This election is fools gold for Republicans. It looks within reach, but in the end the core fundamentals favor an Obama re-election, even if it's very narrow. It really is a mirror image to 2004.
What matters the most is the direction of the economy, and a very slow but persistent economic recovery will convince just enough voters to stay the course.
The CBO is saying the economy will be in recession at the start of 13' if (Obama is re-elected) we allow the tax bomb to go off. How is he going to win advocating a recession?