France General Discussion

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mélenchon should be praised just for contributing to kill Besancenot !

...Which is a good thing for the left.

Yeah. Mélenchon is a funny guy, Besancenot is boring and old.

And Mélenchon is able to ally with the PS and agree on a common project, which means that his votes won't be wasted as were Besancenot's.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A bit old but just fell on this, enjoy:

http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/0101589885-des-tracts-insultants-royal-et-aubry-laches-par-un-avion-a-poitiers

It's the story of guy who has apparently social issues (way to say it), informatician who also know how to pilot small planes, living in Paris, and who piloted a plane from the Parisian region to Poitiers, capital of the Poitou-Charente région, the one directed by Ségolène Royal, in order to release insulting tracts toward Ségolène Royal and Martine Aubry over the area of Poitiers from his plane, without landing, and went back to Paris.

lol.

[Derek]

If you don't think that the French and their history of backstabbing is a problem just wait. One night they're going to come and get you. They're gonna get you. I'm just saying what everyone already has in the backs of their minds. Watch out!

[Bo]

If you don't think that the French and their history of backstabbing is a problem just wait. One night they're going to come and get you. They're gonna get you. I'm just saying what everyone already has in the backs of their minds. Watch out!

If you continue to act this way, everyone will treat you like a joke poster.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If you don't think that the French and their history of backstabbing is a problem just wait. One night they're going to come and get you. They're gonna get you. I'm just saying what everyone already has in the backs of their minds. Watch out!

If you continue to act this way, everyone will treat you like a joke poster.

I already do treat Derek as a joke, and not an entertaining one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A bit old but just fell on this, enjoy:

http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/0101589885-des-tracts-insultants-royal-et-aubry-laches-par-un-avion-a-poitiers

It's the story of guy who has apparently social issues (way to say it), informatician who also know how to pilot small planes, living in Paris, and who piloted a plane from the Parisian region to Poitiers, capital of the Poitou-Charente région, the one directed by Ségolène Royal, in order to release insulting tracts toward Ségolène Royal and Martine Aubry over the area of Poitiers from his plane, without landing, and went back to Paris.

lol.

LOL indeed.

[Hash]

A bit old but just fell on this, enjoy:

http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/0101589885-des-tracts-insultants-royal-et-aubry-laches-par-un-avion-a-poitiers

It's the story of guy who has apparently social issues (way to say it), informatician who also know how to pilot small planes, living in Paris, and who piloted a plane from the Parisian region to Poitiers, capital of the Poitou-Charente région, the one directed by Ségolène Royal, in order to release insulting tracts toward Ségolène Royal and Martine Aubry over the area of Poitiers from his plane, without landing, and went back to Paris.

lol.

LOL indeed.

It's probably Bussereau.

[Hash]

Ifop poll for 2012

Sarkozy (UMP) 27%
Aubry (PS) 24%
Le Pen (FN) 13%
Bayrou (MoDem) 11%
Villepin (DVD) 8%
Besancenot (NPA) 5%
Duflot (EE) 5%
Mélenchon (FG) 5%
NDA (DLR) 1%
Arthaud (LO) 1%

DSK (PS) 29%
Sarkozy (UMP) 25%
Le Pen (FN) 13%
Bayrou (MoDem) 8%
Villepin (DVD) 6%
Besancenot (NPA) 7%
Duflot (EE) 5%
Mélenchon (FG) 5%
NDA (DLR) 1%
Arthaud (LO) 1%

Sarkozy (UMP) 27%
Hollande (PS) 18%
Le Pen (FN) 12%
Bayrou (MoDem) 12%
Villepin (DVD) 9%
Besancenot (NPA) 7%
Mélenchon (FG) 6%
Duflot (EE) 5%
NDA (DLR) 2%
Arthaud (LO) 2%

Sarkozy (UMP) 28%
Royal (PS) 18%
Le Pen (FN) 12%
Bayrou (MoDem) 12%
Villepin (DVD) 9%
Besancenot (NPA) 7%
Mélenchon (FG) 6%
Duflot (EE) 6%
NDA (DLR) 1%
Arthaud (LO) 1%

and a little joke poll by CSA, who still has no clue what the hell is going on:

Sarkozy (UMP) 36%
Aubry (PS) 30%
Le Pen (FN) 11%
Bayrou (MoDem) 8%
Besancenot (NPA) 6%
Duflot (EE) 5%
Buffet (PCF) 3%
Arthaud (LO) 1%

CSA, of course, fails to note that Buffet isn't even running, that Villepin likely will and that DSK could as well. Furthermore, Eva Joly is increasingly hinting that she might run in 2012.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL Ségo and Hollande...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Some people in this country really have money to lose with such polls...

[Psychic Octopus]

If there was any doubt that DSK should be the candidate...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

If there was any doubt that DSK should be the candidate...

lol, I'm waiting to see what him campaigning could look like. He can make dream because he says nothing and he is far, but...

Anyhow that would be far to be guaranteed, considering DSK temper and the battle of chiefs still going on, with Royal who seems to play a kind of strange snooker, unless she finally became humble.

Bah (French 'Meh', which is kind of funny, because when I used to do that on chats, and people told me that 'bah' was the English sound for sheep, the funny part being that 'meh' is the French sound for sheep, just funny), bah then, anyhow I'll vote for left, no matter the candidate I think.

[Hash]

Just a random note that the major candidates (in this case Sarkozy and the PS candidates) have always started out very high in polls when we're a year or two out from the actual election. Sarkozy was between 36 and 40% well into late 2006, Jospin and Chirac were both pulling 25-30% in 2000, 2001 and even early 2002, Balladur was as high as 35% of course in 1994, Mitterrand was nearing 50% in 1987 and even Giscard was in the high 40s in 1979 and 1980 iirc.

I don't know if the same can be said about polls nowadays (which are all over the place), but it's an interesting nugget of information.

[big bad fab]

Henri Cuq, old "chiraquien" and UMP congressman from Yvelines, is dead.
Just FYI.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

http://www.france24.com/fr/20100611-rachat-monde-sarkozy-a-recu-le-directeur-journal-lui-donner-son-avis

LOL. Sarkozy received the leader of the big French newspapers 'Le Monde', which has to find new financial partner to survive, to tell him that he was opposed to one of the possible financial partners because it was made of the trio that he considered 'too much on the left', he can't oppose it but it can make pressure on printing means something like that.

France!! You're:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mWQFDDkU44

[Antonio the Sixth]

Henri Cuq, old "chiraquien" and UMP congressman from Yvelines, is dead.
Just FYI.

Well, didn't know him, but RIP anyways.

[Hash]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmBMRxOCj0E

rofl. 30 minutes before France gets its ass trounced! Allez l'Uruguay (except for Yoann Gourcuff and Gaël Clichy)!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmBMRxOCj0E

rofl. 30 minutes before France gets its ass trounced! Allez l'Uruguay (except for Yoann Gourcuff and Gaël Clichy)!

That is a very very very bad coup. Such a trick is a clear act of felony toward nation.

Also:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=105348.0

[Hash]

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2010/06/08/l-ump-veut-reconquerir-les-classes-moyennes_1369650_823448.html

Laurent Wauquiez wants to 'reconquer' the lower middle-class (aka, the FN electorate).

[Hash]

http://partisocialiste.blog.lemonde.fr/2010/06/11/parti-socialiste-et-equipe-de-france-partie-liee/#xtor=RSS-32280322

1977-1978: Major PS gains in local elections and encouraging results in legislative elections, but loses (by little)
1978: France is in World Cup finals, but loses (by little)

1984: The left is in power at most levels of power
1984: France wins UEFA Cup

1992-1994: France loses badly in UEFA Cup (1992) and fails to qualify for 1994 World Cup
1993: PS gets its ass kicked epically

1995: Jospin loses presidential ballot, but does decently well
1996: France loses in UEFA Cup semi-finals, but does decently well

1997: PS wins legislative elections, Jospin's government with DSK and Aubry
1998: France wins World Cup, with Zidane et al.

2002: Jospin defeated by the first round and loses to unexpected victor Le Pen, PS does badly in legislative elections
2002: France is ousted by the first round and loses first match to unexpected victors Senegal

2006: France comes up from behind to reach the finals, lots of hope/enthusiasm but loses
2007: Royal comes up from behind to claim PS nomination, lots of hope/enthusiasm but loses semi-narrowly

2008: France does badly in UEFA Cup, out by first round
2009: PS is creamed in the European elections

2010: ?
2012: ?

(only exception is 2004: France loses UEFA quarter-finals, but PS landslides regionals

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL

Well, when Italy won world cup in 2006 the left came back to power and in 2008 with a poor performance in UEFA, they were defeated again by Berlusca.

[big bad fab]

A very interesting and funny article from Le Figaro:


Comment Larcher veut garder le Sénat à droite en 2011

Par Guillaume Perrault
15/06/2010

Le président du Sénat, Gérard Larcher, prédit «une majorité de 7 à 14 voix» pour la droite et le centre. Crédits photo : Le Figaro
Face à la progression attendue de la gauche, l'UMP compte sur le savoir-faire de l'actuel président.
 
Pensif, le président du Sénat, Gérard Larcher (UMP), contemple la carte de France des sièges à pourvoir lors des sénatoriales de septembre 2011. Pour la première fois depuis la Libération, la droite et le centre pourraient perdre le Sénat lors de ce scrutin. À neuf mois de la présidentielle, le coup serait rude pour la majorité.

Le collège électoral des sénatoriales est composé pour 95% de délégués des conseils municipaux. Or, les très bons résultats de la gauche aux municipales de 2008 augmentent son poids dans le collège électoral. L'opposition sénatoriale va d'autant plus progresser en 2011 que, pour la première fois, la moitié des sièges de la Haute Assemblée -et non plus le tiers- sera à pourvoir.

Pour limiter la casse, Larcher multiplie les déplacements dans les départements -52 depuis son élection comme président- à la rencontre des élus locaux. L'occasion de tenter de convaincre les grands électeurs sans attache partisane, très nombreux, qu'il les défend et les protège.

Son été sera consacré à l'étude de la carte électorale. «Je vais faire de la haute couture avec mes gros doigts», assure Larcher. Dans les départements très peuplés (Bas-Rhin, Seine-et-Marne), qui désignent au moins quatre sénateurs, l'élection a lieu à la proportionnelle. Or, ce mode de scrutin encourage les candidatures dissidentes des sortants qui n'ont pas obtenu la première place sur la liste de leur parti. Larcher va donc s'évertuer à dissuader les intéressés de présenter leur liste.


«Une majorité de 7 à 14 voix»

La droite a néanmoins intérêt à présenter deux listes dans certains départements peuplés et aux identités locales fortes. «Dans le Nord, les élus des Flandres ne donneront pas leurs voix à un candidat du Valenciennois et réciproquement», pronostique un bon connaisseur de la géographie politique.

Dans les départements moins peuplés (Orne, Vosges), le vote a lieu au scrutin majoritaire à deux tours. Une liste unique de la majorité est alors recherchée. Pour autant, si le département compte deux sièges seulement, comme dans le Loir-et-Cher, la majorité ne peut les ravir tous les deux. L'UMP a alors intérêt à soutenir une centriste -en l'occurrence Jacqueline Gourault, proche de François Bayrou- pour éviter que la gauche ne rafle le siège.

Les cantonales de mars 2011 pèseront sur le scrutin. Les grands électeurs indécis votent souvent pour les candidats de la même couleur politique que la majorité du conseil général, qui cofinance les projets des communes.

Larcher prédit en définitive «une majorité de 7 à 14 voix» pour la droite et le centre. L'hypothèse la plus probable est que UMP et PS-PC seront au coude à coude à l'issue du scrutin.

Aussitôt après, les sénateurs éliront leur président. Le premier danger pour Larcher est le risque d'une primaire au groupe UMP. La présidence de la commission des affaires étrangères et de la défense pourrait être proposée à Jean-Pierre Raffarin, candidat malheureux contre Larcher en octobre 2008, en contrepartie de son soutien.

La désignation du président du Sénat a lieu à bulletins secrets lors d'une journée marathon. La majorité absolue est requise aux deux premiers tours, cas de figure peu probable. À partir du troisième tour, la majorité simple suffit. Larcher espère tirer parti de la tradition d'individualisme parlementaire qui prévaut au Sénat pour nouer des alliances de revers.

Certains communistes pourraient préférer soutenir l'ancien RPR qu'est Larcher, et qu'ils ont appris à apprécier comme président, plutôt que d'aggraver l'hégémonie du PS à gauche en lui donnant les clés du Palais du Luxembourg. Des sénateurs radicaux de gauche -souvent élus avec les voix des grands électeurs UMP pour barrer la route au PS là où la droite ne peut l'emporter- pourraient eux aussi apporter leurs suffrages à Larcher.

A contrario, on ne peut exclure que les socialistes, à défaut de pouvoir l'emporter, apportent leurs voix à un centriste -par exemple Jean Arthuis, austère président de la commission des finances- pour priver l'UMP de la présidence du Sénat. Une vision de cauchemar pour le lointain successeur d'Alain Poher et René Monory.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting indeed (though I obviously wish he will fail). And it's just amazing that after more than 50 years of domination from the center-right, the Senate is finally a competitive and pluralist institution. Yeah, sometimes things improve instead of worsening... even in France.

[Hash]

Been a long time since I saw an article on such a matter written by somebody who knows the sh**t and doesn't waste my time by writting crap.

ftr, the left needs 22 seats. The left had gained 21 in 2008, when only a third was up. In 2008, the 'rebellion' of rural folks (which still hold disproportionate power in the electoral college) was what killed the right more than predicted (most people predicted only +10 for the left or so). Sarkozy's rural policy will play a far larger role in determining how these king-makers vote than Larcher's lobbying, and so far results haven't been pleasing for the UMP (see the cantonal by-election in Arcis-sur-Aube, lost by the UMP to a centrist-MoDem type).

[big bad fab]

The reform of local public bodies (and local tax reforms and financial relations between the national level and local levels) is very badly managed, very stupid in many of its proposals, very badly received by many local politicians, including UMP ones.

Someone like Eric Doligé, a real rightist (president of Loiret's departemental council), is very angry at Sarkozy... It says a lot.

It'll be hard for Larcher to compensate for all these setbacks.