Too early to say who'll win any of them. However, Paul has a realistic shot at being the first candidate since Muskie to win both Iowa and NH, yet lose the nomination.
Last time, I called Romney might be the first Republican to win both and struggle to win the nomination (or did Ford do that in 76?). I was off by less than 10 votes! Though maybe he wouldn't have struggled as much if his Iowa win had stuck.
I also would bet against Paul being the nominee even if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire. I think he's way too vulnerable. But I don't like his chances in Iowa really.
Gingrich had a decent chance to be the first Republican nominee to win neither Iowa nor New Hampshire and it's possible a less flawed candidate can accomplish that this time around. This does feel like the kind of cycle it could happen.
