How would CDU/CSU be doing in the polls right now with a different Chancellor candidate?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Laschet is the Peter-principle in action: He was somewhat competent as a state minister in North-Rhine Westphalia, became leader of the opposition, and then, more or less by luck, was elected prime minister. Laschet had decent approval ratings in NRW before becoming leader of the CDU, but getting involved in federal politics was one step too far for him. The result of this over-promotion is painfully visible right now.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

This post could've been written 1:1 in February 2020:

AKK is the Peter-principle in action: She was somewhat competent as a state minister in Saarland, became prime minister, and then, more or less by luck, was re-elected twice. AKK had very decent approval ratings in Saarland before becoming leader of the CDU, but getting involved in federal politics was one step too far for her. The result of this over-promotion is painfully visible right now.

That is true. AKK should have had the advantage of having gained some experience in federal politics as general secretary of the CDU, which she was for a brief time. Laschet's and AKK's prior experience, with both having been prime ministers, is different though. While NRW is economically, demographically comparable to a small country, being prime minister of Saarland really is only a sophisticated title for something that could be a Landrat or a mayor.