14 Clinton
2020: 75.00 - 22.90 Biden (R +2.43)

Mountain View
2016: 80.41 - 13.31 Clinton
2020: 82.47 - 15.26 Biden (D +0.11)

Cupertino shows the first clear swing to Trump out of any town, but it is still relatively small given its demographics, while Mountain View still swung Democratic despite having a larger Hispanic population. I'm beginning to think these towns have people with lives generally fine in a fiscal sense so things like Prop 16 can sour voter perspective on Democrats, and I honestly think it's partially to blame for some of the swing in Cupertino. Regardless, Biden increased the Democratic vote share in both towns.

Group 3: Middle Class Asian Meccas
In this group, we have Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, and Milpitas. The cities in this group are even larger than the ones in the last group, with Sunnyvale at around 120,000 residents and Santa Clara at 115,000, while Milpitas has 85,000. These towns are all locally known as being Asian hubs, often where immigrants first flock to when they land in the valley. Unlike Cupertino, they are more diverse, with Santa Clara and Sunnyvale around 45% Asian and 30% White with 20% of the population Hispanic, while Milpitas is 70% Asian, and actually more Hispanic than White, with 15% of the population being Hispanic, while 10% are White.

Sunnyvale
2016: 75.22 - 18.50 Clinton
2020: 76.66 - 20.93 Biden (R +0.99)

Santa Clara
2016: 73.22 - 20.44 Clinton
2020: 74.38 - 23.55 Biden (R +1.94)

Milpitas
2016: 73.48 - 21.31 Clinton
2020: 67.93 - 30.45 Biden (R +14.69) (!!!)

Sunnyvale and Santa Clara look normal and their small swings are actually surprising given their demographics, but Milpitas is the first town where there is a clear and heavy Trump swing. Almost all of this can be attributed to the demographic makeup. The Asian population in Milpitas has a heavy Filipino and Vietnamese contingent that is not really present in any of the cities in the first two groups, which are far more Chinese and Indian. Milpitas is also far less educated than any other city mentioned, also pointing to a Trump swing. Nevertheless, such a drastic swing is pretty stunning to see, but as you'll see later on there are larger ones yet to come.

Group 4: Farming Towns and Campbell
In this group, we have Campbell, Morgan Hill, and Gilroy. While the latter two are farming communities practically unconnected to the rest of the county and barely even part of the Bay Area, they are still relatively well off towns with incomes over $100k. Campbell on the other hand is not Asian enough, not techy enough, and not wealthy enough to fit in any of the first three groups, but is more like a part of San Jose than a town with its own identity. These towns are all similar in size, with Campbell and Morgan Hill at around 40,000 residents with Gilroy at 60,000. Gilroy is 60% Hispanic and 30% White, while Morgan Hill is around 50% White and 30% Hispanic, with Campbell at 50% White, 20% Asian, and 20% Hispanic.

Campbell
2016: 70.84 - 22.49 Clinton
2020: 73.65 - 23.89 Biden (D +1.41)

Morgan Hill
2016: 60.49 - 32.54 Clinton
2020: 64.40 - 32.95 Biden (D +3.51)

Gilroy
2016: 65.48 - 28.41 Clinton
2020: 67.62 - 30.17 Biden (D +0.38)

The swings here are actually extremely surprising given the racial makeup of these towns. Gilroy seems to be one of the few Hispanic majority places nationwide that swung to Biden, with Morgan Hill and Campbell having larger swings despite a heavy nonwhite population. I'm not sure what exactly caused this sort of swing against Trump in these areas, but I have a feeling that Trump may not have improved in California farming communities given the general Democratic swing or flat trend in the Central Valley as well.

San Jose
This is the last group in the list and is only made up of San Jose, since the city makes up more than half of the entire county. San Jose is probably the least known city with over a million people nationally and has a very barren downtown with few skyscrapers thanks to the close-by airport, being more of a giant suburb than anything else. Nevertheless, it is the most diverse place in Santa Clara County, having a population that is 25% White, 30% Hispanic, and 35% Asian.

I've chosen to break down the city into its 10 city council districts so we get a better sense of where swings here happened.

District 1: West San Jose - 35% non-Hispanic White, 35% Asian, 20% Hispanic
2016: 71.70 - 21.91 Clinton
2020: 72.83 - 24.88 Biden (R +1.84)

District 2: Southeast San Jose - 30% non-Hispanic White, 25% Asian, 35% Hispanic
2016: 71.17 - 22.56 Clinton
2020: 69.72 - 28.05 Biden (R +6.94)

District 3: Downtown San Jose - 20% non-Hispanic White, 20% Asian, 50% Hispanic
2016: 81.68 - 11.78 Clinton
2020: 78.02 - 19.46 Biden (R +11.34) (!)

District 4: North San Jose - 15% non-Hispanic White, 60% Asian, 15% Hispanic
2016: 74.46 - 20.38 Clinton
2020: 68.55 - 29.70 Biden (R +15.23) (!!!)

District 5: East San Jose - 10% non-Hispanic White, 25% Asian, 60% Hispanic
2016: 81.61 - 14.08 Clinton
2020: 71.82 - 26.48 Biden (R +22.19) (!!!!!)

District 6: West-Central San Jose - 50% non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, 30% Hispanic
2016: 74.38 - 19.19 Clinton
2020: 76.87 - 20.69 Biden (D +0.99)

District 7: Central San Jose - 10% non-Hispanic White, 40% Asian, 50% Hispanic
2016: 78.30 - 17.34 Clinton
2020: 63.64 - 34.81 Biden (R +32.12) (!!!!!!!)

District 8: East San Jose - 15% non-Hispanic White, 55% Asian, 25% Hispanic
2016: 75.62 - 20.43 Clinton
2020: 68.58 - 29.99 Biden (R +16.60) (!!!)

District 9: Southwest San Jose - 60% non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, 20% Hispanic
2016: 68.54 - 24.70 Clinton
2020: 71.45 - 26.10 Biden (D +1.51)

District 10: South San Jose - 50% non-Hispanic White, 25% Asian, 20% Hispanic
2016: 67.28 - 26.84 Clinton
2020: 69.54 - 28.36 Biden (D +0.73)

San Jose
2016: 73.82 - 20.51 Clinton
2020: 71.10 - 26.85 Biden (R +9.06)

Districts 6, 9, and 10, also the only districts that were majority non-Hispanic White, swung to Biden, but all less than 3 points. District 1, the next most non-Hispanic White district swung to Trump by around 2 points, similar to the swing in nearby Cupertino. These districts are all affluent and educated, considered the nice areas of San Jose. District 2 swung to Trump by around 7 points, which was big but tempered since due to the relatively large non-Hispanic White presence. All other districts, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8, swung by at least 10 points to Trump, with District 7 having a shocking 30+ point swing. These districts were all either majority Asian or majority Hispanic and are for the most part less affluent than 1, 6, 9, and 10. Districts 2 and 8 do have some nicer areas by their hillsides, and District 4 has multiple tech business parks, but 3, 5, and 7 contain a large majority of the city's poverty. Every District has a large Asian population, but the specific nationality makes a difference. District 4 has a large Indian and Filipino population, while District 1 is more Indian and Chinese, while District 7, as seen by its swing, has a large portion of San Jose's famous Vietnamese population.

Overall, the swings here can be clearly seen if mapped out geographically, with 1, 6, 9, and 10 forming a continuous mass from the West to the South, while the other districts are all in the North and East.

Santa Clara County
2016: 73.39 - 20.77 Clinton
2020: 72.64 - 25.23 Biden (R +5.20)

The county shifted over 5 points to the right, countering most of the smaller swings in the Bay Area. Milpitas and Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 actually were responsible for the entire swing in the area, with the county swinging 0.01 points leftward without them, speaking to how big the urban Latino and Vietnamese swings ended up being. The swing here interestingly makes Santa Clara County the only one out of the 20 wealthiest counties nationwide to move rightward, and indicates a need for Democrats to keep in touch with their urban constituents as much as they try to focus on new ground.

Thanks for this. Very interesting data!

It's pretty funny that the Central San Jose council district was the most Republican in the city and indeed also more Republican than any municipality in the county...

[vileplume]

Los Angeles County, CA results (by city)
                        Biden        Trump
Beverly Hills   55.07%   43.86%   -19.97%

Dear Lord, what happened here?! Beverly Hills is like the epitome of the white latte liberal city that generally swung to Biden this year. I remember it swinging pretty Republican in 2008 and 2012 but then it swung pretty hard to Hillary in 2016, now only to swing against Biden pretty substantially. What the heck is going on in 90210?!

It's home to lot of Iranian Jews, who I've read tend to like Trump for whatever reason (possibly in part due to him withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal?) and are probably trending Republican long term too.
 
Plus I don't think Beverley Hills's liberal-left reputation is deserved, it always supports the more 'conservative' candidates in Democratic primaries, Bernie came a poor third in the primary this year (behind Bloomberg) failing to even get 10% in the northern part of the city. Beverley Hills is the kind of place that would be a stronghold of the right in literally any other country and it's only the GOP seemingly going out of their way to put off well-to-do urban voters and the Democrats staying relatively centrist that's keeping it non-Altas-blue. Whilst I think AOC (or a similar type) may well do significantly better in a presidential election than many on the right assume (many Dem trending formally GOP suburbs are not particularly economically right-leaning anymore) Beverley Hills is a good example of a place where she genuinely would lose badly, especially if the Republican nominee was a lot less 'gauche' than Trump.

[vileplume]

Los Angeles County, CA results (by city)
                        Biden        Trump
Agoura Hills   63.17%   35.03%   3.75%
Alhambra   70.75%   27.42%   -7.02%
Arcadia   59.84%   38.75%   1.74%
Artesia   61.69%   36.26%   -13.66%
Avalon   59.40%   37.89%   9.88%
Azusa   66.72%   30.97%   -5.59%
Baldwin Park   73.61%   24.33%   -15.71%
Bell   78.94%   18.44%   -15.97%
Bell Gardens   80.10%   18.13%   -17.35%
Bellflower   67.15%   30.43%   -7.64%
Beverly Hills   55.07%   43.86%   -19.97%
Bradbury   51.70%   46.90%   5.58%
Burbank   67.63%   30.35%   -1.81%
Calabasas   63.75%   34.52%   -1.06%
Carson   75.09%   23.08%   -10.79%
Cerritos   62.49%   35.82%   -4.46%
Claremont   68.07%   29.83%   1.94%
Commerce   78.35%   19.37%   -12.35%
Compton   86.58%   11.00%   -11.87%
Covina   60.91%   36.95%   -1.00%
Cudahy   80.01%   16.95%   -16.53%
Culver City   83.25%   14.83%   1.51%
Diamond Bar   58.92%   39.54%   -2.14%
Downey   66.52%   31.39%   -9.06%
Duarte   67.07%   31.00%   -3.22%
El Monte   70.28%   27.91%   -17.96%
El Segundo   63.59%    ]33.96%   6.47%
Gardena   75.38%   22.46%   -10.16%
Glendale   58.93%   39.21%   -11.04%
Glendora   48.57%   49.10%   5.82%
Hawaiian Gardens   72.12%   25.30%   -15.91%
Hawthorne   78.28%   19.39%   -9.35%
Hermosa Beach   69.35%   27.89%   4.91%
Hidden Hills   58.33%   40.18%   -3.10%
Huntington Park   80.91%   17.46%   -15.92%
Industry   45.45%   46.59%   -22.30%
Inglewood   88.62%   9.56%   -6.85%
Irwindale   69.78%   29.35%   -10.51%
La Canada Flintridge   62.18%   36.18%   6.11%
La Habra Heights   43.88%   54.49%   6.22%
La Mirada   53.47%   44.57%   -1.36%
La Puente   73.23%   24.28%   -13.96%
La Verne   50.53%   47.52%   3.71%
Lakewood   60.37%   37.45%   1.02%
Lancaster   57.71%   39.54%   5.88%
Lawndale   72.35%   25.30%   -11.09%
Lomita   58.46%   38.86%   1.41%
Long Beach   72.49%   25.01%   -0.67%
Los Angeles   76.56%   21.43%   -6.96%
Lynwood   82.00%   15.10%   -16.71%
Malibu   66.20%   31.85%   0.04%
Manhattan Beach   66.43%   31.14%   3.53%
Maywood   80.02%   17.20%   -17.33%
Monrovia   65.86%   31.71%   3.00%
Montebello   73.96%   23.92%   -9.61%
Monterey Park   68.09%   30.27%   -7.66%
Norwalk   69.27%   28.42%   -11.79%
Palmdale   63.14%   34.56%   -1.53%
Palos Verdes Estates   54.84%   42.94%   6.42%
Paramount   78.32%   19.14%   -14.43%
Pasadena   77.00%   20.84%   0.06%
Pico Rivera   74.81%   23.24%   -12.13%
Pomona   70.82%   26.64%   -9.32%
Rancho Palos Verdes   57.65%   40.15%   6.40%
Redondo Beach   67.56%   30.25%   5.62%
Rolling Hills   43.02%   54.86%   11.77%
Rolling Hills Estates   55.61%   42.58%   8.24%
Rosemead   66.91%   31.62%   -19.95%
San Dimas   50.27%   47.67%   1.66%
San Fernando   76.59%   21.05%   -11.57%
San Gabriel   66.01%   32.08%   -7.53%
San Marino   59.26%   38.71%   5.00%
Santa Clarita   53.07%   44.93%   4.94%
Santa Fe Springs   67.71%   29.82%   -11.32%
Santa Monica   81.45%   16.76%   -1.07%
Sierra Madre   65.89%   31.55%   5.86%
Signal Hill   73.46%   24.26%   1.45%
South El Monte   73.52%   23.81%   -18.53%
South Gate   78.58%   19.08%   -15.62%
South Pasadena   78.98%   18.80%   3.83%
Temple City   59.98%   38.24%   -1.88%
Torrance   60.23%   37.53%   3.27%
Vernon   68.04%   31.96%   -20.17%
Walnut   61.51%   37.04%   -4.44%
West Covina   65.01%   33.23%   -6.67%
West Hollywood   82.20%   16.42%   -6.75%
Westlake Village   57.51%   40.45%   4.79%
Whittier   62.74%   35.01%   -0.50%

I apologize if I made any errors with the colors anywhere. This is a big one.

There are no real surprises here when you look at overall trends everywhere else. Los Angeles County has a great deal of restaurant and retail jobs in the suburban areas that swung towards Trump, so Trump campaigning on re-opening everything probably helped him a great deal. Most of Biden's gains were in areas with higher white populations.

In LA do you know what the reason for that random Trump +10 precinct in East Hollywood (it was Clinton+21 in 2016 so it's clearly not always an anomalous solidly GOP area)? I did notice that there's a Church of Scientology in the precinct, could that be the reason?