Incumbents often do better than final polls

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There are definitely some examples, FDR 1936, Truman 1948, Bennet and Reid 2010, Lisa Murkowski both times.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There are definitely some examples, FDR 1936, Truman 1948, Bennet and Reid 2010, Lisa Murkowski both times.

I wouldn't use 1936, where it was one poll, done by mail and that had sample problems, and 1948, when everyone stopped polling a few weeks prior to the election.  

Gallup actually correctly called 1936.  

Gallup was way too pro-Landon, even though it was much better than Literary Digest.