Winter is here. A story of ice and snow.

[Ban my account ffs!]

All the cold air has been in central and east Asia, north Africa, the central US and Greenland.  It was -3*F (-20*C) in my hometown this morning.

A big pattern change will come to North America and Siberia, but the frigid Greenland/winterless Europe pattern will continue for at least 2-3 weeks more.

In NA a trough will build on the west coast and bring a storm train and end to the fire season.  The analogs were all great years for California skiers and winter storm lovers...1982, 1994, 2004, 2005, Nov 2009.  Meanwhile, mild conditions will build across the central and eastern US as the cold withdraws northward and stays in Greenland and Siberia.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The day 11 analogs have a truly interesting pattern.  The jet stream is splitting over the Atlantic and Europe.  The polar jet stream is far to the north and west of average with storms moving north and eastward to the west of Iceland along the east side of Greenland before moving over a massive Scandinavian high and diving back into central Russia.

Meanwhile, the subtropical jet becomes unusually strong flowing across North Africa and the Mediterranean into the Levant.  A low pressure center across southeast Europe, displaced by the massive Scandinavian high, will feed this.  I’d imagine the Middle East and North Africa will see unusual winter weather.

[Ban my account ffs!]

It looks like winter will remain at bay in the eastern US from a cold standpoint for the next two weeks as the cold focuses on Europe and western Russia.  California seems to be in for a stormy time.  The incoming storm will drop 4-5’ of snow in the mountains and heavy rains will lead to landslide risks.

The longer range forecast is for cold to move into the east from mid-January with a good chance of lasting into April.

Weak to moderate El-Niño events often feature a pattern of (against the averages) large swings of cold-warm-cold-warm in the eastern US that tend to occur at similar times of year.  Most often it is cold October into November, mild December into January, then the worst period of cold from mid-January to early March, often followed by an early spring that is then extended because of cold in late spring.

Recent examples of such winters are 2014/15, 2009/10, 2006/07, 2002/03.

[Ban my account ffs!]

You were complaining about a lack of snow!  That is quite an impressive and overwhelming amount though.

[Ban my account ffs!]

What will Tender Branson's ice mummy name be when he is found centuries from now?  Aside from his Dave Leip tattoo, what other identifying features/paraphernalia will be found with him?

Lots of padlock keys.

Welp, now it's California's turn to get it:

Upwards of 100" (~3m) of snow expected in the highest elevations, with 4-5' at Donner Pass (Where Interstate 80 passes through).

[Ban my account ffs!]

A major Arctic outbreak is going to take temperatures upwards of 50F below normal in some parts of the midwest next week.  THe models are still unsure and we're likely not to know just how cold it will get until it happens.  Already on a handful of occasions this winter, the models way underestimated how cold it would get in my hometown... on the scale of being 15F too warm.  They did it again last night with a low forecast at -23F and it got to -36F.  It doesn't understand the power of deep snow cover and calm skies to allow heat to escape into space.  It sounds weird to say "heat" at -36F but it's still a lot warmer than space.

The models are calling for temperatures at 850mb (about 5000ft altitude) as low as -45F across northern Minnesota and North Dakota.  With calm conditions, the surface would likely be colder than that due to snow cover and radiative cooling (as explained above).  Either way, it will likely get to the -40s in northern MN and into the -20s in Minneapolis and only a bit warmer as far south as Chicago.

The models are forecasting windchills across Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois down into the -60sF.  (-50sC).  Be sure to bundle up and plug in your car, folks!