California by city

[mileslunn]

I've noticed there have been threads for various counties posting California results by city, so thought until state combines them, best to put them in one election. 

Alameda County has following so using municipal and maps if anyone is willing to number crunch would be great.  I can work on it but kind of tough with spreadsheet.

https://www.acvote.org/election-information/elections?id=241#

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yeah, I've been fascinated by the SoCal results but I don't know whether to continue posting IE results in the OC thread, create a seperate one ala Ventura or in this megathread

[mileslunn]

Yeah, I've been fascinated by the SoCal results but I don't know whether to continue posting IE results in the OC thread, create a seperate one ala Ventura or in this megathread

  A megathread for all counties would be great as easy location.  At first made sense separately but as more come in best to consolidate.

[DrScholl]

San Luis Obispo County by county
                        Biden        Trump      (Swing towards Democratic compared to 2016)
Arroyo Grande   54.32%   42.93%   8.40%
Atascadero   49.37%   48.87%   4.81%
El Paso de Robles   47.68%   49.92%   6.79%
Grover Beach   54.44%   43.13%   1.20%
Morro Bay   63.19%   34.64%   7.49%
Pismo Beach   53.29%   44.70%   4.06%
San Luis Obispo   74.84%   22.26%   6.63%
Unincorporated   50.46%   47.23%   3.19%

It's county that is a mix of rural and suburban type communities. California Polytechnic University helps give San Luis Obispo it's liberal lean, but the city is similar to Santa Barbara in terms of a liberal culture. The county also is wine country and strongly agricultural. Overall it's a place that could be out of a Hallmark movie.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Damn, so close to a clean sweep in SLO.

Still incredible that it's running away to the Dems as quickly as Colorado is.

Beauitful county. I'd love to move out there one day

[E-Dawg]

Anyone have results for Tulare County?

[DrScholl]

Anyone have results for Tulare County?

Give me less than a half hour and I'll have them for you.

Tulare County, CA results (by city)

   Biden   Trump           (Swing to or from Democratic compared to 2016)
Dinuba   58.32%   38.31%   -5.91%
Exeter   33.60%   63.44%   1.62%
Farmersville   62.31%   33.84%   -9.15%
Lindsay   65.00%   31.95%   -12.72%
Porterville   48.19%   48.51%   -1.91%
Tulare   42.98%   53.69%   0.35%
Visalia   43.26%   53.07%   5.31%
Woodlake   65.97%   30.41%   -8.58%
Unincorporated   40.89%   56.17%   1.54%

[mileslunn]

Tried doing Monterey County and could get the precincts matched for all those with mayoral elections, but not those without (matched mayoral to presidential) so wondering if that one can be done.  I could also work on Alameda County as that one not too hard to do.

[mileslunn]

Anyone have results for Tulare County?

Give me less than a half hour and I'll have them for you.

Tulare County, CA results (by city)

   Biden   Trump           (Swing to or from Democratic compared to 2016)
Dinuba   58.32%   38.31%   -5.91%
Exeter   33.60%   63.44%   1.62%
Farmersville   62.31%   33.84%   -9.15%
Lindsay   65.00%   31.95%   -12.72%
Porterville   48.19%   48.51%   -1.91%
Tulare   42.98%   53.69%   0.35%
Visalia   43.26%   53.07%   5.31%
Woodlake   65.97%   30.41%   -8.58%
Unincorporated   40.89%   56.17%   1.54%

Looks like Biden won the most heavily Hispanic communities but at same time as we are seeing nationally Trump saw favorable swing in all those whereas the whiter ones swung towards Biden, but Trump still won.  When I say whiter I mean more mixed as pretty much all communities have sizeable Hispanic population here, but some are over 80% Hispanic.

[E-Dawg]

Anyone have results for Tulare County?

Give me less than a half hour and I'll have them for you.

Tulare County, CA results (by city)

   Biden   Trump           (Swing to or from Democratic compared to 2016)
Dinuba   58.32%   38.31%   -5.91%
Exeter   33.60%   63.44%   1.62%
Farmersville   62.31%   33.84%   -9.15%
Lindsay   65.00%   31.95%   -12.72%
Porterville   48.19%   48.51%   -1.91%
Tulare   42.98%   53.69%   0.35%
Visalia   43.26%   53.07%   5.31%
Woodlake   65.97%   30.41%   -8.58%
Unincorporated   40.89%   56.17%   1.54%

Dang, Portersville is a Clinton-Trump city! I imagine that is because of the Hispanic GOP swing. Thanks for finding this for me. Though I am curious where you found this at?

[DrScholl]

Anyone have results for Tulare County?

Give me less than a half hour and I'll have them for you.

Tulare County, CA results (by city)

   Biden   Trump           (Swing to or from Democratic compared to 2016)
Dinuba   58.32%   38.31%   -5.91%
Exeter   33.60%   63.44%   1.62%
Farmersville   62.31%   33.84%   -9.15%
Lindsay   65.00%   31.95%   -12.72%
Porterville   48.19%   48.51%   -1.91%
Tulare   42.98%   53.69%   0.35%
Visalia   43.26%   53.07%   5.31%
Woodlake   65.97%   30.41%   -8.58%
Unincorporated   40.89%   56.17%   1.54%

Dang, Portersville is a Clinton-Trump city! I imagine that is because of the Hispanic GOP swing. Thanks for finding this for me. Though I am curious where you found this at?

Tulare County's Elections website

[E-Dawg]

Anyone have results for Tulare County?

Give me less than a half hour and I'll have them for you.

Tulare County, CA results (by city)

   Biden   Trump           (Swing to or from Democratic compared to 2016)
Dinuba   58.32%   38.31%   -5.91%
Exeter   33.60%   63.44%   1.62%
Farmersville   62.31%   33.84%   -9.15%
Lindsay   65.00%   31.95%   -12.72%
Porterville   48.19%   48.51%   -1.91%
Tulare   42.98%   53.69%   0.35%
Visalia   43.26%   53.07%   5.31%
Woodlake   65.97%   30.41%   -8.58%
Unincorporated   40.89%   56.17%   1.54%

Dang, Portersville is a Clinton-Trump city! I imagine that is because of the Hispanic GOP swing. Thanks for finding this for me. Though I am curious where you found this at?

Tulare County's Elections website

Link please? I'm looking through the website and I can't find any city results.

[DrScholl]

Monterey County, CA results (by city)
                               Biden     Trump         (Swing to or from Democratic compared to 2016)
Carmel-By-The-Sea   68.64%   29.65%   5.78%
Del Rey Oaks   66.45%   31.26%   -1.30%
Gonzales   74.61%   23.23%   -12.06%
Greenfield   78.98%   18.55%   -5.63%
King   66.81%   30.51%   -8.50%
Marina   69.94%   27.28%   1.50%
Monterey   72.84%   24.79%   3.23%
Pacific Grove   76.39%   21.63%   5.38%
Salinas   72.53%   25.39%   -3.35%
Sand City   62.50%   33.50%   -2.41%
Seaside   73.21%   24.10%   -1.50%
Soledad   75.69%   21.97%   -12.07%

[DrScholl]

Anyone have results for Tulare County?

Give me less than a half hour and I'll have them for you.

Tulare County, CA results (by city)

   Biden   Trump           (Swing to or from Democratic compared to 2016)
Dinuba   58.32%   38.31%   -5.91%
Exeter   33.60%   63.44%   1.62%
Farmersville   62.31%   33.84%   -9.15%
Lindsay   65.00%   31.95%   -12.72%
Porterville   48.19%   48.51%   -1.91%
Tulare   42.98%   53.69%   0.35%
Visalia   43.26%   53.07%   5.31%
Woodlake   65.97%   30.41%   -8.58%
Unincorporated   40.89%   56.17%   1.54%

Dang, Portersville is a Clinton-Trump city! I imagine that is because of the Hispanic GOP swing. Thanks for finding this for me. Though I am curious where you found this at?

Tulare County's Elections website

Link please? I'm looking through the website and I can't find any city results.

It's under the statement of the votes cast. You have to calculate it because the pdf just gives the raw numbers but no percentages. https://tularecoelections.org/elections/index.cfm/registrar-of-voters/current-election-information/november-3-2020-presidential-general-election/

[mileslunn]

Monterey County, CA results (by city)
                               Biden     Trump         (Swing to or from Democratic compared to 2016)
Carmel-By-The-Sea   68.64%   29.65%   5.78%
Del Rey Oaks   66.45%   31.26%   -1.30%
Gonzales   74.61%   23.23%   -12.06%
Greenfield   78.98%   18.55%   -5.63%
King   66.81%   30.51%   -8.50%
Marina   69.94%   27.28%   1.50%
Monterey   72.84%   24.79%   3.23%
Pacific Grove   76.39%   21.63%   5.38%
Salinas   72.53%   25.39%   -3.35%
Sand City   62.50%   33.50%   -2.41%
Seaside   73.21%   24.10%   -1.50%
Soledad   75.69%   21.97%   -12.07%

I know its unincorporated but curious what Carmel Valley Village was as well as Del Monte Forest (where Pebble Beach is located) if you know.

[DrScholl]

Monterey County, CA results (by city)
                               Biden     Trump         (Swing to or from Democratic compared to 2016)
Carmel-By-The-Sea   68.64%   29.65%   5.78%
Del Rey Oaks   66.45%   31.26%   -1.30%
Gonzales   74.61%   23.23%   -12.06%
Greenfield   78.98%   18.55%   -5.63%
King   66.81%   30.51%   -8.50%
Marina   69.94%   27.28%   1.50%
Monterey   72.84%   24.79%   3.23%
Pacific Grove   76.39%   21.63%   5.38%
Salinas   72.53%   25.39%   -3.35%
Sand City   62.50%   33.50%   -2.41%
Seaside   73.21%   24.10%   -1.50%
Soledad   75.69%   21.97%   -12.07%

I know its unincorporated but curious what Carmel Valley Village was as well as Del Monte Forest (where Pebble Beach is located) if you know.

Del Monte Forest
Biden 59.24% Trump 38.69%

Pebble Beach has community service district that encompasses all of Del Monte Forest so it was
easy for me to find the precincts. I need to find the precincts for Carmel Valley Village.

Carmel Valley Village
Biden 69.7% Trump 28.4%

[vileplume]

Did Trump win Bakersfield in the end?

He won by 6.4% in 2016 and there was a 2.5% Dem swing in Kern County this year. However Bakerfield is less Latino than the county as a whole so the you'd expect the Dem swing to be at least a bit larger. I imagine it was close either way.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Did Trump win Bakersfield in the end?

He won by 6.4% in 2016 and there was a 2.5% Dem swing in Kern County this year. However Bakerfield is less Latino than the county as a whole so the you'd expect the Dem swing to be at least a bit larger. I imagine it was close either way.

According to the Kern County site, Trump won Bakersfield 50.4% - 47.3%.

Looks like Biden narrowly won the mail-in vote but Trump crushed the EDay vote 65-33

[E-Dawg]

Anyone have the presidental election results for Porterville for 2008 and 2012? Since it is already a confirmed Clinton-Trump city and Tulare County voted more GOP in 2008 and 2012 than it did 2016-2020, it stands a very good chance of being the ultimate anti-bellweather McCain-Romney-Clinton-Trump city.

[NOVA Green]

Anyone have the presidental election results for Porterville for 2008 and 2012? Since it is already a confirmed Clinton-Trump city and Tulare County voted more GOP in 2008 and 2012 than it did 2016-2020, it stands a very good chance of being the ultimate anti-bellweather McCain-Romney-Clinton-Trump city.

2008: Complete Supplement to Statement of vote:

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2008-general/ssov/ssov-complete.pdf

2012: Complete Supplement to Statement of vote:

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2012-general/ssov/ssov-complete.pdf

scroll down to your county by election and it will break down by municipality

[E-Dawg]

Anyone have the presidental election results for Porterville for 2008 and 2012? Since it is already a confirmed Clinton-Trump city and Tulare County voted more GOP in 2008 and 2012 than it did 2016-2020, it stands a very good chance of being the ultimate anti-bellweather McCain-Romney-Clinton-Trump city.

2008: Complete Supplement to Statement of vote:

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2008-general/ssov/ssov-complete.pdf

2012: Complete Supplement to Statement of vote:

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2012-general/ssov/ssov-complete.pdf

scroll down to your county by election and it will break down by municipality

Thank you for this! With these results, I can confirm that Porterville is a McCain-Romney-Clinton-Trump city.

[CityByTheValley]

This took not too long but I got delayed since I wanted to break down San Jose by district to microanalyze all the swings given that it's basically an amalgamation of suburbs that range from Silicon Valley in the West to hills in the South and East.

Anyways, the swings in Santa Clara County were quite interesting. To paint a demographic picture, the county is 30% non-Hispanic White, 40% Asian, and 25% Latino with a population of around 2 million residents. It is also one of the wealthiest counties in the country with a median home values of $1 million and a median income of $125,000. I'll do a rundown based on city groupings and then breakdown San Jose in the end.

Group 1: Wealthy Silicon Valley Suburbs
In this group, we have Los Altos Hills, Monte Sereno, Los Altos, Saratoga, Palo Alto, and Los Gatos. These towns are where you'll find half of Silicon Valley's billionaire class, or at least the half that lives in Santa Clara County. Monte Sereno and Los Altos Hills are small, with both less than 10,000 strong, whereas Los Altos, Saratoga, and Los Gatos are all at around 30,000 people, and Palo Alto is close to 65,000. All these cities are mostly white, but every town except Los Gatos and Monte Sereno is at least 30% Asian, while Saratoga is majority Asian, and every town is less than 10% Hispanic.

Los Altos Hills
2016: 68.65 - 24.43 Clinton
2020: 73.27 - 24.15 Biden (D +4.90)

Monte Sereno
2016: 65.27 - 28.52 Clinton
2020: 67.44 - 30.76 Biden (R +0.06)

Los Altos
2016: 75.40 - 19.10 Clinton
2020: 79.74 - 18.25 Biden (D +5.19)

Saratoga
2016: 68.58 - 25.60 Clinton
2020: 71.99 - 25.87 Biden (D +3.14)

Palo Alto
2016: 82.47 - 12.20 Clinton
2020: 83.98 - 14.00 Biden (R +0.30)

Los Gatos
2016: 69.04 - 24.93 Clinton
2020: 72.03 - 25.58 Biden (D +2.34)

While conventional wisdom would suggest that Los Gatos or Monte Sereno should have the largest swing left or the smallest Trump swing due to their heavily White population, it turns out that Monte Sereno swung right and three far more diverse towns swung more than Los Gatos did to Biden. Palo Alto seems to also have had a Trump swing, which is a little more confusing since Stanford isn't included in the town's voting numbers, so the explanation is still out. Every town did have an increase in Democratic vote share, so Trump may just have rebounded with some Republicans.

Group 2: Affluent Urban-Suburban Tech Headquarters
In this group, we have Mountain View and Cupertino, home to Google and Apple respectively and both very desirable and slightly cheaper than the towns in the first group. Cupertino and Mountain View are larger towns, with populations of 60,000 and 80,000, and have more of an urban feel with a number of tech offices in both cities. Cupertino is around 70% Asian and 25% White while Mountain View is definitely more diverse at 45% White and 30% Asian, and it's the first town out of those mentioned with a larger Hispanic population at around 20%.

Cupertino
2016: 74.66 - 20.14 Clinton
2020: 75.00 - 22.90 Biden (R +2.43)

Mountain View
2016: 80.41 - 13.31 Clinton
2020: 82.47 - 15.26 Biden (D +0.11)

Cupertino shows the first clear swing to Trump out of any town, but it is still relatively small given its demographics, while Mountain View still swung Democratic despite having a larger Hispanic population. I'm beginning to think these towns have people with lives generally fine in a fiscal sense so things like Prop 16 can sour voter perspective on Democrats, and I honestly think it's partially to blame for some of the swing in Cupertino. Regardless, Biden increased the Democratic vote share in both towns.

Group 3: Middle Class Asian Meccas
In this group, we have Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, and Milpitas. The cities in this group are even larger than the ones in the last group, with Sunnyvale at around 120,000 residents and Santa Clara at 115,000, while Milpitas has 85,000. These towns are all locally known as being Asian hubs, often where immigrants first flock to when they land in the valley. Unlike Cupertino, they are more diverse, with Santa Clara and Sunnyvale around 45% Asian and 30% White with 20% of the population Hispanic, while Milpitas is 70% Asian, and actually more Hispanic than White, with 15% of the population being Hispanic, while 10% are White.

Sunnyvale
2016: 75.22 - 18.50 Clinton
2020: 76.66 - 20.93 Biden (R +0.99)

Santa Clara
2016: 73.22 - 20.44 Clinton
2020: 74.38 - 23.55 Biden (R +1.94)

Milpitas
2016: 73.48 - 21.31 Clinton
2020: 67.93 - 30.45 Biden (R +14.69) (!!!)

Sunnyvale and Santa Clara look normal and their small swings are actually surprising given their demographics, but Milpitas is the first town where there is a clear and heavy Trump swing. Almost all of this can be attributed to the demographic makeup. The Asian population in Milpitas has a heavy Filipino and Vietnamese contingent that is not really present in any of the cities in the first two groups, which are far more Chinese and Indian. Milpitas is also far less educated than any other city mentioned, also pointing to a Trump swing. Nevertheless, such a drastic swing is pretty stunning to see, but as you'll see later on there are larger ones yet to come.

Group 4: Farming Towns and Campbell
In this group, we have Campbell, Morgan Hill, and Gilroy. While the latter two are farming communities practically unconnected to the rest of the county and barely even part of the Bay Area, they are still relatively well off towns with incomes over $100k. Campbell on the other hand is not Asian enough, not techy enough, and not wealthy enough to fit in any of the first three groups, but is more like a part of San Jose than a town with its own identity. These towns are all similar in size, with Campbell and Morgan Hill at around 40,000 residents with Gilroy at 60,000. Gilroy is 60% Hispanic and 30% White, while Morgan Hill is around 50% White and 30% Hispanic, with Campbell at 50% White, 20% Asian, and 20% Hispanic.

Campbell
2016: 70.84 - 22.49 Clinton
2020: 73.65 - 23.89 Biden (D +1.41)

Morgan Hill
2016: 60.49 - 32.54 Clinton
2020: 64.40 - 32.95 Biden (D +3.51)

Gilroy
2016: 65.48 - 28.41 Clinton
2020: 67.62 - 30.17 Biden (D +0.38)

The swings here are actually extremely surprising given the racial makeup of these towns. Gilroy seems to be one of the few Hispanic majority places nationwide that swung to Biden, with Morgan Hill and Campbell having larger swings despite a heavy nonwhite population. I'm not sure what exactly caused this sort of swing against Trump in these areas, but I have a feeling that Trump may not have improved in California farming communities given the general Democratic swing or flat trend in the Central Valley as well.

San Jose
This is the last group in the list and is only made up of San Jose, since the city makes up more than half of the entire county. San Jose is probably the least known city with over a million people nationally and has a very barren downtown with few skyscrapers thanks to the close-by airport, being more of a giant suburb than anything else. Nevertheless, it is the most diverse place in Santa Clara County, having a population that is 25% White, 30% Hispanic, and 35% Asian.

I've chosen to break down the city into its 10 city council districts so we get a better sense of where swings here happened.

District 1: West San Jose - 35% non-Hispanic White, 35% Asian, 20% Hispanic
2016: 71.70 - 21.91 Clinton
2020: 72.83 - 24.88 Biden (R +1.84)

District 2: Southeast San Jose - 30% non-Hispanic White, 25% Asian, 35% Hispanic
2016: 71.17 - 22.56 Clinton
2020: 69.72 - 28.05 Biden (R +6.94)

District 3: Downtown San Jose - 20% non-Hispanic White, 20% Asian, 50% Hispanic
2016: 81.68 - 11.78 Clinton
2020: 78.02 - 19.46 Biden (R +11.34) (!)

District 4: North San Jose - 15% non-Hispanic White, 60% Asian, 15% Hispanic
2016: 74.46 - 20.38 Clinton
2020: 68.55 - 29.70 Biden (R +15.23) (!!!)

District 5: East San Jose - 10% non-Hispanic White, 25% Asian, 60% Hispanic
2016: 81.61 - 14.08 Clinton
2020: 71.82 - 26.48 Biden (R +22.19) (!!!!!)

District 6: West-Central San Jose - 50% non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, 30% Hispanic
2016: 74.38 - 19.19 Clinton
2020: 76.87 - 20.69 Biden (D +0.99)

District 7: Central San Jose - 10% non-Hispanic White, 40% Asian, 50% Hispanic
2016: 78.30 - 17.34 Clinton
2020: 63.64 - 34.81 Biden (R +32.12) (!!!!!!!)

District 8: East San Jose - 15% non-Hispanic White, 55% Asian, 25% Hispanic
2016: 75.62 - 20.43 Clinton
2020: 68.58 - 29.99 Biden (R +16.60) (!!!)

District 9: Southwest San Jose - 60% non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, 20% Hispanic
2016: 68.54 - 24.70 Clinton
2020: 71.45 - 26.10 Biden (D +1.51)

District 10: South San Jose - 50% non-Hispanic White, 25% Asian, 20% Hispanic
2016: 67.28 - 26.84 Clinton
2020: 69.54 - 28.36 Biden (D +0.73)

San Jose
2016: 73.82 - 20.51 Clinton
2020: 71.10 - 26.85 Biden (R +9.06)

Districts 6, 9, and 10, also the only districts that were majority non-Hispanic White, swung to Biden, but all less than 3 points. District 1, the next most non-Hispanic White district swung to Trump by around 2 points, similar to the swing in nearby Cupertino. These districts are all affluent and educated, considered the nice areas of San Jose. District 2 swung to Trump by around 7 points, which was big but tempered since due to the relatively large non-Hispanic White presence. All other districts, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8, swung by at least 10 points to Trump, with District 7 having a shocking 30+ point swing. These districts were all either majority Asian or majority Hispanic and are for the most part less affluent than 1, 6, 9, and 10. Districts 2 and 8 do have some nicer areas by their hillsides, and District 4 has multiple tech business parks, but 3, 5, and 7 contain a large majority of the city's poverty. Every District has a large Asian population, but the specific nationality makes a difference. District 4 has a large Indian and Filipino population, while District 1 is more Indian and Chinese, while District 7, as seen by its swing, has a large portion of San Jose's famous Vietnamese population.

Overall, the swings here can be clearly seen if mapped out geographically, with 1, 6, 9, and 10 forming a continuous mass from the West to the South, while the other districts are all in the North and East.

Santa Clara County
2016: 73.39 - 20.77 Clinton
2020: 72.64 - 25.23 Biden (R +5.20)

The county shifted over 5 points to the right, countering most of the smaller swings in the Bay Area. Milpitas and Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 actually were responsible for the entire swing in the area, with the county swinging 0.01 points leftward without them, speaking to how big the urban Latino and Vietnamese swings ended up being. The swing here interestingly makes Santa Clara County the only one out of the 20 wealthiest counties nationwide to move rightward, and indicates a need for Democrats to keep in touch with their urban constituents as much as they try to focus on new ground.

[vileplume]

This took not too long but I got delayed since I wanted to break down San Jose by district to microanalyze all the swings given that it's basically an amalgamation of suburbs that range from Silicon Valley in the West to hills in the South and East.

Anyways, the swings in Santa Clara County were quite interesting. To paint a demographic picture, the county is 30% non-Hispanic White, 40% Asian, and 25% Latino with a population of around 2 million residents. It is also one of the wealthiest counties in the country with a median home values of $1 million and a median income of $125,000. I'll do a rundown based on city groupings and then breakdown San Jose in the end.

Group 1: Wealthy Silicon Valley Suburbs
In this group, we have Los Altos Hills, Monte Sereno, Los Altos, Saratoga, Palo Alto, and Los Gatos. These towns are where you'll find half of Silicon Valley's billionaire class, or at least the half that lives in Santa Clara County. Monte Sereno and Los Altos Hills are small, with both less than 10,000 strong, whereas Los Altos, Saratoga, and Los Gatos are all at around 30,000 people, and Palo Alto is close to 65,000. All these cities are mostly white, but every town except Los Gatos and Monte Sereno is at least 30% Asian, while Saratoga is majority Asian, and every town is less than 10% Hispanic.

Los Altos Hills
2016: 68.65 - 24.43 Clinton
2020: 73.27 - 24.15 Biden (D +4.90)

Monte Sereno
2016: 65.27 - 28.52 Clinton
2020: 67.44 - 30.76 Biden (R +0.06)

Los Altos
2016: 75.40 - 19.10 Clinton
2020: 79.74 - 18.25 Biden (D +5.19)

Saratoga
2016: 68.58 - 25.60 Clinton
2020: 71.99 - 25.87 Biden (D +3.14)

Palo Alto
2016: 82.47 - 12.20 Clinton
2020: 83.98 - 14.00 Biden (R +0.30)

Los Gatos
2016: 69.04 - 24.93 Clinton
2020: 72.03 - 25.58 Biden (D +2.34)

While conventional wisdom would suggest that Los Gatos or Monte Sereno should have the largest swing left or the smallest Trump swing due to their heavily White population, it turns out that Monte Sereno swung right and three far more diverse towns swung more than Los Gatos did to Biden. Palo Alto seems to also have had a Trump swing, which is a little more confusing since Stanford isn't included in the town's voting numbers, so the explanation is still out. Every town did have an increase in Democratic vote share, so Trump may just have rebounded with some Republicans.

Group 2: Affluent Urban-Suburban Tech Headquarters
In this group, we have Mountain View and Cupertino, home to Google and Apple respectively and both very desirable and slightly cheaper than the towns in the first group. Cupertino and Mountain View are larger towns, with populations of 60,000 and 80,000, and have more of an urban feel with a number of tech offices in both cities. Cupertino is around 70% Asian and 25% White while Mountain View is definitely more diverse at 45% White and 30% Asian, and it's the first town out of those mentioned with a larger Hispanic population at around 20%.

Cupertino
2016: 74.66 - 20.14 Clinton
2020: 75.00 - 22.90 Biden (R +2.43)

Mountain View
2016: 80.41 - 13.31 Clinton
2020: 82.47 - 15.26 Biden (D +0.11)

Cupertino shows the first clear swing to Trump out of any town, but it is still relatively small given its demographics, while Mountain View still swung Democratic despite having a larger Hispanic population. I'm beginning to think these towns have people with lives generally fine in a fiscal sense so things like Prop 16 can sour voter perspective on Democrats, and I honestly think it's partially to blame for some of the swing in Cupertino. Regardless, Biden increased the Democratic vote share in both towns.

Group 3: Middle Class Asian Meccas
In this group, we have Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, and Milpitas. The cities in this group are even larger than the ones in the last group, with Sunnyvale at around 120,000 residents and Santa Clara at 115,000, while Milpitas has 85,000. These towns are all locally known as being Asian hubs, often where immigrants first flock to when they land in the valley. Unlike Cupertino, they are more diverse, with Santa Clara and Sunnyvale around 45% Asian and 30% White with 20% of the population Hispanic, while Milpitas is 70% Asian, and actually more Hispanic than White, with 15% of the population being Hispanic, while 10% are White.

Sunnyvale
2016: 75.22 - 18.50 Clinton
2020: 76.66 - 20.93 Biden (R +0.99)

Santa Clara
2016: 73.22 - 20.44 Clinton
2020: 74.38 - 23.55 Biden (R +1.94)

Milpitas
2016: 73.48 - 21.31 Clinton
2020: 67.93 - 30.45 Biden (R +14.69) (!!!)

Sunnyvale and Santa Clara look normal and their small swings are actually surprising given their demographics, but Milpitas is the first town where there is a clear and heavy Trump swing. Almost all of this can be attributed to the demographic makeup. The Asian population in Milpitas has a heavy Filipino and Vietnamese contingent that is not really present in any of the cities in the first two groups, which are far more Chinese and Indian. Milpitas is also far less educated than any other city mentioned, also pointing to a Trump swing. Nevertheless, such a drastic swing is pretty stunning to see, but as you'll see later on there are larger ones yet to come.

Group 4: Farming Towns and Campbell
In this group, we have Campbell, Morgan Hill, and Gilroy. While the latter two are farming communities practically unconnected to the rest of the county and barely even part of the Bay Area, they are still relatively well off towns with incomes over $100k. Campbell on the other hand is not Asian enough, not techy enough, and not wealthy enough to fit in any of the first three groups, but is more like a part of San Jose than a town with its own identity. These towns are all similar in size, with Campbell and Morgan Hill at around 40,000 residents with Gilroy at 60,000. Gilroy is 60% Hispanic and 30% White, while Morgan Hill is around 50% White and 30% Hispanic, with Campbell at 50% White, 20% Asian, and 20% Hispanic.

Campbell
2016: 70.84 - 22.49 Clinton
2020: 73.65 - 23.89 Biden (D +1.41)

Morgan Hill
2016: 60.49 - 32.54 Clinton
2020: 64.40 - 32.95 Biden (D +3.51)

Gilroy
2016: 65.48 - 28.41 Clinton
2020: 67.62 - 30.17 Biden (D +0.38)

The swings here are actually extremely surprising given the racial makeup of these towns. Gilroy seems to be one of the few Hispanic majority places nationwide that swung to Biden, with Morgan Hill and Campbell having larger swings despite a heavy nonwhite population. I'm not sure what exactly caused this sort of swing against Trump in these areas, but I have a feeling that Trump may not have improved in California farming communities given the general Democratic swing or flat trend in the Central Valley as well.

San Jose
This is the last group in the list and is only made up of San Jose, since the city makes up more than half of the entire county. San Jose is probably the least known city with over a million people nationally and has a very barren downtown with few skyscrapers thanks to the close-by airport, being more of a giant suburb than anything else. Nevertheless, it is the most diverse place in Santa Clara County, having a population that is 25% White, 30% Hispanic, and 35% Asian.

I've chosen to break down the city into its 10 city council districts so we get a better sense of where swings here happened.

District 1: West San Jose - 35% non-Hispanic White, 35% Asian, 20% Hispanic
2016: 71.70 - 21.91 Clinton
2020: 72.83 - 24.88 Biden (R +1.84)

District 2: Southeast San Jose - 30% non-Hispanic White, 25% Asian, 35% Hispanic
2016: 71.17 - 22.56 Clinton
2020: 69.72 - 28.05 Biden (R +6.94)

District 3: Downtown San Jose - 20% non-Hispanic White, 20% Asian, 50% Hispanic
2016: 81.68 - 11.78 Clinton
2020: 78.02 - 19.46 Biden (R +11.34) (!)

District 4: North San Jose - 15% non-Hispanic White, 60% Asian, 15% Hispanic
2016: 74.46 - 20.38 Clinton
2020: 68.55 - 29.70 Biden (R +15.23) (!!!)

District 5: East San Jose - 10% non-Hispanic White, 25% Asian, 60% Hispanic
2016: 81.61 - 14.08 Clinton
2020: 71.82 - 26.48 Biden (R +22.19) (!!!!!)

District 6: West-Central San Jose - 50% non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, 30% Hispanic
2016: 74.38 - 19.19 Clinton
2020: 76.87 - 20.69 Biden (D +0.99)

District 7: Central San Jose - 10% non-Hispanic White, 40% Asian, 50% Hispanic
2016: 78.30 - 17.34 Clinton
2020: 63.64 - 34.81 Biden (R +32.12) (!!!!!!!)

District 8: East San Jose - 15% non-Hispanic White, 55% Asian, 25% Hispanic
2016: 75.62 - 20.43 Clinton
2020: 68.58 - 29.99 Biden (R +16.60) (!!!)

District 9: Southwest San Jose - 60% non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, 20% Hispanic
2016: 68.54 - 24.70 Clinton
2020: 71.45 - 26.10 Biden (D +1.51)

District 10: South San Jose - 50% non-Hispanic White, 25% Asian, 20% Hispanic
2016: 67.28 - 26.84 Clinton
2020: 69.54 - 28.36 Biden (D +0.73)

San Jose
2016: 73.82 - 20.51 Clinton
2020: 71.10 - 26.85 Biden (R +9.06)

Districts 6, 9, and 10, also the only districts that were majority non-Hispanic White, swung to Biden, but all less than 3 points. District 1, the next most non-Hispanic White district swung to Trump by around 2 points, similar to the swing in nearby Cupertino. These districts are all affluent and educated, considered the nice areas of San Jose. District 2 swung to Trump by around 7 points, which was big but tempered since due to the relatively large non-Hispanic White presence. All other districts, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8, swung by at least 10 points to Trump, with District 7 having a shocking 30+ point swing. These districts were all either majority Asian or majority Hispanic and are for the most part less affluent than 1, 6, 9, and 10. Districts 2 and 8 do have some nicer areas by their hillsides, and District 4 has multiple tech business parks, but 3, 5, and 7 contain a large majority of the city's poverty. Every District has a large Asian population, but the specific nationality makes a difference. District 4 has a large Indian and Filipino population, while District 1 is more Indian and Chinese, while District 7, as seen by its swing, has a large portion of San Jose's famous Vietnamese population.

Overall, the swings here can be clearly seen if mapped out geographically, with 1, 6, 9, and 10 forming a continuous mass from the West to the South, while the other districts are all in the North and East.

Santa Clara County
2016: 73.39 - 20.77 Clinton
2020: 72.64 - 25.23 Biden (R +5.20)

The county shifted over 5 points to the right, countering most of the smaller swings in the Bay Area. Milpitas and Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 actually were responsible for the entire swing in the area, with the county swinging 0.01 points leftward without them, speaking to how big the urban Latino and Vietnamese swings ended up being. The swing here interestingly makes Santa Clara County the only one out of the 20 wealthiest counties nationwide to move rightward, and indicates a need for Democrats to keep in touch with their urban constituents as much as they try to focus on new ground.

Thanks for this. Very interesting data!

It's pretty funny that the Central San Jose council district was the most Republican in the city and indeed also more Republican than any municipality in the county...

[Kamala's side hoe]

Milpitas
2016: 73.48 - 21.31 Clinton
2020: 67.93 - 30.45 Biden (R +14.69) (!!!)

Sunnyvale and Santa Clara look normal and their small swings are actually surprising given their demographics, but Milpitas is the first town where there is a clear and heavy Trump swing. Almost all of this can be attributed to the demographic makeup. The Asian population in Milpitas has a heavy Filipino and Vietnamese contingent that is not really present in any of the cities in the first two groups, which are far more Chinese and Indian. Milpitas is also far less educated than any other city mentioned, also pointing to a Trump swing. Nevertheless, such a drastic swing is pretty stunning to see, but as you'll see later on there are larger ones yet to come.

The Milpitas swing can’t be just from Vietnamese or Filipinos- neither group makes up more than 15-18% of the population there.

San Jose
2016: 73.82 - 20.51 Clinton
2020: 71.10 - 26.85 Biden (R +9.06)

Districts 6, 9, and 10, also the only districts that were majority non-Hispanic White, swung to Biden, but all less than 3 points. District 1, the next most non-Hispanic White district swung to Trump by around 2 points, similar to the swing in nearby Cupertino. These districts are all affluent and educated, considered the nice areas of San Jose. District 2 swung to Trump by around 7 points, which was big but tempered since due to the relatively large non-Hispanic White presence. All other districts, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8, swung by at least 10 points to Trump, with District 7 having a shocking 30+ point swing. These districts were all either majority Asian or majority Hispanic and are for the most part less affluent than 1, 6, 9, and 10. Districts 2 and 8 do have some nicer areas by their hillsides, and District 4 has multiple tech business parks, but 3, 5, and 7 contain a large majority of the city's poverty. Every District has a large Asian population, but the specific nationality makes a difference. District 4 has a large Indian and Filipino population, while District 1 is more Indian and Chinese, while District 7, as seen by its swing, has a large portion of San Jose's famous Vietnamese population.

Overall, the swings here can be clearly seen if mapped out geographically, with 1, 6, 9, and 10 forming a continuous mass from the West to the South, while the other districts are all in the North and East.

Santa Clara County
2016: 73.39 - 20.77 Clinton
2020: 72.64 - 25.23 Biden (R +5.20)

The county shifted over 5 points to the right, countering most of the smaller swings in the Bay Area. Milpitas and Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 actually were responsible for the entire swing in the area, with the county swinging 0.01 points leftward without them, speaking to how big the urban Latino and Vietnamese swings ended up being. The swing here interestingly makes Santa Clara County the only one out of the 20 wealthiest counties nationwide to move rightward, and indicates a need for Democrats to keep in touch with their urban constituents as much as they try to focus on new ground.

Yeah let’s hope the Vietnamese and urban Latino swings were a one-time thing. I wonder which group was responsible for more of the swing? And I wonder what the ethnic breakdown of the Asian population in Districts 2, 3, 5, and 8 is...

[HAnnA MArin County]

I've crunched most of the numbers for the cities in Alameda County. I have yet to crunch Fremont, Hayward, and Oakland (I plan to do this tonight at work, assuming it's a slow night, so stay tuned) and I cannot find the results for Emeryville, but here's what I have for the rest of the county (again, write-ins included in both 2016 and 2020).

ALAMEDA COUNTY
Alameda
2016: Clinton 79.43% — Trump 13.27% = D+ 66.16
2020: Biden 82.91% — Trump 14.99% = D+ 67.92
SWING: D+ 01.76

Albany
2016: Clinton 86.47% — Trump 6.24% = D+ 80.23
2020: Biden 90.49% — Trump 7.59% = D+ 82.90
SWING: D+ 02.67

Berkeley
2016: Clinton 89.09% — Trump 3.13% = D+ 85.96*
2020: Biden 93.73% — Trump 3.99% = D+ 89.74
SWING: D+ 03.78
_{*Jill Stein finished with 4.55% in second place ahead of Trump ("Sad!"), but used the D-R margin to keep the swings intact}

Dublin
2016: Clinton 67.82% — Trump 24.12% = D+ 43.70
2020: Biden 72.84% — Trump 25.31% = D+ 47.53
SWING: D+ 03.83

Emeryville
2016: Clinton 86.97% — Trump 5.89% = D+ 81.08
2020: TBD
SWING: TBD

Fremont
2016: Clinton 72.00% — Trump 21.08% = D+ 50.92
2020: TBD
SWING: TBD

Hayward
2016: Clinton 78.40% — Trump 15.05% = D+ 63.35
2020: TBD
SWING: TBD

Livermore
2016: Clinton 55.73% — Trump 34.31% = D+ 21.42
2020: Biden 62.33% — Trump 35.18% = D+ 27.15
SWING: D+ 05.73

Newark
2016: Clinton 72.38% — Trump 20.59% = D+ 51.79
2020: Biden 73.41% — Trump 24.79% = D+ 48.62
SWING: R+ 03.17

Oakland
2016: Clinton 88.03% — Trump 4.69% = D+ 83.34
2020: TBD
SWING: TBD

Piedmont
2016: Clinton 82.29% — Trump 11.26% = D+ 71.03
2020: Biden 87.69% — Trump 10.61% = D+ 77.08
SWING: D+ 06.05

Pleasanton
2016: Clinton 61.75% — Trump 29.71% = D+ 32.04
2020: Biden 68.44% — Trump 29.29% = D+ 39.15
SWING: D+ 07.11

San Leandro
2016: Clinton 77.25% — Trump 16.19% = D+ 61.06
2020: Biden 77.14% — Trump 20.88% = D+ 56.26
SWING: R+ 04.80

Union City
2016: Clinton 77.94% — Trump 16.57% = D+ 61.37
2020: Biden 75.35% — Trump 22.96% = D+ 52.39
SWING: R+ 08.98