Wisconsin Megathread

[Dr. Arch]

We wanted a Gubernatorial candidate? Well we have one now:

Bob Harlow, last ran for US House in California in the 18th District. 

https://ballotpedia.org/Bob_Harlow

One of his main points is a bullet train, which I do like:

http://thepointeruwsp.com/2017/02/03/bullet-train-proposal-races-for-voter-attention/

Yeah, I talked about him earlier, but people say he's a perennial candidate. No real chatter on him has picked up yet so he has to get to work asap.

[Wiz in Wis]

I made this for giggles... May have an error or two.

Red Evers, Blue Holtz.

That's a landslide in Wisconsin if I've ever seen one.

Kohl in 06, won every county.

That's the election I used as a template for this picture. Oddly, Evers had a higher vote share (70%) than Kohl did (67%). Evers ran 12 points ahead of Kohl in Dane County.

Again, the marginal turnout rates by county here is quite fascinating. In 06, there were about 33% more total votes in Milwaukee County than in Dane County, and Dane county only had about 22% more votes than Waukesha County. In 17, there were about 14% more votes cast in Dane County than in Milwaukee County... and more than 140% more than in Waukesha County.

The anti-Trump elite in Madison showed up... in droves.

I believe the turnout was 8.67% which is really, really pathetic. Weird results will happen.

Amazingly... 8.67% is quite a bit higher than normal for this primary, especially considering that there was no contested Supreme Court race.

Turnout in the past three primaries for state superintendent was just 5.9 percent. The past five primaries with a Supreme Court race wasn’t much better at just 7.3 percent.

So... yes, this is clearly a low turnout election... in which we saw about 30% higher turnout than normal.

http://fox6now.com/2017/02/14/wisconsin-elections-commission-not-predicting-turnout-for-spring-primary-election/

http://fox6now.com/2017/02/22/turnout-hits-8-percent-in-wisconsin-superintendent-race/

[henster]

Walker is running for a third term in a midterm where his party is in power with a likely unpopular President, Ds appear to be energized they should go all out. There is a real thing as voter fatigue after two terms people want change in any state.

[Deblano]

Walker is running for a third term in a midterm where his party is in power with a likely unpopular President, Ds appear to be energized they should go all out. There is a real thing as voter fatigue after two terms people want change in any state.

Never doubt the Wisconsin Democrat's ability to screw up a good opportunity.

[Dr. Arch]

Walker is running for a third term in a midterm where his party is in power with a likely unpopular President, Ds appear to be energized they should go all out. There is a real thing as voter fatigue after two terms people want change in any state.

Never doubt the Wisconsin Democrat's ability to screw up a good opportunity.

[Gass3268]

Breaking: Ron Kind will NOT run for Governor in 2018

[Dr. Arch]

Breaking: Ron Kind will NOT run for Governor in 2018

Welp. There goes the best recruit.

[MasterJedi]

Former State Senator Tim Cullen said he's running.

[Gass3268]

Former State Senator Tim Cullen said he's running.

Ugh, he's kind of an ass.

[Littlefinger]

Is State Sen Kathleen Vinehout the top target for Dems now? Is she on the same tier of candidate as Kind would have been?

[KingSweden]

Breaking: Ron Kind will NOT run for Governor in 2018

Welp. There goes the best recruit.

Thoughts on Parisi? A County Exec is usually a good stepping stone to Governor

[The Other Castro]

Walker keeps winning ---> No big candidates want to run ---> Walker wins again ---> Repeat

[Dr. Arch]

Breaking: Ron Kind will NOT run for Governor in 2018

Welp. There goes the best recruit.

Thoughts on Parisi? A County Exec is usually a good stepping stone to Governor

Complete unknown even to most in Dane County. In theory, yes, a CE is a good stepping stone, but not from Dane County in the current local environment. There is no bench at this point. Anyone else is way below Kind, tier-wise. Pocan could be good, but he runs into the same Dane county vs the rest of the state problem.

I honestly don't know at this point.

[Gass3268]

Breaking: Ron Kind will NOT run for Governor in 2018

Welp. There goes the best recruit.

Thoughts on Parisi? A County Exec is usually a good stepping stone to Governor

Complete unknown even to most in Dane County. In theory, yes, a CE is a good stepping stone, but not from Dane County in the current local environment. There is no bench at this point. Anyone else is way below Kind, tier-wise. Pocan could be good, but he runs into the same Dane county vs the rest of the state problem.

I honestly don't know at this point.

That didn't stop Tammy Baldwin.

Vinehout is probably the best bet however.

[Dr. Arch]

Breaking: Ron Kind will NOT run for Governor in 2018

Welp. There goes the best recruit.

Thoughts on Parisi? A County Exec is usually a good stepping stone to Governor

Complete unknown even to most in Dane County. In theory, yes, a CE is a good stepping stone, but not from Dane County in the current local environment. There is no bench at this point. Anyone else is way below Kind, tier-wise. Pocan could be good, but he runs into the same Dane county vs the rest of the state problem.

I honestly don't know at this point.

That didn't stop Tammy Baldwin.

Vinehout is probably the best bet however.

Perhaps. We're still too far away to tell. The Dems need to come up with a better strategy for the state. Maybe the change in leadership will help. We'll see.

[Wiz in Wis]

So long as it isn't Abele...

[Deblano]

Breaking: Ron Kind will NOT run for Governor in 2018

I congratulate Governor Scott Walker on a third term!

(sarcasm)

[Blackacre]

First Tim Ryan, now this. What's going on?

[publicunofficial]

First Tim Ryan, now this. What's going on?

...the same thing that happens every cycle?

This just in folks: I'm learning that neither Dave Reichert or Jim Matheson will run for Senate this cycle, either. Shocker I know.

[Gass3268]

Breaking: Ron Kind will NOT run for Governor in 2018

I congratulate Governor Scott Walker on a third term!

(sarcasm)

Yeah, I never got this meme. I mean if a school board member could keep the margin to 6% in a wave year, surely he could lose in a even or negative year.

[Xing]

Wow, I knew the Democratic Party here was bad, but I didn't think it was FDP level bad. Why are so many Democrats running scared from an unpopular, controversial governor who won by single digits under very favorable conditions? It's not like funding is everything.

[Deblano]

Wow, I knew the Democratic Party here was bad, but I didn't think it was FDP level bad. Why are so many Democrats running scared from an unpopular, controversial governor who won by single digits under very favorable conditions? It's not like funding is everything.

There is virtually no energy or identity in the Democratic Party. Every election comes down to: "Well were not like those nuts on the right wing"

"VOTE FOR ME OR ELSE THE REPUBLICANS WILL WIN! WE HAVE NO VISION! WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WE WILL DO IF WE WIN, BUT IF THE OTHER SIDE WINS THEY WILL BRING THE APOCALYPSE! VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY!

This is exactly why I call myself an Independent. The only thing the two-party system cares about is gaining power, retaining power, and throwing a tantrum when their power is taken away.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wow, I knew the Democratic Party here was bad, but I didn't think it was FDP level bad. Why are so many Democrats running scared from an unpopular, controversial governor who won by single digits under very favorable conditions? It's not like funding is everything.

It isn't.  Ron Kind is not the only person capable beating Walker and Cullen won't be the nominee.

[Blackacre]

Honestly, I doubt Kind would have beaten Walker anyway. A lot of Democrats are probably scared after Johnson's and Trump's victory in WI last year. Still, I expect this race to get at least SOME attention, especially since the Senate race will be heavily contested as well. Baldwin should run ahead of whoever the Ds nominate for governor, but I wonder how much?

And winning by 6 and 7 points in a state as polarized as WI is not a bad showing at all IMO, especially considering that Walker has little crossover appeal.

The lesson Democrats should take from Johnson's victory in WI last year is as follows: DO NOT. REFUSE. SUPER PAC. MONEY.

[LabourJersey]

I personally think the idea that "THIS IS THE ONLY MAN/WOMAN WHO CAN WIN" when it comes to elections is both unnecessary and harmful for Democrats. I don't know much about WI politics, but I find it also impossible to believe that Kind is the only democrat in the entire state who can beat someone like Walker. Also I genuinely think it's a self fulfilling prophecy when you think a competitive candidate is going to lose--volunteers dry up, people are less likely to donate, etc.

If Trump is sufficiently unpopular, I think people are going to vote against the GOP anyway, regardless of who is the nominee. Nominees do matter, but at the end of the day most people are just going to notice the "D" or the "R" next to the name.