Yeah, Republicans might as well concede 2018, 2020 and 2022 at this point. Atlas and the polling industry never get it wrong, after all.
Yeah, as if anyone was saying that here.
I've seen two Democrats say that Republicans should focus on winning 2022 instead of 2018 and 2020 because Trump is guaranteed to be a disaster/one-termer. And yeah, someone on this forum predicted that the GOP would lose states like TX, UT and TN in 2018. I find it amazing that Democrats are still making these overconfident predictions, even after they got clobbered in 2014 AND 2016. But maybe third time's the charm for you guys, who knows?
And regarding this poll: Even if it is accurate, it is not surprising at all. Trump has always had terrible favorability numbers during the primaries and the GE campaign (especially in big, deep blue states like CA, NJ, IL, NY and MD - states that he doesn't need anyway). This isn't going to change overnight. He only won because the Dems nominated Clinton, after all.
And when you factor in polarization and demographics, a 53% or 54% approval rating is probably his absolute ceiling, no matter what he does. I could easily see him winning reelection with a 45% approval rating, though.
Two, yeah this is bad for a president-elect. 40% approvals or lower by 2018 and the midterms will be a bloodbath.
In the House? Yeah, even though he needs to be lower than 40% for the Ds to actually retake it. The Senate, though? If his numbers are in the 20s or 30s in CA, NY and MD but in the high 40s/low 50s in states like IN or MO, that won't help red state Democrats much. I'd be shocked if the GOP lost seats in the Senate in 2018.
