Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well I officially have to apologize for all the s*** I've talked about Florida over the years. You're alright, Florida. Keep it up for 2020 and stay weird.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So, what do we call it if Democrats pick up 40 seats in the House but lose 5 seats in the Senate?

An example of how polarized our country truly is. I've always been antsy about the Democrats' chances in the Senate but now it looks like my worries weren't so premature after all. Where's my Xanax...?

[Progressive Pessimist]

CNN exit polls have
MO Sen: McCaskill +2
NJ Sen: Menendez +16

Hahaha "tossup New Jersey!" As for that Missouri number, my mind will be blown if McCaskill somehow wins while Donnelly doesn't.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm signing off. I haven't said much in this thread overall, but I'm just exhausted. Even though this hasn't been the worst election ever, it is clear that this country is polarized beyond the point of repair and rationality. I can't really find it in me to enjoy the several surprise victories that the Democrats have had. I will say that perhaps the one most most worth celebrating, that made the happiest was seeing Laura Kelly win in Kansas. We'll never have to deal with Kobach again...hopefully.

But I just wanted an overall clear win. Sure, I expected some losses here and there, I always thought DeWine would win-so we aren't getting President or Vice President Sherrod Brown (has DeWine finally held every elected office in Ohio?). But my malaise is mostly due to the Senate results, some Gubernatorial results, and f***ing Florida in general of course. I tried to have reasonable expectations and simultaneously those expectations were too bullish with my Senate and Gubernatorial predictions and too bearish with my House predictions, at the same time. I thought the Democrats would lose Senate seats in Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota but I can't believe that we're going to see an even bigger drubbing. I wouldn't be surprised if Heller and McSally win at this point. Yet I also can't believe that the Democrats won an Oklahoma House race. I'm feeling very conflicted and confused overall. I think I need to take a break from politics, in spite of how ubiquitous it is, for the sake of my mental health. I'm having minor 2016 flashbacks. This election is like learning that a beloved family member has cancer, but when that family member succumbs to it, you will inherit property in their will. That's a bit dark...but so is this country's political landscape. American voters didn't learn after 2010, 2014, and 2016, and most likely they aren't going to learn now either.

I am actually even more worried for the future as we're seeing that Trumpism is here to stay as those are the Republicans that have survived much like in 2016. Even if it won't be noticeable in every corner of this "great" country the GOP is destined to remain an ethno-nationalist, white grievance, fear-based party. Even with this new Democratic House there is a negative caveat. They will most likely become an effective scapegoat for the President and his all-powerful cabal. I am actually more secure in predicting that he gets re-elected than I was prior if this election is any indication, even with its silver linings.

I don't know...somehow things make even less sense than they did on November 8, 2016. I said back then that I would never trust a poll ever again, and clearly that self-imposed advice didn't stick. 

I am bracing myself for the inevitable Trump-GOP gloating over our inflated expectations, once more, even though they didn't have a particularly great night either.  It's going to be intolerable. They're allowed to have mixed results and spin them as a win, but we can't. Watching CNN tonight was like listening to a demotivational audiotape. They declared the blue wave dead because Amy McGrath lost. That was one hell of a way to confirm my suspicions about how the media is going to help set the narrative about tonight's results. So I guess what we're seeing at best has been a blue splash. Yay?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Final thoughts before going to bed.  I wrote this in the Election Day tips thread:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's a mixed result, a split decision, which in general is in line with my expectations.  But I'm definitely in the first category above, not the second; my side achieved the single most important goal, flipping the House.  Not achieving this would have been a disaster.  Certainly there are some results I'm disappointed in, especially here in Georgia (although there are bright spots, like GA-07).  But on the whole I feel the wins outweigh the losses, and I'll sleep well tonight -- something that didn't happen in 2016.

Good night, everyone.

I envy you.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well I officially have to apologize for all the s*** I've talked about Florida over the years. You're alright, Florida. Keep it up for 2020 and stay weird.

RT

I was actually looking for that post so I could quote it and take it back in its entirety. Thanks for finding it. I deserve to be mocked for it. It's possible that I jinxed the race by writing this. Florida sucks. It will always suck. It's awful to the point that I hate it more than I ever have previously-that's a lot of hate right there.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Democrats manage to take the Arizona senate seat and all of the outstanding California congressional districts...then I would say they had a very good midterm overall.  It certainly wasn't perfect and I probably wouldn't even call it a wave, but I would still be happy with the results.

I would definitely feel better. I would consider it a splash or a ripple. But even if I end up feeling that way, remembering Florida will happen and make me feel s****y again. That is, unless Nelson pulls off a miracle. As for the Governor's race, f*** Andrew Gillum. I don't think I even want him to be Governor anymore. It's not like I have to live in Florida. They deserve to live with another one of their mistakes for the next four years. Scott winning though, does affect me and the rest of the country, and it is driving me bonkers! It's like Scott is casting a cruciatus curse on me!

Dems only losing a seat or two in an extremely stacked Senate map, gaining 35-40 seats in an extremely gerrymandered House map, and gaining 7 governors is not a "ripple", lol. It's a wave.

My condition is basically Florida senate to be called a wave. Ik its a small margin but there is no reason a swing state senator should have lost in a wave.

That's basically my caveat too. And I know I'm pissing people off with my negativity, but it's always been there. It's in my username.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm comforted to see that we may pickup Arizona after all. I have my fingers crossed. If Sinema can win and Nelson can somehow maintain his seat by some miracle, I intend to apologize to the forum for my sourpuss antics as of late because this midterm will have turned out to be a strong net positive after all. I'll feel vindicated for reasons beyond Senate control too, because this result would resemble my exact Senate prediction for the 2018 Senate.

I'm not going to apologize to Florida though. It may end up not being synonymous with doom anymore, if this happens, but the fact that Nelson may overcome a loss of a few thousand votes due to a recount kind of has negative ramifications too. This would mean that if a recount had been allowed in 2000, we most likely would have had President Gore and this country, as well as the world, probably would have been better off being spared eight years of the Bush administration! Earth 2 can probably attest to this. That kind of upsets me. Something so simple could have prevented the future that we are currently living in today. Florida needs to stop doing this to itself, its voters, and the country at large. Stop "monkeying" things up. Get your s*** together in regards to how you handle your elections! Maybe those ex-felons will make the difference.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can someone explain why the networks haven't called NY-22 for Brindisi yet?

Probably going to go to a recount after there was a tabulation error.

So it's okay when a Republican like Tenney does it, but Nelson doing the same thing in a state where this happens all too often is theft? That's Republican logic for you.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020.

The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump.

That's why she lost.

True. And to make matters worse it came off as phony like with Ed Gillespie. It just goes to show that embracing Trump only sometimes works, depending on your state. That same development would also explain Dean Heller's defeat.