France General Discussion

[big bad fab]

Even with powerful Jacques Le Guen and Jean-Pierre Grand, the villepinistes aren't a very important crowd

You're right on the PRG, Hash.
What is interesting is that (I'm a bit exaggerating, but not much, I think) when Baylet and Zuccarelli retire, and if the "young RG" (I don't remember their name) take the power, it will be quite a left wing of the PS: DSK, Royal, Delanoë, Moscovici and Hollande are all closer to the centre !

And of course, Sarkozy saved the juppéistes because they converted. And they converted because they were younger than the mainstream chiraquiens...
I think, though, that this distinction may well come back: just imagine Sarkozy faces great internal problems (more social or police ones than economic, I think; or even corruption and favoritism ones) in 2011, just imagine Copé wants to take a risk and run as soon as 2012 (like Obama ran as soon as 2008... sorry for this comparison )...
I'm sure you may find, behind Copé, some of these juppéistes (Woerth, Jégo), and some of the younger ex-chiraquiens (Pécresse, Kosciuszko-Morizet).
But not Bertrand: he's now too much dependent on Sarkozy, as he's hated by many on the right ("le chouchou" will stick to him...).

What's interesting in all this is that Borloo has really faded away from the frontpage, although he's the only alternative to Sarkozy on ideas.
BE CAREFUL ! I'm not saying he has real or clear ( you know his alcoholic image...) ideas. I'm just talking about political positioning.
And I'm not saying either he is a CREDIBLE alternative, in human and electoral terms...

As for 2012, if there are no significant candidate from the centre-right (and there won't be... bouhouhou... Juppé, Barnier, where are you ?), I'll be forced to vote for Sarkozy. Maybe Boutin in the 1st round, just to bother Sarkozy a bit, if she's candidate.

Why can't there be a big centre-right party with one fine leader in France ?
There was a big centre-party with the UDF, but, as for leaders, well...
The only fine ones were second-class (Barrot, Bosson) or... outside the party (Barre) or in another one (Juppé, Barnier).

[Hash]

"young RG" (I don't remember their name) take the power, it will be quite a left wing of the PS: DSK, Royal, Delanoë, Moscovici and Hollande are all closer to the centre !

The PRG will probably fade into irrelevance once the bigwigs retire, even more than now...

Funny that the Jeunes RG are also members of IFLRY, like us Young Liberals. rofl.

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I was going to vote for Nihous as a protest option in 2012, but since he probably won't run, I'll be force to vote for another protest option. Dear God, my first vote and it's already as awful as hell.

I wish there was a viable, independent electoral option which was pro-European, socially liberal, secular, centrist and progressive. Sadly, this is France we're talking about and the chances of us having a party as cool as the Norwegian Venstre is next to zero

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Héhé. Not to mention I expected seeing such remarks on Villepin...

Ok, we're in France now, and in France, today, pardon but it's hard to find a decent leader. The only reasonable one, Strauss Kahn, is not, IMO, fit to be at the head of a state.

We have also to deal with great leaders, so with people you have to expect they are a bit particular.

Also, leading a nation is a lot of story telling, differences are between those who are sincere, those who are not and those who are more or less, and those who tend to be "crazy".

For me Villepin, no matter what others could think, would rather be a "more or less". His lyricism has nothing shocking for a big political leader, they all are, and at least I feel he is a bit more sincere and realist than Sarkozy when he goes in lyricism (should I remind the "sacrifice to the nation" of Guy Moquet, the jew child of the holocaust for each French pupil, the "politics of civilization", damn that is all some stupid and pointless lyricism, just because the guy is persuaded his ideas are wonderful, he thinks he should allow himself to throw it like that).

Ok, Bayrou has something like that too, but I still find him more decent than Sarkozy in this realm, the same for Villepin. Then, Royal...should I really speak about her? I put her in "tend to be crazy".

Then, among all leaders, I'll go for Villepin and Bayrou. Héhé, I know it may doesn't play for me here.

Yes, Villepin has 2 big problems, CPE and Clearstream. Hmm, CPE, he could come, apologizing, saying it was an error, "that the crisis helped him to see clear now", something like that. Clearstream, it's 50/50, either he loses and he's politically dead, either he doesn't, and...everything is possible. Actually have you seen the energy he puts in media for a come back. The guy knows whether or not he is innocent, and the slightest we can say it is that he feels very confident. So, we'll see.

And, on the right, there is nothing but Villepin according to me, as a credible opposition, he is the only one able to stand against Sarkozy, Copé is too weak against a Villepin, plus, he wouldn't dare challenging Sarkozy that early, he would be afraid of it I think, Copé is a wonderful speecher and sniper in debates but that's all, the guy is really weak politically.

And concerning big Villepin followers, Tron, Goulard, Mariton, sure they are not known, but today media recognition isn't a problem. It isn't a problem in the sens it can go very fast (who the hell knew Christianne Kelly before? and in a few days...). The only point is to be good and efficient and to be in a dynamics. These 3 can be very good I think.

Anyways we'll see what happens, but, actually, in case of big problems for Sarkozy (damn he will have to fight swine flu in autumn, the thing that would be his best ally against a social crisis ), if the guy found him in real big difficulties, before the elections or when the elections will come, what are the alternatives?

Villepin, Bayrou, Royal, Besancenot.

The only decent card would be Strauss Kahn, if ever he succeeds in overcoming its technocrat attitude, we never know...

[big bad fab]

I was going to vote for Nihous as a protest option in 2012, but since he probably won't run, I'll be force to vote for another protest option. Dear God, my first vote and it's already as awful as hell.

I wish there was a viable, independent electoral option which was pro-European, socially liberal, secular, centrist and progressive. Sadly, this is France we're talking about and the chances of us having a party as cool as the Norwegian Venstre is next to zero

I've just heard that the Hérault federation of CPNT don't want to join the presidential majority.

I've talked about South-West (with Gironde, Landes and Pyrenees in mind:
"It may be the end of this hunters' story in French elections, as South-West hunters, more on the left, won't follow."
But it's Hérault first.

And they have a good idea for you, Hash: they want to be on Georges Frèche's list for the 2010 regional elections !
See, there is hope for weird opposition...

Really BIG politics this summer in France !!

[MaxQue]

Well, the two CPNT general councillors are sitting with the left. CPNT general councillor in Gironde is sitting with the left, in the ''Majorité départmentale'' and the CPNT general councillor in Hérault is ''PS apparenté''.

So, they could lose all their elected officials. Sad, I know than rural regions are often forgotten by the big parties and governments.

[Hash]

Well, the two CPNT general councillors are sitting with the left. CPNT general councillor in Gironde is sitting with the left, in the ''Majorité départmentale'' and the CPNT general councillor in Hérault is ''PS apparenté''.

The website of the Herault general councils does not list Christophe Morgo as PS but as CPNT, but I digress. The CPNT vote here is left-wing, check how poorly Libertas did her compared to say, Somme or Manche.

The Somme CG doesn't seem to list partisan affiliations, probably 'cause they suck, but Wikipedia has the CPNT councilor there as an Independent.

And all of them seem relatively safe, fwiw.

[MaxQue]

Well, the two CPNT general councillors are sitting with the left. CPNT general councillor in Gironde is sitting with the left, in the ''Majorité départmentale'' and the CPNT general councillor in Hérault is ''PS apparenté''.

The website of the Herault general councils does not list Christophe Morgo as PS but as CPNT, but I digress. The CPNT vote here is left-wing, check how poorly Libertas did her compared to say, Somme or Manche.

The Somme CG doesn't seem to list partisan affiliations, probably 'cause they suck, but Wikipedia has the CPNT councilor there as an Independent.

And all of them seem relatively safe, fwiw.

As CPNT, but apparenté to the PS group, in Hérault.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

France general discussion...

WTF... It's hot nowadays...

Several days at about 37C here... And they announce it to continue until Thursday...

Just shut inside all the day.

[big bad fab]

France general discussion...

WTF... It's hot nowadays...

Several days at about 37C here... And they announce it to continue until Thursday...

Just shut inside all the day.

Not in Rennes... we live AT LAST with some sun out there !
Hash and every French poster will understand me

[Hash]

Ipsos approvals

July 2009

Sarkozy

Unfavourable 52% (+1)
Favourable 45% (-3)
NSP 3% (+2)



Fillon

Favourable 48% (-2)
Unfavourable 45% (nc)
NSP 7% (+2)



Top politicians

1. Bertrand Delanoe (PS) 62/27
2. Rama Yade (UMP) 61/21
3. Bernard Kouchner (DVG0 61/31
4. Jean-Louis Borloo (UMP-PR) 57/28
5. Michele Alliot-Marie (UMP) 56/35
6. Jack Lang (PS) 55/34
7. Fadela Amara 54/22
8. DSK (PS) 53/32
9. Christine Lagarde (UMP) 48/34
10. DCB (Greens) 45/36

Party leaders

Le Pen Sr. stands at 84% unfavourable
[Panzer Girl stands at 77% unfavourable]
[Royal stands at 67% unfavourable]
Bayrou stands at 57% unfavourable
Aubry stands at 56% unfavourable
Besancenot stands at 49% unfavourable
Bertrand at 35% unfavourable (39% favourable)
Morin stands at 26% unfavourable (with 41% NSP)

Alliot-Marie is the most popular politician with UMP supporters (84%), with Borloo (78%) and Kouchner (76%) also being on top. DSK is the most popular leftist with UMP supporters, with 62% favourables. Royal is the least popular with 90% unfavourable

Delanoe is the most popular politician with PS supporters (75%), with Lang (64%), and Rama Yade (60%) also being on top. Royal has net favourables with her party supporters, but only 56%. She can take solace in the fact that Hollande (55%) and Aubry (54%) are lower. Le Pen is the least popular with 94% unfavourable.

[Хahar 🤔]

Hachémite veut parler français dans ce sujet.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Concerning polls:

I'm always surprised to see Kouchner regularly high. Damn.

Then, let's note that Besancenot has still a bit less than a majority of unfavorable.

And concerning the PM, thanks for the data, but actually, since the Sarkozy's system, PM data don't really matter anymore.

Hachémite veut parler français dans ce sujet.

Tiens donc, alors tu parles français?

[Хahar 🤔]

Non; mon français est horrible. J'use Wiktionnaire.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ipsos approvals

Oh, thanks for these graphs ! I've always wanted to see evolution of approval rantings... Thanks again.
Anyways, great news to see Delanoe as the most popular politician. I would have voted for him in 2008...

Non; mon français est horrible. J'use Wiktionnaire.

Utilise.

Aha, je me venge pour toutes les fois ou tu m'as corrigé !

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Non; mon français est horrible. J'use Wiktionnaire.

I did not know Wikitionnaire/Wikitionnary, that said, I don't have the wiki reflex generally speaking, thanks, that can be good for some stuffs, though I find it a bit messy, not enough convenient in its form, but the content seems good.

You can also try reverso.net, that's what I use when I need help, in its French version, I find their form convenient and their content enough rich.

[Hash]

Political updates

The President of Alsace, Adrien Zeller (UMP), died on August 22 at 69. Zeller had occupied the post since 1996, and also served for a long time as Mayor of Saverne but also as MEP and deputy. Until 2002, he was a member of the UDF-CDS, and was a self-defined démocrate social - though I liked to think that he was kind of a 'social Christian'. As Secretary of State for Social Security, he had tried to create something similar to the RMI - the RME (revenu minimum d'existence) which he did create in Saverne and which was the basis for Rocard's RMI. He was elected to the Regional Council in 1992 leading his own list opposed to then-President Marcel Rudloff (UDF-CDS) and became President in 1996 defeating a RPR opponent due to the support of the Greenies. He was strongly opposed to the FN, and was a convinced Europhile and a fervent supporter of decentralization. Alsace has lost a real FF, RIP.

Bernard Stoessel (DVC, ex-MoDem) is Zeller's interim successor, but it seems likely that Stoessel will be elected by the Regional Council as President until 2010 soon. The UMP didn't nominate a candidate in Alsace in its regional primaries a few months ago, so the field is still open. Names for UMP top candidates in 2010 include Senator Philippe Richer, but former cabinet minister and incumbent deputy François Loos (Radical-UMP) and the UMP leader in the Bas-Rhin André Reichardt (a nobody, I've never heard of him) are also potential names. In addition, Stoessel could lead a centrist list. On the left, it is not known whether or not 2004 candidate and President of the Strasbourg Urban Community Jacques Bigot (PS) will be candidate. The Greenies will nominate their candidate soon - they had supported the PS in 2004.

Speaking of Greenies, Christiane Taubira (PRG-Walwari) has refused the Green offer to be top candidate in Ile-de-France in the regionals. Taubira had personally supported the Greenies in the Euros and even supported Voynet in 2007. In an article in LeMonde.fr, she also bitches about the PRG and like all leftists, she continues to believe in stuff like 'left-wing alternatives' and the creation of a 'large, multi-party rally and alternative'. She doesn't seem to exclude a candidacy for her outfit, Walwari, in Guyana, though.

The PS and the left is still bitching amongst each other about primaries and alliances. Mélenchon is pissed off about the talk of a PS-Green-MoDem alliance and continues to act like a jerk. And he also hates the Italian PD a whole lot, calling them a right-wing party and pretending as if there are no left-wingers in the Italian Parliament. He favours an alliance between the Left Front and the NPA in the first round, everywhere, and then runoff alliances. But he's quite livid about an alliance with the "centre". The PS seems close to adopting the idea of a primary in 2012, but a large-scale primary similar to the primaries in Italy in 2005 and 2007.

[PGSable]

Bernard Stoessel (DVC, ex-MoDem) is Zeller's interim successor, but it seems likely that Stoessel will be elected by the Regional Council as President until 2010 soon. The UMP didn't nominate a candidate in Alsace in its regional primaries a few months ago, so the field is still open. Names for UMP top candidates in 2010 include Senator Philippe Richer, but former cabinet minister and incumbent deputy François Loos (Radical-UMP) and the UMP leader in the Bas-Rhin André Reichardt (a nobody, I've never heard of him) are also potential names. In addition, Stoessel could lead a centrist list. On the left, it is not known whether or not 2004 candidate and President of the Strasbourg Urban Community Jacques Bigot (PS) will be candidate. The Greenies will nominate their candidate soon - they had supported the PS in 2004.

From what I've read, it's anything but certain that Stoessel will be elected president. The UMP might prefer to elect one of their own, someone who can lead the UMP list in 2010 (such as Richer or Loos).

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The PS and the left is still bitching amongst each other about primaries and alliances. Mélenchon is pissed off about the talk of a PS-Green-MoDem alliance and continues to act like a jerk. And he also hates the Italian PD a whole lot, calling them a right-wing party and pretending as if there are no left-wingers in the Italian Parliament. He favours an alliance between the Left Front and the NPA in the first round, everywhere, and then runoff alliances. But he's quite livid about an alliance with the "centre". The PS seems close to adopting the idea of a primary in 2012, but a large-scale primary similar to the primaries in Italy in 2005 and 2007.

First, on primaries. Since the night of Euros elections, I think this is the only way for PS not to be shot by Greens, and maybe even to eat Greens. The Greens' dynamic is strong, and it's a very trendy one, they have an actual political content to come with, when the PS continues to stick on an accumulation of small ridiculous chiefs with an old rhetoric who seem not to be able to go beyond "we have to find a new project...". By these primaries, PS could integrate this Green dynamic and make it playing for them. Though, that's a double edged sword, if Greens come with a strong candidate, and if this one wins! Bubye PS... I tend to think that the results of these primaries would anyways lead to the creation of a new political movement/party on the left, like the UMP on the right, and the one who will win these primaries would give the dominating color of this new party (Pink, Green, or Orange if ever Bayrou runs it, which would surprise me). Anyways, all talks about this will make more sense after the results of 2010 regionals' results, they are a big stake I think. Last news about this primaries: my France24 widget just said that Aubry would agree with it, seems it's ok now, it will go that way.

Concerning far-left. I think Mélenchon should wake up and figure out that Besancenot and him are not on the same ship. NPA plays, and will always privilege the pavement IMO, something which is logical given it seems to be the only way for them to do something, to provoke a ballot by the pavement, this is my opinion anyways, and that's not the first time I expose it. Seems that Mélenchon is just dreaming on a new "Gauche plurielle", with him as a charismatic man, he's logical to bitch on the fact that centrist forces would be present in primaries, that would condemn him in these ones, while he could have chances to do something in it without it.

Well, anyways, all of this to me is still suspended to the economical situation, and that speedy recovering doesn't really convince me, according to what we can hear from here and there seems that people didn't really got a lesson of what happened and continue the old methods to catch some fast track benefits by any means. In case of a new krach there all these analyzes could be wiped out, in this case, I maintain that at least a big political mess is possible here, and the far-left who bet on the pavement could be ahead of the scene. Though, as I always said that's an extreme scenario, for an extreme economical situation. But, even if we don't know an other krach soon, still seems to me that the political situation could be hot, yes, people seeing the economy recovering very fast, seeing all these massive bonuses, and them unemployed, that remains an explosive situation, but I couldn't say the size of this explosion. A big come back of swine flu would be IMO the only mean to avoid something. Though that's also a double edge sword, if media and politics go too much on worrying people and if nothing happens, then people could go on "they worried us to divert our attention from the big problems" and so on.

A last parameter would be imo to be taken in consideration for what could happen in the home situation, the international situation, not the hottest one, but one to keep in mind I think. Personally, I can't help stopping to think that this new military base in Abu Dhabi could have important consequences for us if ever the situation became geopolitically hot for Iran, and in each Israeli speech it's clear that for them the striking option is clearly on the table. Adding to this that Ahmadinejad and Sarkozy seem to clearly be in a psychological confrontation, declaration after declaration, Sarkozy psychologically becoming more or the less the western "cow-boy" since the departure of Bush, compared to other western leaders.

Well, we'll see...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2009/09/11/qu-a-vraiment-dit-brice-hortefeux_1238863_823448.html#ens_id=1238747 (the 2nd video of the page)

The big polemic in France this times, in this video, Brice Hortefeux, the current Home Minister, would have some kind of racism statements, he demented, but actually when you watch the stuff, his explication is a bit...weird.

Anyways, no matter whether he actually spoke of Arabs or not, the bad is done. Sarkozy had "karcher"  and "racailles", Hortefeux will have this. This govt didn't really need that...

[Hash]

Surprise, surprise, it's the Vichyist.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Surprise, surprise, it's the Vichyist.

Haha. Didn't think about that...

[Hash]

Bayrou is now a left-winger (cue shock) after crying outloud 2007-2009 about how he's a real centrist, how he rejects left and right, and how only the centre is good.

"Il y a deux camps. Il y a le camp de ceux qui signent pour que le régime actuel dure dix ans (2007-2017). Et il y a le camp de ceux qui choisissent une alternance pour une société plus juste". - aka "There are two sides. There is the side of those who wish that the actual regime lasts ten years. And there is the side of those of choose an alternative for a more just society"

Of course, since he isn't very smart, he continues denying he's a left-winger, instead saying that he's just a 'progressive centrist'. Because, face it, dumbo, the name of two sides are right (those who wish that the actual regime lasts ten years) and the LEFT, yes, the LEFT, la sinistra ('alternative for a more just society', aka the Izquierda).

If you want my opinion, this is the equivalent of Bayrou shooting himself in the foot. Firstly, I think a good number of MoDem members joined the party because they were 'real' centrists. If they were centre-left social democrats, then they could have joined the PS, or if they don't like them, the Greenies or the Radicals. Secondly, most if not all MoDem mayors elected in 2008 did so with the support of the UMP. Bruno Joncour in Saint-Brieuc, since it's my neck of the woods, comes to mind quickly. I'm sure the situation in Arras and I think it was Mont-de-Marsan is the same. Those chaps find themselves in a tough spot, since I don't think Bousquet in Saint-Brieuc will be exactly pleased to become an ally of Joncour municipally if the MoDem's local elected officials follow the way of Mr. Flip Flops. The MoDem might now become a party similar to the PCF or Greenies, some electoral independence vis-a-vis of the PS in the first rounds (and Euros) but joining a Gauche plurielle movement in the runoffs.

Of course, this also has an important effect on the PS, and potentially re-opens the debate between the PS' so called social-liberal wing and its left-wing.

If my first point that the MoDem's members were hard-line centrists, this could potentially open a realm of possibilities for parties that continue to claim centrism, in a way or another. This could help the NC, which has recently taken up the strategy of saying that they're the only real centrists, but I'm not sure if many 'extreme centrists' will be interested by a 'party of deputies' which is the centrist component of the majority. Could it help Jean Arthuis' little AC, whose stated goal is to re-create the UDF in a way or another, with a potential enlargement to the PRG or PRV?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, the point being that personally I think that we wouldn't have seen that fast growing up of MoDem (about 60,000 adherents within a few weeks, that's something) if it had been something ideological, so I don't put into the fact that the MoDem is the place of the "real centrism" and of some "real centrists". (come on, will you now believe the story telling of Bayrou??! ). Yes, the guy comes up with "I'm the real center" blahblahblah, but that's nothing but some story telling... As I've always said, that guy may be the most interesting political leader we have today in terms of reflexion (may people watch some interviews of him by some interesting journalists to see it), and that's why I keep supporting him, but he's more and more the hell of a wrong politician, unluckily. (though, if I can recognize some qualities in him, that's just compared to others, of course, I can't make an ideal of this guy...).

To me, the fast growing of MoDem and the main part of its adherents is mainly some people who were fed up with the knee jerking of both parties and who found in Bayrou someone decently smart as a man who could represent something new in politics, screwing the old used borders, that's imo what was MoDem and its speedy growth during 2007 presidentials and shortly after. It very quickly had some importance and then, it had to live, and here began the problems...

In short the fact that, even if this guy can be interesting, he most of all thinks to "him as president" and tries to elaborate all strategies mostly in order to make win the great guy he surely thinks he could be for this country, instead of trying to make live a movement of people around some ideas (may he be reassured, he is not the only one to do that, it's just that there uses to be only 2 chairs for this game, and both are taken, so he "galère" (means it's hard for him, familial expression)). And like he galère to this game, and like until now he said "I said want be a 3rd chair" but didn't clarify with what he would build his chair he goes from loss to loss (maybe this tending to make him think that if everything is against him, he may be right, "The Chosen" complex...). And I would be very surprised that all these people who saw something new and interesting in him in 2007 and a bit after are still interested by him now. I really think Greens made a big coup on his electors with the euros, some still resting in MoDem, and the rest going to, yes, Jean Arthuis style for the rebirth of UDF (eh! do this man knows that it's useless to try to make relive something?? nah nah, nothing personal, just a , really) and well, yes, NC. If I had to be asked, I'd say that MoDem has at big maximum 40% of center-right, all the rest I'd see it as some center-left, the guy has clearly a leftist sensibility/attitude.

So, well, all of this surely makes him leaving his "extreme center" blahblah talk to "two sides one" now... (will he one day be aware that he just had to expose a clear project of society, a clear direction, instead of losing himself in poor strategies, well maybe, and that's what i think he just doesn't have one...). That would suit with the fact that I said earlier that he could come in primaries, if so, we wouldn't have finished to see him "manger son chapeau" ("eating his hat", I let those interested try to find what it means...), but well, that remains very possible.

These primaries are a big stake for the future of the PS, and of all the left in France, from center-left to NPA, NPA excluded, I still believe in the creation of a big movement coming from these primaries (which would be pink-green-orange, but I still wouldn't be able to say what would be the major color). These primaries will depend a lot of regionals. These regionals seem more and more to come as a big stake, for the left, and for the right too.

To finish, because it was question of where would go the "real centrists". Well, to answer,  Bayrou almost got it. The "Left/Right stuff" is effectively screwed, but not totally. It's screwed in terms of ideology, but it remains valid in terms of attitude. Emotions replacing ideas. That's why that's funny to see all these small clubs who still "think" like Jean Artuis, Robert Hue, while what really matters in politics now has gone far from it. And that's why I think we shouldn't analyze politics of today too much in terms of ideas displayed, rather in terms of attitudes... We have on one side those who keep thinking that politics is mainly ideas, on the other side those who well got it mainly  turned itself into emotions today. Just hope some things like what the Greens could represent when they are good, but not only that, would grow...

[big bad fab]

Bayrou is now a left-winger (cue shock) after crying outloud 2007-2009 about how he's a real centrist, how he rejects left and right, and how only the centre is good.

"Il y a deux camps. Il y a le camp de ceux qui signent pour que le régime actuel dure dix ans (2007-2017). Et il y a le camp de ceux qui choisissent une alternance pour une société plus juste". - aka "There are two sides. There is the side of those who wish that the actual regime lasts ten years. And there is the side of those of choose an alternative for a more just society"

Of course, since he isn't very smart, he continues denying he's a left-winger, instead saying that he's just a 'progressive centrist'. Because, face it, dumbo, the name of two sides are right (those who wish that the actual regime lasts ten years) and the LEFT, yes, the LEFT, la sinistra ('alternative for a more just society', aka the Izquierda).

If you want my opinion, this is the equivalent of Bayrou shooting himself in the foot. Firstly, I think a good number of MoDem members joined the party because they were 'real' centrists. If they were centre-left social democrats, then they could have joined the PS, or if they don't like them, the Greenies or the Radicals. Secondly, most if not all MoDem mayors elected in 2008 did so with the support of the UMP. Bruno Joncour in Saint-Brieuc, since it's my neck of the woods, comes to mind quickly. I'm sure the situation in Arras and I think it was Mont-de-Marsan is the same. Those chaps find themselves in a tough spot, since I don't think Bousquet in Saint-Brieuc will be exactly pleased to become an ally of Joncour municipally if the MoDem's local elected officials follow the way of Mr. Flip Flops. The MoDem might now become a party similar to the PCF or Greenies, some electoral independence vis-a-vis of the PS in the first rounds (and Euros) but joining a Gauche plurielle movement in the runoffs.

Of course, this also has an important effect on the PS, and potentially re-opens the debate between the PS' so called social-liberal wing and its left-wing.

If my first point that the MoDem's members were hard-line centrists, this could potentially open a realm of possibilities for parties that continue to claim centrism, in a way or another. This could help the NC, which has recently taken up the strategy of saying that they're the only real centrists, but I'm not sure if many 'extreme centrists' will be interested by a 'party of deputies' which is the centrist component of the majority. Could it help Jean Arthuis' little AC, whose stated goal is to re-create the UDF in a way or another, with a potential enlargement to the PRG or PRV?

What would be interesting:

to know if Bayrou is the only one behind these steps towards the left, because he has understood his personal climb to presidential power is doomed,

or if Sarnez, Artigues and Azière (i.e. the former "real" centrists that starve for power...) managed to bring Bayrou in this trend, just to be sure that, during a DSK presidency, they will get some portfolios of "ministre déléguée" and "secrétaires d'Etat",

or if Bayrou has, in fact, NO intention to become a PS ally and is just pretending to come closer to the left, because the PS seemed to be re-united in La Rochelle and because the MoDem was beaten by the Greens in the European elections
and, so, he needs to "help" divide the PS again and to be sure he isn't sidelined by the Greens as the main potential ally to win in 2012.

If this is the last option, so, Bayrou is really doomed . And the UMP can be confident.
If this is the second option, err.... Bayrou is doomed too . But the PS can be confident.
If this is the first option, well... it can't be the first option... or it's not Bayrou any more !

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

In short I personally think that in France today it is:

Who will put the hand on the left side of this country? Pure, simple and period. And all this agitation is this.