Estonian Elections March 4

[Verily]

That poll would be a disaster for Rahvaliit, which won 13% last election.

2003
Centre Party: 25.4%, 28 seats --- Keskerakond
Union for the Republic: 24.6%, 28 seats --- Res Publica (now combined with Isamaaliit)
Reform Party: 17.7%, 19 seats --- Reformierakond
People's Union: 13.0%, 13 seats --- Rahvaliit
Pro Patria Union: 7.3%, 7 seats --- Isamaaliit (now combined with Res Publica)
Moderate People's Party: 7.0%, 6 seats --- Rahvaerakond Mõõdukad

EER did not contest the last election, and the Social Democrats were irrelevant, pulling only 0.42%.

[Verily]

Looks like Reform got most of the benefit of the collapse of Res Publica-Pro Patria; that's not surprising, given that it's the most conservative of the governing parties. It's not entirely clear what the next government will be, though; will the coalition continue? (If so, will the Prime Minister change to reflect Reform's new status as the largest party?)

[Verily]

Numerically possible combos:

2 party government:
Reformierakond (RE), Reform, 31 seats
Keskerakond (K), Centre Party,29 seats

3 party government:
Reformierakond (RE), Reform, 31 seats
Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit (IRL), Pro Patria and Res Publica Union, 19 seats
any smaller party

Keskerakond (K), Centre Party, 29 seats
Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit (IRL), Pro Patria and Res Publica Union, 19 seats
any smaller party

4 party governments:
Reformierakond (RE), Reform, 31 seats
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (SDE), Social Democratic Party, 10 seats
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (EER), Estonian Green Party, 6 seats
Rahvaliit (ERL), Estionian People's Union, 6 seats

Keskerakond (K), Centre Party, 29 seats
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (SDE), Social Democratic Party, 10 seats
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (EER), Estonian Green Party, 6 seats
Rahvaliit (ERL), Estionian People's Union, 6 seats

Any government is going to have to have one of these five combinations plus any other parties that may be included for other reasons.

The only ones of those I can see happening are RE-K or K-SDE-EER-ERL. No one will want to form a coalition with the losing party (IRL), and none of the smaller parties would support a government with IRL in it anyway except the slight possibility of the Greens. (An IRL-containing government would have to be RE-IRL, but that's only a minority.)

[Verily]

IRL didn't win a single province? Ouch...