Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2016

[parochial boy]

Why isn't Boris running? Something to do with Michael Gove's e-mail? People need to stop being vague.

It went further than that - Gove out and out said a few hours ago that Boris would make a crap leader. Boris then saw the numbers in the parliamentary party ebb away from him and so he pulled out.

So, Gove claims to be an expert in who would and wouldn't be a capable leader?

people in this country have had enough of experts

[Famous Mortimer]

So much for Boris being a British Donald Trump. So basically this is like if Donald Trump had dropped out because Ted Cruz said he wouldn't make a good leader?

[BaconBacon96]

I feel like something more is at play here...I find it hard to believe he would give up so easily or that the majority of his supporters bolted to Gove.

I wonder if he's done or is planning a deal with one of the other candidates...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Three out of five of the Tory leadership candidates are Scottish, Liam Fox, Michael Gove and Stephen Crabb(Born in Inverness).

OMG, wouldn't it be absolutely hilarious if Scotland became independent and Gove went from Prime Minister of the UK to private citizen of the Republic of Scotland?

[Cassius]

Good crop of candidates, would be happy with any of the winning the leadership (I'm a little be leery about May I guess, although she hasn't been too off-putting as of late), although re Liam Fox I'm not quite sure what he hopes to achieve here other than showing how far his star has fallen on a decade (not that I'm anti-Fox at all).

[Simfan34]

Three out of five of the Tory leadership candidates are Scottish, Liam Fox, Michael Gove and Stephen Crabb(Born in Inverness).

OMG, wouldn't it be absolutely hilarious if Scotland became independent and Gove went from Prime Minister of the UK to private citizen of the Republic of Scotland?

Scotland would not be a republic. At least to in the near future.

[Illiniwek]

NO WAY! What's going to happen next?

Btw, I can't find it myself, but I want to shout out HuffPo uk for an article they did yesterday or so that said Boris was not going to be PM. I know these circumstances were unforeseen, but I want to give them credit.

[parochial boy]

Gove wouldn't lose British nationality anyway, Irish citizens didn't lose British citizenship when they broke away back in 1949, so why would the Scottish have their nationality stripped?

[Zinneke]

Remember that Johnson has not impressed in his spells as an MP, and thus was unpopular with the Parliamentary Conservative Party. He was always subject to rumours that he was lazy, etc. A sort of right-wing George Galloway.

[ag]

So much for Boris being a British Donald Trump. So basically this is like if Donald Trump had dropped out because Ted Cruz said he wouldn't make a good leader?

Johnson is a lot smarter than Trump. In this case, he knows that the next PM will have a term that will be nasty, brutish, and short. He is biding his time.

[ag]

I feel like something more is at play here...I find it hard to believe he would give up so easily or that the majority of his supporters bolted to Gove.

I wonder if he's done or is planning a deal with one of the other candidates...

He is planning to wait things out. Next PM will have a very unpleasant job. He figured out, he would rather get in later.

[Zinneke]

ag, He was due to launch his campaign this morning until he realised both Gove, and more importantly, most of the Conservative MPs previously willing to back him, were not going to. He even had his core MP support (people like Dorries) in the room with him. I sincerely doubt this is him buying his time, or else he would have waited for a more opportune moment for a Brexit referendum charge and backed Remain.

The Tory MPs simply don't think he is a leader. He needs them to get into the top 2. He's not biding his time, or else he wouldnt have been the leader of Vote Leave.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So much for Boris being a British Donald Trump. So basically this is like if Donald Trump had dropped out because Ted Cruz said he wouldn't make a good leader?

Johnson is a lot smarter than Trump. In this case, he knows that the next PM will have a term that will be nasty, brutish, and short. He is biding his time.

It's not only that. The Tory establishment has infinitely more control over their party than the GOP establishment has on theirs. Drumpf could afford to tell everyone to screw themselves, Johnson needed at least some degree of parliamentary and bigwig support in order to have a chance.

[Blair]

I can't see May offering him a great office (Home, Treasury, Foreign) and neither could Gove. He'll most likely either pull a David Miliband/Portillo or just sit on the backbenches waiting.

Worth nothing that the old adage that the 'front-runner' never wins is now shockingly true- Johnson, Davis, Portillo, Clarke and Hessa.

[Hnv1]

Remember that Johnson has not impressed in his spells as an MP, and thus was unpopular with the Parliamentary Conservative Party. He was always subject to rumours that he was lazy, etc. A sort of right-wing George Galloway.

“The Telegraph had a picture of him standing in front of his desk after his fifth anniversary of being mayor. My shock was that he hadn’t moved a single thing. The desk was exactly as I left it the day I walked out; he hadn’t even moved the pot I kept my pens and pencils in."

Red Ken always said how he was the laziest person he knew

[Holmes]

If May became head of the Tories, I'd probably vote for them in the next election considering the sad state of the Labour and LibDem parties. May seems inoffensive. Johnson is trash, so I'm glad he's not in the running.

[Joe Republic]

Perhaps I misjudged the British perspective of Johnson; don't people see him as a pompous aristocratic clown?  A cringing embarrassment, surely?  To hear that he was the favorite to win before this is... alarming.

[Phony Moderate]

Worth remembering that Johnson was twice elected Mayor of London and maintained approval ratings of well over 50% throughout the vast majority of his time in office. I don't think even pre-birther Trump would have ever reached 30% as NYC Republican Mayoral candidate. Johnson has only become a figure of hate for many in recent months, for obvious reasons.

[Blair]

For the record as a Londoner I always felt this was overplayed.

He won in 2008 (at the height of New Labour unpopularity) against Ken Livingstone, and then again in 2012 against Ken Livingstone, someone currently suspended from the party.

[ChrisDR68]

Gove is one smart chap, he played all calm and charming in the debates,

From Twitter(Chris ship who is ITV news deputy political editor): "I'm told Boris' widely criticised @Telegraph column - was SUB EDITED by Michael Gove who suggested changes - and Boris put them in"

Followed by his wife email leakage yesterday,

And his speech this morning.
From Twitter( Chris ship): "Michael Gove DID NOT tell Boris of his decision to announce his own leadership bid before reporters like me. No call. No email. No text"


Michael bloody Gove is one smart dangerous man.

His problem is that he out and out said during the campaign that he didn't want to be leader or be a candidate.

I know we expect politicians to be somewhat economical with the truth but this is taking it too far and should (hopefully) rule him out of winning the contest.

My choice between the final two to go to the membership would be May and Leadsom.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Classical allusions really do write themselves don't they? Et tu Gove? Then Fall Boris Johnson!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It'd be sort of a charming symmetry if Crabb won this election and Owen Smith won Labour's. Not that either of them are particularly likely to.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Little remarked but worth noting: Much more so than Johnson, Michael Gove (and his important adviser Dominic Cummings) is a strong eurosceptic, who during the referendum campaign has said that he wants to take the UK out of the single market and depend primarily on WTO rules for trade.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Little remarked but worth noting: Much more so than Johnson, Michael Gove (and his important adviser Dominic Cummings) is a strong eurosceptic, who during the referendum campaign has said that he wants to take the UK out of the single market and depend primarily on WTO rules for trade.

Good to know. I'll take the sincere eurosceptic over the shameless opportunist any day.

[vileplume]

Perhaps I misjudged the British perspective of Johnson; don't people see him as a pompous aristocratic clown?  A cringing embarrassment, surely?  To hear that he was the favorite to win before this is... alarming.

Yes you have misjudged. Johnson is pompous and clownish but he (unlike most politicians) virtually always has positive approval ratings. His final net approval rating with Londoners (who are significantly to the left of most of the rest of the county) was +23.

The problem with Boris is he is very good at pomp and show but very weak on actual substance. Thus he was pretty popular (and still is) when he was more in a symbolic role than one of power. However if he actually became prime minister some substance would actually be required which he would fall down on badly and thus his approval ratings then would probably collapse.