Most likely "strong lean" state to flip?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

These, to me, are not quite "battlegroud" but still in play.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Arkansas

[Lunar]

Either Arkansas or Oregon.  They're pretty close, but I'm voting Oregon.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Either Arkansas or Oregon.  They're pretty close, but I'm voting Oregon.

Colorado would not surprise me.  Neither would Arizona.  I think Washington is actually the closest in the polls, but my heart tells me there's no way it could go Bush.

Amazing that any one of the "Dukakis Five" could go Bush.

[ATFFL]

Oregon, though Maine might go about the same time.

[Defarge]

Oregon.  With Republicans helping Nader get onto the ballot, the state is once again very close to going Bush.

[MarkDel]

Oregon.  With Republicans helping Nader get onto the ballot, the state is once again very close to going Bush.

Defarge,

For once, we are in total agreement...LOL

[Defarge]

Oregon.  With Republicans helping Nader get onto the ballot, the state is once again very close to going Bush.

Defarge,

For once, we are in total agreement...LOL

And the angels began to sing...

And the flying pigs smashed into them.  There were broken harps everywhere

[TheWildCard]

Oregon.  

and Beef, just wondering do you consider Wisconsin to be solid Kerry or a Toss-up because if it were an option I'd have voted for it.

[Reignman]

definitely Arkansas.

[MODU]

Those are all good, but Maine too is a possibility.  Not a complete EV flip, but a majority swing is possible.

[Mort from NewYawk]

If Kerry were to break away with a 3% or more surge in the popular vote, I think AZ is the most primed for a flip to the Dems.

However, I'm predicting that the popular vote will be about 52-46  Bush. I have OR and ME dist. 2 in the Bush column, but I think the most likely flip is actually MI. I believe that Bush will get the biggest surge in the Midwest - that and a weak black turnout for the Dems will bring along Michigan. A state like Oregon, with it's coastal population of yuppies booming, could hold out for the Dems.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Oregon.  

and Beef, just wondering do you consider Wisconsin to be solid Kerry or a Toss-up because if it were an option I'd have voted for it.

I consider Wisconsin to be Kerry by a razor-thin margin.  I think it will be won by less than 1% either way.

"The Quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail."

[© tweed]

Michigan