BC Election on October 24th

[King of Kensington]

The new map/sorting was evident in 2013, when Christy Clark went populist and lost her own Point Grey seat (and fairly similar Fairview also flipped from Liberal to NDP).

[DL]

People will say things like “if Biden were in Canada he would be a Tory” and/or Erin O’Toole would be a liberal Democrat if he were American..,but it’s very flawed to try to simply superimpose party programs on other countries. People like Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are very much from the progressive “culture” in the US. Biden praises unions to no end and he first ran for the senate in 1972 because he opposed the Vietnam war. It’s hard to imagine someone with those values ending up in the Socred/BC Liberal stream of je had been born in BC

[Benjamin Frank]

Sure there are informal alliances between the NDP and various municipal parties and groupings but again it’s informal. I’m pretty sure that if I live in Burnaby and I join the NDP I don’t automatically become a member of the BCA and I’m also 100% certain that if I pay the BC NDP $20 a year to be a member not one penny of that goes to the BCA. The BC Liberals are also linked to the NPA in Vancouver but that is the least of their problems! And every party has issues with party members being more radical than the politicians especially when in government and there are always tensions between the federal and provincial party. You know if I lived in Alberta and joined the NDP to support Rachel Notley, I’m also automatically a member of the federal NDP which opposes pipelines! But people just have to agree to disagree with others in their party sometimes!

PS: the current mayor of Burnaby ran against the supposedly “NDP affiliated BCA” mayor and won. But the current mayor is also an NDP supporter! And the mayor of Vancouver Kennedy Stewart was an NDP MP but ran as a non-partisan independent and won

No, you're just wrong.  If you join the NDP provincially, you automatically become a member of both the federal NDP and any municipal NDP organization including the BCA or the RCA.

There are a number of historical New Democrats who were given a special exception, like health minister Laurent Desjardins in Manitoba who was a federal Liberal, but otherwise, if you are a member of one, you are a member of all.

Since the mayor of Burnaby ran against the NDP affiliated mayor, he must have been a supporter of the NDP but not a member.

In regards to Alberta, yes, this is why provincial New Democrats have discussed breaking away from the federal party.  That would be something of a mess because the Federal NDP would be obligated, based on its constitution which describes the NDP as a 'movement' and not just a political party, to start up a new Alberta provincial wing.

https://ipolitics.ca/2016/04/11/no-alberta-split-from-the-federal-ndp-notley/

Only in Quebec, I believe, is the Provincial NDP, such as it is, not affiliated with the Federal NDP.

I don't know how the donations work specifically.  When members join the party or donate, they can direct which organization the money goes to, but for those who don't state any preference, I don't know how it's divided.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How about you all wait until you see what the election results actually look like before discussing 'the map'?

[adma]

Vancouver Quilchena is to Vancouver what River Heights is to Winnipeg. As long as the BC Liberals are led by a stuffy patrician like Wilkinson who has a big L federal Liberal pedigree they will win there. But if after Wilkinson the BC Liberals pick a new leader who is a rightwing conservative populist... they could lose places like Quilchena too

They could lose; but not necessarily to the NDP--that is, whatever their straits, the BC Liberals are still a "big tent" party; but if rightwing conservative populism leads to a schism, or perhaps a rebranding as "BC Party" in order to cleanse associations with the federal Liberals, I can see Quilchena opting for a Lib Dem-style "middle option" (perhaps led by Wilkinson?) should something like that exist by that point.  More so than the NDP or Green.

Quilchena's like Don Valley West without the Thorncliffe element.

[DL]

Back in the olden days when BC was NDP vs Socreds there was a small BC Liberal party that would win a few very wealthy seats in Vancouver and their raison d’être was to be a party for “I’m too smart to vote Socred and I’m too rich to vote NDP” types

[DL]

New poll by Léger (Oct. 6-9)

NDP - 50% (up 3 points)
Liberals - 35% (up 4 points)
Greens - 12% (flat)
Conservatives - 2% (down 7)

So the only real change from Légers earlier poll is the evaporation of the BC Conservative vote but it basically splits between NDP and Liberals.

https://leger360.com/voting-intentions/provincial-politics-british-columbia-october-13-2020/

[Hatman 🍁]

Sure there are informal alliances between the NDP and various municipal parties and groupings but again it’s informal. I’m pretty sure that if I live in Burnaby and I join the NDP I don’t automatically become a member of the BCA and I’m also 100% certain that if I pay the BC NDP $20 a year to be a member not one penny of that goes to the BCA. The BC Liberals are also linked to the NPA in Vancouver but that is the least of their problems! And every party has issues with party members being more radical than the politicians especially when in government and there are always tensions between the federal and provincial party. You know if I lived in Alberta and joined the NDP to support Rachel Notley, I’m also automatically a member of the federal NDP which opposes pipelines! But people just have to agree to disagree with others in their party sometimes!

PS: the current mayor of Burnaby ran against the supposedly “NDP affiliated BCA” mayor and won. But the current mayor is also an NDP supporter! And the mayor of Vancouver Kennedy Stewart was an NDP MP but ran as a non-partisan independent and won

No, you're just wrong.  If you join the NDP provincially, you automatically become a member of both the federal NDP and any municipal NDP organization including the BCA or the RCA.

{{citationneeded}}

I have never heard of such a thing. Not saying you're wrong, but the notion seems preposterous, so I'm going to need some sources.

[DL]

I did some research. It costs $40 to be a member of the Burnaby Citizens Association (double what it costs to be a member of the BC NDP). If you want to be a member you have to check off a box that says you are a member of the NDP...so clearly you have to be an NDP member to join the BCA - but you do have to join - it is not automatic. In other words all BCA members are also NDP members but not all NDP members in Burnaby are BCA members - you have to join and pay a membership fee  

[DL]

New poll by Léger (Oct. 6-9)

NDP - 50% (up 3 points)
Liberals - 35% (up 4 points)
Greens - 12% (flat)
Conservatives - 2% (down 7)

So the only real change from Légers earlier poll is the evaporation of the BC Conservative vote but it basically splits between NDP and Liberals.

https://leger360.com/voting-intentions/provincial-politics-british-columbia-october-13-2020/

Similar numbers this morning from Ipsos

BC NDP - 52%
BC Libs - 34%
Greens - 11%

[Hatman 🍁]

I did some research. It costs $40 to be a member of the Burnaby Citizens Association (double what it costs to be a member of the BC NDP). If you want to be a member you have to check off a box that says you are a member of the NDP...so clearly you have to be an NDP member to join the BCA - but you do have to join - it is not automatic. In other words all BCA members are also NDP members but not all NDP members in Burnaby are BCA members - you have to join and pay a membership fee  

Wow! I am legitimately shocked that the NDP is that formally tied to a municipal party, a successful one at that. I suppose it helps that the BCA doesn't have "NDP" in the name. This is true for the RCA as well? Are there any other parties like that?

[lilTommy]

New poll by Léger (Oct. 6-9)

NDP - 50% (up 3 points)
Liberals - 35% (up 4 points)
Greens - 12% (flat)
Conservatives - 2% (down 7)

So the only real change from Légers earlier poll is the evaporation of the BC Conservative vote but it basically splits between NDP and Liberals.

https://leger360.com/voting-intentions/provincial-politics-british-columbia-october-13-2020/

Similar numbers this morning from Ipsos

BC NDP - 52%
BC Libs - 34%
Greens - 11%

The other thing of note is the slowly slipping BCGreen vote. Here it is showing in the two polls at 12/11%, in 2017 that provincial vote was 16.8%

[brucejoel99]

If the election is a huge blow-out like these polls suggest, then who are the natural options for the Liberals to be their next leader? Because if results end up looking like this, then I have to imagine those who would otherwise be potential contenders would be out of a job.

[DL]

If these numbers hold the Greens would face a strong likelihood of being reduced to one seat or maybe being wiped out altogether - and the BC Liberals would fall to well under 30 seats. The danger for the BC Liberals is even keeping that party together. They are a fractious big tent party that tries to keep federal Tories and rightwing Liberals together in one camp - in most other provinces these people are mortal enemies. I suspect that if the BC Liberals lost badly a lot of rightwing populist small "c" conservatives who have held their noses and voted for federal Liberal-types like Gordon Campbell, Christy Clark and now Wilkinson - will decide that "enough is enough" and may want to turn the BC Conservatives into a viable force...

[Benjamin Frank]

I did some research. It costs $40 to be a member of the Burnaby Citizens Association (double what it costs to be a member of the BC NDP). If you want to be a member you have to check off a box that says you are a member of the NDP...so clearly you have to be an NDP member to join the BCA - but you do have to join - it is not automatic. In other words all BCA members are also NDP members but not all NDP members in Burnaby are BCA members - you have to join and pay a membership fee  

Wow! I am legitimately shocked that the NDP is that formally tied to a municipal party, a successful one at that. I suppose it helps that the BCA doesn't have "NDP" in the name. This is true for the RCA as well? Are there any other parties like that?

The Richmond Citizens Association used to be called the Richmond Civic New Democrats.  I believe in the 1980s when David Levi (the son of NDP Dave Barrett era cabinet minister Norm Levi) tried to start a municipally affiliated NDP civic party in Vancouver they may have been called the Civic New Democratic Party, but I don't remember for certain.

I knew what I posted on the affiliation of the civic New Democrats in at least Richmond and Burnaby was true for two reasons:

1.I know about a former New Democratic provincial candidate in Richmond who wanted to run for the school board with some other civic party and was told by the local NDP "you can't run for them, we're looking at running candidates for school board.  If you want to run, you'll have to run with us."

2.The way the Richmond New Democrats manage this membership requirement for candidates who want to align municipally but don't want to be members of the NDP (I think align especially with long time city councilor Harold Steves) is they have a non-coalition coalition with a party called the Richmond Independent Team of Electors (RITE.)  In the 2018 election the RCA ran four candidates for city council as did RITE.  Two RCA members were elected: Harold Steves, and Kelly Greene who is running for the NDP again provincially, and two RITE members were elected: Carol Day who ran for the B.C Conservatives provincially in 2013, and Michael Wolfe who ran for the Green Party several times.

In Burnaby this isn't a problem, since the BCA dominates municipally as they have done since 1987.

[Benjamin Frank]

If the election is a huge blow-out like these polls suggest, then who are the natural options for the Liberals to be their next leader? Because if results end up looking like this, then I have to imagine those who would otherwise be potential contenders would be out of a job.

The likeliest contender I'd have to think is Jas Johal who has made a handful of stupid or odd comments (but, who hasn't?) but has emerged as the party's spokesperson on most issues.  In many ways, during the legislative sessions, he had a higher profile than Andrew Wilkinson.  Johal was a longtime investigative journalist first for radio station CKNW and then for BCTV News (which gets insanely high viewership)  Before getting elected to the legislature, he was in public relations for, I believe, the natural gas industry association.

However, Johal represents Richmond-Queensborough and is likely to lose his seat if these polls are accurate.  

Michael Lee, who like Johal was first elected in 2017, ran for the B.C Liberal leadership and nearly won, but has been regarded as something of a disappointment as Attorney General critic.  He represents Vancouver-Langara and is also likely to lose.

Ellis Ross, the high profile Indigenous B.C Liberal and big supporter of resource development represents Skeena also since 2017 which has been a mostly NDP held riding.  Again, he would also likely lose his riding.  Ross, in my opinion, would have significant problems were he to run for leader.  He is both something of a global warming denier and he has obvious authoritarian views.

Shirley Bond, an MLA for the Prince George area since 2001 was a generally well regarded senior cabinet minister under Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark and could finally run for the leadership, but I think she'd be more likely to be the interim leader.

In my opinion this would leave:
1.Todd Stone, an MLA for Kamloops and former cabinet minister.  He was behind the 'triple delete scandal' but ran pretty well for the leadership.

2.Mike de Jong.  A longtime MLA for Abbotsford (since 1994) and former cabinet minister.  He's run the last two times for leader doing much better the second time around.  He was a generally capable minister and has a likeable sense of humor, but he's also associated with many scandals and controversies.

3.Mike Bernier.  An MLA for the Peace River.  He was a generally highly regarded Education Minister under Christy Clark.  Apparently he is a member or supporter of the federal Conservative Party, but he seems to be well regarded by all factions.  He ran briefly for the leadership last time around, but dropped out and endorsed Mike de Jong.

4.John Rustad.  An MLA in the Prince George area.  He was the Indigenous Relations minister under Christy Clark and kept a low profile, but seemed to be generally respected.  However, after he was reelected in 2017 he was named Forests minister in that very brief Christy Clark government and gained a great deal of respect for the way he handled the large forest fire situation in 2017.  I don't know how much that is remembered though.

5.Norm Letnick.  An MLA for Kelowna.  He was the Agriculture minister under Christy Clark.  He got into a battle with minister Bill Bennet (the bullying former cabinet minister from the Kootenays, not the bullying former premier from Kelowna) over the Agriculture Land Reserve and Agricultural Land Commission.  Bennet wanted to reduce the scope of the ALR while Letnick wanted to maintain it.  Letnick as health critic has also praised NDP Health Minister Adrian Dix.  I don't know the impact these actions would have on any leadership ambitions he might have.

6.Peter Milobar. An MLA for Kamloops.  He was first elected in 2017 but was the longest serving mayor of Kamloops (2008-2017) before that.


Outside of the caucus and given this somewhat motley and low-profile collection, I suspect there would once again be a great deal of pressure on former Harper Industry Minister and 'Red Tory' James Moore to run.  

Edited: Removed Laurie Throness and Teresa Watt.   Just saw that Teresa Watt is 71 years old.

[Continential]

What do you think will be the future of the Greens as they will probably go back to Pre-2017 margins after the election?

[King of Kensington]

New poll by Léger (Oct. 6-9)

NDP - 50% (up 3 points)
Liberals - 35% (up 4 points)
Greens - 12% (flat)
Conservatives - 2% (down 7)

So the only real change from Légers earlier poll is the evaporation of the BC Conservative vote but it basically splits between NDP and Liberals.

https://leger360.com/voting-intentions/provincial-politics-british-columbia-october-13-2020/

Similar numbers this morning from Ipsos

BC NDP - 52%
BC Libs - 34%
Greens - 11%

It's interesting to note that the BC NDP basically matches the LPC + NDP combined vote share in the last federal election (and BC Liberals with the Tories).

[Benjamin Frank]

What do you think will be the future of the Greens as they will probably go back to Pre-2017 margins after the election?

I don't know.  The NDP are targeting all 3 Green ridings.  I think a good deal for the Greens could depend on tonight's debate as it's the best opportunity for Sonja Furstenau to raise her profile.

The NDP is targeting the riding of former Green leader Andrew Wilkinson (Oak Bay-Gordon Head) with high profile highly respected former NDP M.P Murray Rankin.  The Greens are running Nicole Duncan, a Greater Victoria school trustee first elected in 2018.

The NDP are also targeting both of the other ridings with 2 area city councilors, Zeb King in the Saanich North and the Islands riding and Rob Douglas in Furstenau's Cowichan Valley riding.

Both of these ridings were held by the NDP up to 2017 but the Saanich North riding is hardly a traditional NDP riding.  It was said that it used to be where a lot of right wingers from Alberta retired to, but they've now apparently relocated further up north Vancouver Island to the Parksville-Qualicum riding.  So, Saanich North and the Islands is now apparently the retirement area for a lot of wealthier environmentalists.  In the 2013 election that riding was a very close 3 way race, while in 2017, the Green Party won it by over 10%. I'd expect Adam Olsen who ran both in 2013 and 2017 for the Greens to be reelected.

The Cowichan Valley riding of Furstenau's is much more historic NDP territory, but she is apparently well regarded as a constituency MLA, even though she's now the party leader, and I'd expect her to also be reelected.  She first got active in Green Party politics as a local environmental activist, so she had a fairly high profile in at least part of the riding before she first got elected there.


I forget specifically on what environmental issue Furstenau first emerged in her riding, I think it's a toxic waste dump or something.  She will likely be further helped because the NDP did not change the Liberal government's previous policy on this. The NDP say that the government scientists took a look and recommended maintaining the existing policy and that the government has no authority to overrule the civil service on this (i.e think of the SNC Lavalin situation) but, I don't know that the riding's constituents care about those sort of legalities.

[mileslunn]

BC Liberals release full platform.  While nothing controversial and some good ideas, reality is leader is salesperson and when you have a very unlikeable leader, it doesn't matter how attractive platform is, people won't even read it.  You need someone who will make people interested and Wilkinson has failed at that.

[mileslunn]

Debate tonight and here are thoughts:

John Horgan: Did alright but really he won just by not losing.  He has a big enough lead that all he to avoid was doing anything stupid which he did.

Andrew Wilkinson: Performed alright, but he needed a knockout punch, something similar in scale to Mulroney's you had an option sir in 1984 and that did not happen so any fleeting chance he had at winning is probably gone.

Sonia Furstenau: Probably had the best performance and might have just saved her seat.  But at end of day at best might help Greens rebound a bit, but unlikely to win them anything they didn't win last time.

[Hatman 🍁]

 He has a big enough lead that all he to avoid was doing anything stupid which he did.

Apparently he did, by saying he doesn't see colour? I mean, that's not going to lose votes to the Liberals, but could lose votes to the Greens. Though, I don't think that many people care about that kind of SJW stuff anyways. I mean, the black face thing didn't hurt Trudeau that much, and that was say worse.

[lilTommy]

 He has a big enough lead that all he to avoid was doing anything stupid which he did.

Apparently he did, by saying he doesn't see colour? I mean, that's not going to lose votes to the Liberals, but could lose votes to the Greens. Though, I don't think that many people care about that kind of SJW stuff anyways. I mean, the black face thing didn't hurt Trudeau that much, and that was say worse.

And promptly after the debate apologized or tried to clarify it:

“Saying ‘I don’t see colour’ causes pain and makes people feel unseen,” he wrote. “I’m sorry. I’ll never fully understand, as a white person, the lived reality of systemic racism. I’m listening, learning, and I’ll keep working every day to do better.”

Agreed, I think he made this statement right there to reach out to any left SJW in the NDP's hardcore support base... just to make sure they stick put with the NDP.

[Benjamin Frank]

 He has a big enough lead that all he to avoid was doing anything stupid which he did.

Apparently he did, by saying he doesn't see colour? I mean, that's not going to lose votes to the Liberals, but could lose votes to the Greens. Though, I don't think that many people care about that kind of SJW stuff anyways. I mean, the black face thing didn't hurt Trudeau that much, and that was say worse.

And promptly after the debate apologized or tried to clarify it:

“Saying ‘I don’t see colour’ causes pain and makes people feel unseen,” he wrote. “I’m sorry. I’ll never fully understand, as a white person, the lived reality of systemic racism. I’m listening, learning, and I’ll keep working every day to do better.”

Agreed, I think he made this statement right there to reach out to any left SJW in the NDP's hardcore support base... just to make sure they stick put with the NDP.

I thought the moderator was generally good, but I thought that was a stupid question to begin with: "Since subconscious bias is something you're not aware of in yourself, could you please tell me how this subconscious bias, which you're not aware of, has effected your decisions?"

[McMuffin2020]

Wilkinson and the BC Libs suck! Horgan 2020!!!