2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Tintrlvr]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

Uh, the governor is a Democrat, and the WISC is fairly moderate. Anyways it's pretty easy to make WI-1 closer and WI-3 winnable, the two goals aren't really mutually exclusive

Just to expand on this, to my mind what you should aim for for a competitive WI-01 is to avoid Waukesha. WI-04 gets the northern parts of Milwaukee county, which leaves about 200k in the south for WI-01 (those areas aren't really that blue, but whatever, they're better than the alternative). Those 200k plus Racine, Kenosha, and Walworth mean you can take like 60k from Rock, leaving you with a nice looking WI-01 which is like Trump+3.5. That still leaves plenty of Rock and other counties around Dane for WI-03 to take in to make it like Biden+1 without even splitting Dane.

One way to do it would be to run WI-01 up the shoreline of Lake Michigan to connect to the very blue but also very white NE suburbs of Milwaukee. This isn't totally crazy because the entire shoreline of the city of Milwaukee is very white, and doing so actually increases the minority population in WI-04 (which then takes the conservative SW parts of Milwaukee County). If you do it really completely, you can then take in the southern, rapidly D-trending parts of Ozaukee County in WI-01 instead of going west of Racine/Kenosha and run WI-04 a bit into Waukesha and bam you've drawn two Biden districts just in the Milwaukee metro while still increasing the black and overall minority percentages in WI-04.

Edit: Here's an example:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7153e0c7-3365-4f25-aa19-b50172d0728a

[Tintrlvr]

If we're thinking in terms of counties that form whole districts, the WOW are 100,000 short. Which is not a big deal, as Dodge and Jefferson have links to Washington and Waukesha, but I'm not sure it's a combo that draws itself.

You could just as easily say that Racine, Kenosha, Milwaukee and Ozaukee is almost the right size for two districts, and that Washington, Waukesha, Dodge and Jefferson are the right size for another.

You can try something like this:



WI-01: Trump+2.2, Walker+2.4, Biden+0.1
WI-03: Trump+1.7, Evers+5.6, Trump+0.7

The counties making up districts 1-2 and 4-5 are only 714 people above deviation combined. The city of Milwaukee is not split (everything in Milwaukee County from the city and north plus Ozaukee is 399 below deviation). WI-04 is preserved as a majority-minority district. WI-01 becomes a Biden district by just 615 votes.

Unlike my previous map's WI-03, I swapped out Juneau and Adams for Pierce. It's still a Trump district, but it shaves 4k votes off the margin. I think putting Rock County in WI-03 is really getting near a gerrymander and it takes WI-01 out of competitive range. It'd also push WI-05 up into either Fond du Lac or Sheboygan Counties.

I would put Brookfield and similar areas in Waukesha in that WI-01 instead of Walworth County.

Also feels reasonable to put Rock in WI-03 and figure out other areas to put in WI-02 (more of Jefferson/Dodge/Columbia perhaps).

[Tintrlvr]

I would put Brookfield and similar areas in Waukesha in that WI-01 instead of Walworth County.

Also feels reasonable to put Rock in WI-03 and figure out other areas to put in WI-02 (more of Jefferson/Dodge/Columbia perhaps).

The first part is doable and it brings WI-01 to Biden by about a full percentage point.

If you put Rock in WI-03, WI-02 will squeeze WI-05 into a pretty strange district. That takes the Waukesha-based WI-05 up into either Fond du Lac or Sheboygan or possibly even both. Either that or WI-02 moves north and takes Columbia and some of the counties even further north.

I think the map I posted above is the best way to make two highly competitive seats without becoming a gerrymander. You pretty much have to unpack Milwaukee County somewhat, but you don't need to split the city. (Technically, you can probably get a somewhat competitive seat if you put all of Rock County in WI-01.)

Dane + Dodge + Jefferson is close to a perfect district population wise.

Yeah, I did notice that, but it can easily set up some other problems.

You could also send WI-02 further north. I think it could go all the way to Portage. That has some level of sense since Portage County is also a college town.