Wisconsin Megathread

[Dr. Arch]

Wood county flips! This effectively connects the entirety of the MN exurbs/Eau Claire to the stretch crossing Wausau into Oneida. These results all look so weird in comparison to others. Northern and central Wisconsin pulling out the stops.

[Ronnie]

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/981363242768445441

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/981363816884785152

He is absolutely sweating like a dog right now.  Tonight made me hopeful that he might actually lose.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I declare the Governor race is much more Tilt R than Likely R after tonight. Walker (unlike Screnock) on the ballot will boost the WOW numbers back to Romney levels, while holding on to the 2016 gains.

[Gass3268]

This is interesting:

https://twitter.com/NicholsUprising/status/981380588501430276

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I declare the Governor race is much more Tilt R than Likely R after tonight. Walker (unlike Screnock) on the ballot will boost the WOW numbers back to Romney levels, while holding on to the 2016 gains.

Republicans haven’t been able to beat Trumps margins in suburban countries in almost any election since 2016. So I am not sure why that is likely to change with Walker.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I declare the Governor race is much more Tilt R than Likely R after tonight. Walker (unlike Screnock) on the ballot will boost the WOW numbers back to Romney levels, while holding on to the 2016 gains.

Republicans haven’t been able to beat Trumps margins in suburban countries in almost any election since 2016. So I am not sure why that is likely to change with Walker.

First of all, he’s the incumbent and has had a long history of contrasting himself against the crime rates and ghettoes of Milwaukee as well as union workers in order to win over the suburbs. Second of all, Dems couldn’t even recall him during the nadir of his governorship. Third, thanks to the alt-right and Trump, Walker now looks more moderate.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I declare the Governor race is much more Tilt R than Likely R after tonight. Walker (unlike Screnock) on the ballot will boost the WOW numbers back to Romney levels, while holding on to the 2016 gains.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I declare the Governor race is much more Tilt R than Likely R after tonight. Walker (unlike Screnock) on the ballot will boost the WOW numbers back to Romney levels, while holding on to the 2016 gains.

Republicans haven’t been able to beat Trumps margins in suburban countries in almost any election since 2016. So I am not sure why that is likely to change with Walker.

First of all, he’s the incumbent and has had a long history of contrasting himself against the crime rates and ghettoes of Milwaukee as well as union workers in order to win over the suburbs. Second of all, Dems couldn’t even recall him during the nadir of his governorship. Third, thanks to the alt-right and Trump, Walker now looks more moderate.

This has surely been pointed out a billion times before, but I'll make the point anyway: Walker ran against the recall itself, casting it as an illegitimate option.

I'm not even going to get into your stereotyped portrayal of Milwaukee...

[Holmes]

Miles with the swing map soon.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I declare the Governor race is much more Tilt R than Likely R after tonight. Walker (unlike Screnock) on the ballot will boost the WOW numbers back to Romney levels, while holding on to the 2016 gains.

Republicans haven’t been able to beat Trumps margins in suburban countries in almost any election since 2016. So I am not sure why that is likely to change with Walker.

First of all, he’s the incumbent and has had a long history of contrasting himself against the crime rates and ghettoes of Milwaukee as well as union workers in order to win over the suburbs. Second of all, Dems couldn’t even recall him during the nadir of his governorship. Third, thanks to the alt-right and Trump, Walker now looks more moderate.

He is relatively polarizing statewide and in a polarized state with energized Dem turnout is the perfect setup for a Dem victory. Walkers likley opponent is also a popular incumbent in Tony Evers statewide officer who won re-election in a massive landslide last year. Also more establishment Republicans like Gillespie haven’t outperformed Trump at all in the suburbs. A lot of voters don’t seem to care much about ideology they just want to punish Trump/Republicans and I doubt that changes much by November.

[Dr. Arch]

What are the outstanding precincts in Dane? It's possible for Dallet to net even 82%.

[Virginiá]

First of all, he’s the incumbent and has had a long history of contrasting himself against the crime rates and ghettoes of Milwaukee as well as union workers in order to win over the suburbs. Second of all, Dems couldn’t even recall him during the nadir of his governorship. Third, thanks to the alt-right and Trump, Walker now looks more moderate.

It should be clear by now that this election cycle will be much worse for just about all Republicans than 2012 was. I mean, if you truly do not believe it will, then I don't even know what to say. Almost nothing that has happened since 2016 has been anything other than an example that a great many people are pissed off and are voting for anyone but Republicans. They don't care about contrasts.

Incumbents do have an advantage, but that is usually weakened in waves, and after 8 years, an incumbent's track record can also begin to turn against them if they are not popular. I dunno what Walker's current approvals are, but last I saw, they weren't through the roof. He went from unpopular to middling, which isn't exactly the biggest help in a bad election cycle.

[Adam Griffin]

Dane County alone is outvoting every Screnock county in the state combined by around 23,000 votes right now.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Also what has to be more cornering for the Treasury elimination referendum being overwhelmingly rejected. This is something Republicans have put a fair amount of effort trying to push through only to see voters completely reject it. Unlike the SC race their is no candidate quality argument made for this vote; you more or less had a significant number of voters stating their disproval for Walker. Sure Walker won’t do worse then 45% but still if I was him I would be concerned about my re-election chances.

[Holmes]

Dane really did pull its weight in this race and then some.

[Boston Bread]

From Miles, Dallet won WI-08 (Northeast) but lost WI-01 (Ryan's district)
https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman

[Dr. Arch]

Dane County alone is outvoting every Screnock county in the state combined by around 23,000 votes right now.

Good thing it "doesn't matter," per our newest resident troll hack.

[Xing]

A lot of the remaining vote is from Madison, so this will probably end up around 12-13% in favor of Dallet. Funny, Atlas told me Wisconsin was gone for Democrats, and that they'd sooner win Georgia...

[Dr. Arch]

A lot of the remaining vote is from Madison, so this will probably end up around 12-13% in favor of Dallet. Funny, Atlas told me Wisconsin was gone for Democrats, and that they'd sooner win Georgia...

Certainly felt that way locally Also, I would like to note that tonight's results in SW Wisconsin bode extremely well for performance in IA-01 come November.

[Gass3268]

Dane County ended at 80.9% for Dallet

[Boston Bread]

Dane County being at 88% seemed to a glitch, because now it's 100% without any new votes.

[Koharu]

Everyone I voted for today won their race. Today has been a very good day.

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/981378596995588099

[Boston Bread]

Swing maps:
https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/981395122217738242

[Dr. Arch]

Final map in non-Atlas colors, courtesy of Miles:

Rebecca Dallet    554,841    56% (+12)
Michael Screnock    439,856    44%
100% Reporting