2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[politicallefty]

It looks like most of these maps are collapsing MI-02 and MI-04 into one district and creating a new Republican seat in Macomb County (the latter being virtually unavoidable). Otherwise, it looks to me like they're just tinkering around with the current lines and attempting to compensate for the partisan imbalance by trying to make the Grand Rapids district a new Democratic-leaning seat. That said, it does appear quite difficult to create three Democratic-leaning seats outside of the Detroit area (assuming four there).

I made an attempt at a map myself, but I wasn't too pleased as to how it turned out overall (not for partisan reasons, just overall). I'd say it's more of a rough draft of intentions. While it does create a new Democratic-leaning Grand Rapids-Muskegon district and a Republican-leaning Macomb district, I didn't like that there are four districts each in both Wayne and Oakland Counties:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/05370be7-89d0-4e07-8229-c1bf513747a4

According to the analysis, 9 counties are split a total of 13 times. Other key metrics:

Proportionality: 74/100 (partisan bias of 52/100)
Competitiveness: 41/100
Minority Representation: 67/100
Compactness: 66/100
Splitting: 50/100

It's a slightly Republican-leaning map. The median district is MI-02, which Trump won by 0.1% (or 636 votes). Making MI-03 a Democratic district (Biden+7.9/Clinton+0.5) pushed MI-05 out of Bay City and into Oakland County, making the new district Biden+0.7/Trump+2.9. The Lansing district (i.e. Elissa Slotkin's seat) is MI-02, which I mentioned above. It moves very slightly to the left. Hillary lost it by 4.3% versus 7% in the current district.

In terms of previous elections:

2020 President: Trump 7-6
2020 Senate: James 7-6
2018 Governor: Whitmer 9-4
2018 Senate: Stabenow 8-5
2018 AG: Nessel 7-6
2016 President: Trump 8-5

[politicallefty]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/michigan/proposal_18/

This 18th!!! proposal actually strikes as the best of them all

It's the first proposal to have 5 Democratic districts in the Detroit metro (i.e. the first to not cede a Republican-leaning Macomb district). Actually, it's also the first map to have 5 Democratic districts without going the Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo route

It's definitely an improvement. However, I'm not fond of moving the Flint-Saginaw district into the Thumb. That's blood red territory and a community of interest, not to mention pulling the district to the right. It also seems like they're having trouble figuring out what to do with Grand Rapids to make it a more competitive district. It might be trending D, but it's probably out of reach in this particular map. A Grand Rapids-Muskegon district, on the other hand, would have a slight Democratic lean (anywhere from Biden +7-9% and split almost evenly between Clinton and Trump). If they slightly reduced the Democratic lean of the Macomb district, created a Grand Rapids-Muskegon district, and pulled the Flint-Saginaw district out of the Thumb, we might have a map. The Lansing district will have a slight Republican lean no matter what you do, although less than its predecessor.

Once again, it does appear that one inevitability of the eventual map will be that the eliminated district is essentially collapsing the current MI-02 and MI-04 into one district.

[politicallefty]

If the new MI-3 becomes Dem leaning and the MAGA mob remains relentless, Meijer might be smart to seriously consider switching parties. His record is thin enough he could make it work.

Where are the maps? I'm interested to see how two of them are 7/13 Biden. Every map I've seen that created a Democratic district for Grand Rapids ceded a Macomb district to the Republicans. Otherwise, they must've somehow tweaked the lines enough for the Lansing district to have voted for Biden. The map I drew on the previous page had a Lansing district that voted by a hair for Trump.

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1447792080605024259?s=20

Looks like those maps only differ in the Detroit area and are identical in the rest of Michigan. This means no Dem-leaning Grand Rapids seat, and the two swingy districts both have a R tilt. Kind of annoying honestly. You'd think at least they'd try to make the Flint-Saginaw district a bit more Democratic. There were some plans that seemed to do that.

Anyway it seems decently fair otherwise. Can't exactly complain, especially in light of what other independent commissions are doing in places like CO.

The Flint-Saginaw district is fairly constrained as to where it can go, especially if they want to maintain five Democratic districts in the Detroit-Ann Arbor area. The most important thing for that district is to keep it out of the Thumb. That is the most Republican area of the state and it has been blood red since the founding of the Republican Party in 1856. The Lansing district also really doesn't have any place to go. I think it's a pretty even split between Biden and Trump that just tinkers around the margins, but it is a slightly improved district for Elissa Slotkin.

[politicallefty]

I think the Michigan map is quite interesting, but also acceptable. It's quite similar to the map I drew on page 20, with the major exceptions being that I drew the proposed MI-04, MI-05, and MI-06 quite differently and that the proposed Macomb district is more Democratic than my map. But as expected, the current MI-02 and MI-04 are basically collapsed into one district due to the loss of a district and population loss.