France General Discussion

[Antonio the Sixth]

Aubry catching up with DSK and Royal catching up with Aubry... Very worrying.

[Hash]

Aubry catching up with DSK and Royal catching up with Aubry... Very worrying.

Royal came out of the regionals very strong. Hopefully it's a short boost, but she seems to have adopted a saner style lately.

[Umengus]

Aubry catching up with DSK and Royal catching up with Aubry... Very worrying.

Royal came out of the regionals very strong. Hopefully it's a short boost, but she seems to have adopted a saner style lately.

the interessant thing is that sarkozy, Royal and Bayrou (the top tier of the last election) are very unpopular. 

[Hash]

Aubry catching up with DSK and Royal catching up with Aubry... Very worrying.

Royal came out of the regionals very strong. Hopefully it's a short boost, but she seems to have adopted a saner style lately.

the interessant thing is that sarkozy, Royal and Bayrou (the top tier of the last election) are very unpopular. 

Interesting. Learn flipping basic English.

[Umengus]

Aubry catching up with DSK and Royal catching up with Aubry... Very worrying.

Royal came out of the regionals very strong. Hopefully it's a short boost, but she seems to have adopted a saner style lately.

the interessant thing is that sarkozy, Royal and Bayrou (the top tier of the last election) are very unpopular. 

Interesting. Learn flipping basic English.

calm down please

[big bad fab]

What's interesting is that some of Sarko's lackeys, like Bertrand, are mentioning the possibility of UMP primaries for 2012. It's surprising that such an eventuality is discussed by Sarkozy's little doggies (they wouldn't say anything on their own orders, given that they're his little troops). Maybe it's part of a larger trick by Sarkozy to destabilize Villepin et al by putting wrong rumours in the air,
YES, of course ! Opening the door, so that the Villepinists don't quit the UMP too early...

but maybe it's the first signs that Sarkozy is reconsidering re-election in 2012 with dwindling poll ratings (30-35% approval or something now).

Now, I'm still 95% sure Sarkozy will run, knowing him and his love for power, but it's interesting nonetheless.
I would say 98%. The 2% being big health problems and a new divorce (but only if it occurs after September 2011) !

The scene on the right could be very interesting in the next 2 years and will probably not be.
The centre-right won't be strong enough to have a real suspense. Villepin may well be a new Bayrou, with all these boring aspects: no clear positioning, excessive volatility in polls.
Whereas a first round with Sarkozy-Borloo-Alliot-Marie would be so funnier !

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Aubry catching up with DSK and Royal catching up with Aubry... Very worrying.

Royal came out of the regionals very strong. Hopefully it's a short boost, but she seems to have adopted a saner style lately.

If even you recognizes it, then that tells something... Well, yes, following what I already said before, I saw her on Grand Journal 2 days ago, and that was it, she is better and better, easy talking, serious, constructive, that's at least what she displays and well, plus, with saying that by now she doesn't run, again and again, she puts all the pressure on Aubry's camp. She lost her either authoritarian, either goofy/crazy style. All the stuffs she did until now might have only been a way to find her place in the the current crazy media society, her 'mistakes' maybe. Though, I'm not saying she's wonderful, she keeps this part of populism that flatters the ego of the people, but far less than before, and far more smartly anyhow. If she keeps this way plus a bit of more serious 'Madone style' I maintain she can go far.

As for the right, hmm, Sarkozy running, maybe, dunno. The fact UMP, and especially Xavier Bertrand, speaks about primaries is obviously interesting. The fact that someone like Juppé speaks about an eventual candidacy, just the fact he publicly speaks about it is important, no matter if it achieves nothing. Villepin has by no means to be neglected, not electorally but in the psychological impact he can have on this now more and more divided right, during 2 years. Let's add yesterday the kind of stuffs that Mariani said, the 'bouclier fiscal', the fact that the center-right takes more distance with UMP. The UMP boat is really swinging. The UMP was Sarkozy, it was only strong because Sarkozy was strong, that wouldn't be a random then if it seriously swings when Sarkozy seriously swings. Then oppositely to what Antonio said I think it's pure modern political product, as a lot of modern products, it can easily finish in a bin, then I don't consider it a strong machine at all, built on one man, who wanted to be 'tall', but who doesn't succeed in it (maybe because he was more interesting by being 'tall' than by making 'tall' things...haha...heard in New-York? 'by asking for the moralization of capitalism, I set the bases that will save capitalism..........woooooow...it might takes something to someone to say stuffs like that...).

Anyhow, about the political future of Sarkozy, yes, he might run again, but not so sure, seeing he could lose, he could also agree to participate to primaries, saying to his camp 'ok, some disagree with me, then let's run in primaries' in which he wouldn't fight much, not to win, a kind of way to retire but not to resign, avoiding to take a slap on the national scene then.

As for his greed of power, I agree, but, as said a while ago, and as I think for a long time now, before his election to presidency, I think, like Napoléon (maybe not consciously in his case), he wants to take Europe. And well, the mandate for the next presidency of Europe ends some months after the next presidentials, he sees himself as the father of Lisbon Treaty, everybody is annoyed by Rompuy, Sarkozy could still be sexy on the European scene, and the EU is clearly on the right, and he seems to quite easy there. So, he could be quite interested in giving a new dimension to the EU presidency, that or the commission, but the presidency would fit him better maybe, seems he loves to talk and to move his hands, but to do something, it's an other story...

Anyways, the 2 years that come will be quite interesting, left could change, ecology has to find a place, right could change, and FN will also change. Interesting...

(dear, I make long posts nowadays, don't I?)

[frihetsivrare]

http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0402/laidoff-workers-threaten-blow-french-plant/


Laid-off workers threaten to blow up French plant

By Agence France-Presse
Friday, April 2nd, 2010 -- 10:41 am


CREPY-EN-VALOIS, France — Workers at a French car accessories plant north of Paris threatened Friday to blow up their factory unless they were given better layoff compensation.

Employees at the Sodimatex plant placed petrol bombs near a large gas tank and were threatening to set them on fire.

"The plant is going to go up in smoke, if that's what they want," said one worker.

Managers sat down with union leaders and labour mediators at the town hall in Crepy-en-Valois in a bid to defuse tensions at the plant, where 92 jobs will be shed.

"The workers have high expectations about this meeting. There has to be a concrete result or else anything could happen. They are very determined," said Eric Lemoine, a union activist.

"Even if we tell them not to do it, some of them might not listen," said another union leader, Gerard Decleir.

Staff set fire to pieces of plastic and rolls of carpet at the factory, sending billowing black smoke into the sky as police deployed outside the plant's gates.

Industry Minister Christian Estrosi condemned the workers' action as "unacceptable" and called on them to settle the row with management through talks.

Workers are demanding compensation of 21,000 euros (28,000 dollars) each, much more than the 15,000 euros on offer from the owners.

France has its highest unemployment rate in a decade, at 10 percent, with the car industry among the hardest-hit by the global slowdown.

The sector employs 10 percent of the total French workforce.

Last year, French workers hit by a wave of layoffs carried out a series of "bossnappings" to press demands for better redundancy packages, but the radical action has subsided over past months.

President Nicolas Sarkozy spoke out against the detentions, saying they were illegal, and vowed to take action.

In his appeal to the workers, the industry minister said "only dialogue can lead to results for the workers facing a painful situation with the closure of their plant. Violence and threats will only lead to a dead-end."

Sodimatex, which produces car carpets, announced last April that it planned to shut down its plant in Crepy-en-Valois and began talks on compensation.

But months of negotiations hit an impasse and workers on Thursday decided to occupy the plant after police used tear gas to disperse a protest they were holding near the factory.

About 40 workers spent the night at the plant, sleeping on the factory's just-produced carpets.

Union activists contend they are seeking the same package as Sodimatex employees from another plant who were given 21,000 euros each when their factory was shut down in 2006.

[Hash]

French employees acting erratically and borderline stupidly when laid off isn't news.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yah, there have been several stories like that in the past months. Generally it ended up by employees that obtain more money than planed, and several cases did it only in this aim.

Though, it has been a few months there hadn't been new cases, and when I saw this new case this afternoon in my France24 widget I thought: 'hmm, they should pay attention, threats after threats, one day people will really do it', and I thought to other things. I lately opened TV in the evening, the news of France3 were finishing on the fact that the negotiations collapsed, worrying tone, more worrying than usually concerning these affairs, I switched to other evening news, and effectively, this case sounds a more serious case than usual. More despair, more 'nothing to lose' in the voices of people concerned. Dunno how this one will end up, but could be the case where 'it actually happen'. I'll monitor news latter. Globally the French mood of defiance toward capitalism is still present, people feel they have been f**ked, they have families, future is grey and so forth...

[Antonio the Sixth]

French employees acting erratically and borderline stupidly when laid off isn't news.

It's just a little minority that does such things.

[Hash]

French employees acting erratically and borderline stupidly when laid off isn't news.

It's just a little minority that does such things.

Yes, but it isn't new.

[Hash]

Rumours say Villepin will call his new outfit "Pour une République solidaire" (PRS). A tinpot name, with the same old catchwords (solidaire). What's amusing is that Mélenchon's old faction within the PS had the same initials (as did the current PRG in 1997 or so).

Apparently a bunch of UMP deputies are fearing for their seats in 2012, to the point that around 200 deputies are pushing for electoral reform which would make runoff rules for legislative elections identical to those for the presidential election (thereby preventing the FN from qualifying in all but 5-10 constituencies at most). Marleix supports it, but Gaudin and Morin are opposed. Some obviously remember 1997's triangulaires de la mort and the regionals made those memories come back (though the turnout in the regionals would have prevented any third-placed list in any constituency from qualifying: the threshold there is 12.5% of registered voters).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently a bunch of UMP deputies are fearing for their seats in 2012, to the point that around 200 deputies are pushing for electoral reform which would make runoff rules for legislative elections identical to those for the presidential election (thereby preventing the FN from qualifying in all but 5-10 constituencies at most). Marleix supports it, but Gaudin and Morin are opposed. Some obviously remember 1997's triangulaires de la mort and the regionals made those memories come back (though the turnout in the regionals would have prevented any third-placed list in any constituency from qualifying: the threshold there is 12.5% of registered voters).

I'd actually support such reform. A deputy elected with less than 50% of the votes can't be legitimate (if ever you can consider uninominal constituency voting as legitimate). Obviously, the same thing would apply to local elections, for which the UMP crooks want the FPP system to be used.

[Hash]

Apparently a bunch of UMP deputies are fearing for their seats in 2012, to the point that around 200 deputies are pushing for electoral reform which would make runoff rules for legislative elections identical to those for the presidential election (thereby preventing the FN from qualifying in all but 5-10 constituencies at most). Marleix supports it, but Gaudin and Morin are opposed. Some obviously remember 1997's triangulaires de la mort and the regionals made those memories come back (though the turnout in the regionals would have prevented any third-placed list in any constituency from qualifying: the threshold there is 12.5% of registered voters).

I'd actually support such reform. A deputy elected with less than 50% of the votes can't be legitimate (if ever you can consider uninominal constituency voting as legitimate). Obviously, the same thing would apply to local elections, for which the UMP crooks want the FPP system to be used.

I'd much prefer STV to be used, but a runoff if there is to be one should be between the top two finishers, though such a rule would hurt small parties.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently a bunch of UMP deputies are fearing for their seats in 2012, to the point that around 200 deputies are pushing for electoral reform which would make runoff rules for legislative elections identical to those for the presidential election (thereby preventing the FN from qualifying in all but 5-10 constituencies at most). Marleix supports it, but Gaudin and Morin are opposed. Some obviously remember 1997's triangulaires de la mort and the regionals made those memories come back (though the turnout in the regionals would have prevented any third-placed list in any constituency from qualifying: the threshold there is 12.5% of registered voters).

I'd actually support such reform. A deputy elected with less than 50% of the votes can't be legitimate (if ever you can consider uninominal constituency voting as legitimate). Obviously, the same thing would apply to local elections, for which the UMP crooks want the FPP system to be used.

I'd much prefer STV to be used, but a runoff if there is to be one should be between the top two finishers, though such a rule would hurt small parties.

We definitely agree.

[Hash]

News:

JMLP has finally announced his retirement and his non-candidacy in 2010. The next Congress, on January 15-16 2011 will decide his successor. No surprises in the top two candidates: Marine and Gollnisch. Two rivals (who hate each other) and two distinct views. Marine Le Pen is 'more modern', more populist, and would bring the FN (one assumes) on a more working-class line like she's done in her craphole. Her rhetoric is more modern, in that it incorporates the new themes of 'Islamization' and 'Republican values'. Gollnisch is more old-line, more Algerie francaise-OAS, more fascist, more 'old' anti-semitic. Marine is seen to have the upper hand, especially given that anti-Marine people like Carl Lang have left the party.

Michel Hunault (NC) has introduced legislation for the creation of an office of Vice President. Fun!

Sarkozy says he'll decide on 2012 by end of summer-start of fall 2011.

[Hash]

Ifop poll for 2012

Sarkozy (UMP) 25%
Aubry (PS) 25%
Le Pen (FN) 13%
Duflot (EE) 8%
Villepin (DVD) 7%
Bayrou (MoDem) 7%
Mélenchon (FG) 6%
Borloo (DVD) 3%
Besancenot (NPA) 3%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 2%
Arthaud (LO) 1%

Still according to Ifop, Sarkozy's satisfied rating is 31% (+1) with 68% (+3) not satisfied. Fillon's satisfied rating is up 1 to 50% with 47% (+2) dissatisfied.

In another Ifop poll on the right's 2012 candidate, there's a marked difference between voters and UMP voters (http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1137-1-study_file.pdf). 51% of UMP voters want Sarkozy, but only 20% of the general electorate.

Interesting tidbit: on the issue of 'understands the problems of people like us', Fillon eats Sarkozy alive 63-23.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou is high.

[Hash]

Bayrou is high.

The MoDem is a personal machine, so the vote for the leader is always higher than that of the local candidate. Le Pen had a similar thing going (see the difference between his presidential vote and the legislative vote for the FN) at times.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Damn, Le Pen higher than Duflot...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou is high.

The MoDem is a personal machine, so the vote for the leader is always higher than that of the local candidate. Le Pen had a similar thing going (see the difference between his presidential vote and the legislative vote for the FN) at times.

Still, more than ever he appears as a guru, for those who follow the political show though, I remind of a quite crazy report made by 'C politique' a few weeks back, sounded surrealist. When spotlights will be more on him maybe people would figure out, he became clearly weird, he'd really have to change of job now, for his sake. I hope he won't have 500 sigs.

[big bad fab]

Borloo is really low (and he is also among UMP voters !). Granted, this is the first time the name is tested "against" other center and right leaders.

Mélenchon should be praised just for contributing to kill Besancenot !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mélenchon should be praised just for contributing to kill Besancenot !

...Which is a good thing for the left.

[Hash]

Mélenchon should be praised just for contributing to kill Besancenot !

...Which is a good thing for the left.

Yeah. Mélenchon is a funny guy, Besancenot is boring and old.