based off what exactly?? NJ was closer in 04, but that was manily due to the 9/11 bump Bush got throughout the metro area (Long Island, parts of the Hudson Valley, and CT as well as NJ). That bump for the GOP has since gone away and NJ is basically as Democratic as it was during the late 90's and 2000, same for the rest opf the region (maybe even more Democratic on LI since the GOP keeps losing more & more seats here) but NJ really isn't trending GOP at all. It was a 9/11 bump that is over.
The bump is yet to be seen whether or not it went away, that will be decided in the 2008 election. However, if NJ was turning Dem then I think either Garrett or Ferguson would have been defeated. The fact that they both held their seats and Kean had a decent showing say that NJ should let the GOP keep getting that 45-47 continually
You're nuts. Ferguson and Garrett are supposed to have safe districts. The fact that Ferguson almost lost and Garrett got held down to somewhere near 10% by a disaster of a candidate just goes to show that New Jersey is trending to the Democrats, not the other way around.
County by county, Democrats are gaining: Somerset, Burlington, Atlantic, and Bergen all immediately come to mind as trending leftward. Ferguson even showed weakness in reliably Republican Hunterdon County last year.
Look for Democrats to expand their majorities in the State Senate and possibly the State Assembly too this year.
