Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[ag]

Looks like in SD-08 they are waiting to see how much Darling needs out of the suburbs.  

Considering the way elections have been run in Waukeesha, I wouldn't be surprised.

[ag]

Fond du Lac has the results on its web page. Hopper is ahead by 1865 votes. So, all now depends on Winnebago.

[ag]

W/ some Winnebago precincts reporting, Hopper is now ahead by 576 votes. 23 precincts from Winnebago is all that's remaining

[ag]

Well, Darling should make it: but why aren't they counting? If it all comes again to Waukeesha reporting last (and finding enough votes to resolve the election), somebody in the county government should be run out of the state.

No, I am not suggesting cheating: I am suggesting incompetence.

[ag]

With 18 Winnebago precincts all that's left, Hopper is ahead by 534 votes. This might drag.

[ag]

14 precincts left in Winnebago and King's ahead by 137 votes. Dems might have 2.

[ag]

With 18 Winnebago precincts all that's left, Hopper is ahead by 534 votes. This might drag.

With 14 more to go, King is ahead by less than 200, so maybe a recount?

Actually, if the rest of Winnebago goes as what we've seen, King might make it without recount. Though, of course, the early Winnebago precicnts went for Hopper.

[ag]

Shilling's been declared winner. W/ quite a bit yet to go she's at 55%.

[ag]

2 more precincts from Milwaukee, and Darling has actually cut her opponent's lead to under 2500. She should make it.

But just imagine if Pasch is still ahead when all but Waukeesha has reported, and the last batch of Waukeesha voters overturns that.

And, of course, the county clerk is insisting that she is following the same reporting procedure that has served her so well in April.

[ag]

A biggish dump from Milwaukee (and couple precincts from Ozaukee as well): Pasch's lead is up to almost 5000 votes. 15 precincts from Milwaukee and 20 precincts from the suburbs (including 10 from Waukeesha) left.

[ag]

Yep 15 in Milwaukee and 15 in the suburubs (Ozaukee has also reported one of those that had been remaining), but Pasch's lead is under 1000 votes now. And those 10 Waukeesha precincts should take Darling over.

[ag]

I guess, Republicans will hold majority by a whisker: the size of that whisker will be determined by county clerk Nikolaus doing her algebra.

[ag]

If the final precincts in SD-08 vote the way the counted precincts vote, Darling stands to pick up a net of just 26 votes.  If Darling mysteriously pulls into the lead, if I were Pasch, I would seriously talk to my lawyers as soon as possible.  

Suburban precincts seem to be simply bigger. But, of course, Waukeesha is making itself a laughing stock once again.

1 more precinct has just reported in Winnebago: suddenly King is quite a bit ahead.

[ag]

This is a serious question - why would her pulling into the lead with Waukesha still out be a legal issue - its one of her strongholds?

Well, there are 10/11 precincts left in Waukeesha, 5/11 in Ozaukee and 15/51 in Milwaukee. Milwaukee isn't her stronghold, is it?

However, the main problem seems to be that Waukeesha has a particularly incompetent county clerk who is insisting on using extremely strange reporting procedures.

[ag]

Seems like Darling is to pick another 600 votes from just 1 precinct in Ozaukee.

[ag]

So, it seems, Darling should make it: but, in the end, there also those 12 precincts left in Milwaukee.

[ag]

According to Sykes Darling has an unreported margin of 5000 votes in Waukesha - JS has been sitting on it.

There were only 597 votes cast total in the one of 11 (so one would think about 1/11) precincts in Waukesha, so I find that doubtful.  Of course, that precinct could have been a small township.

It is not unlikely. Waukeesha part of the district has about 32000 residents, according to the census. So, w/ about 3000 residents per precinct, it is not unlikely that there will be closer to 1000 votes.

[ag]

With 10 Waukeesha, 4 Ozaukee and 12 Milwaukee precincts left, Pasch's ahead by 1111 votes.

I guess, Darling should indeed make it: assuming no surprises from Milwaukee.

[ag]

All of the 18th has reported. King won by around 1250 votes: should be outside the recount territory.

[ag]

In the end, Kapanke is loosing badly. With all that's left being 12 precincts in La Crosse, he is down 44% to 56%. So, it may even be bigger than that.

[ag]

The 14 out of 15 precincts left in Waukesha are hyper GOP, and yes, the one reported (in Butler) is a tiny precinct. I know from my Wisconsin mapping.  Game over.

Well, we don't know what's left in Milwaukee, do we?

[ag]

The 14 out of 15 precincts left in Waukesha are hyper GOP, and yes, the one reported (in Butler) is a tiny precinct. I know from my Wisconsin mapping.  Game over.

The other interesting thing: Nikolaus has been saying she is not posting town-by-town results and I can't find the link on her page. But here is the file.

[ag]

Butler has 1841 residents, according to the census.  Menomonee Falls has 30,183 residents. It went 59.4% McCain. So it will be a huge tally for Darling - the question is, what's left in Milwaukee.

Also, it looks like another 500 votes is about to be added to Darling's tally from Ozaukee. Yeah, she should make it.

[ag]

Some people are saying she's just dedicated, not so much incompetent.  They are also saying its a tactic so that dems can't miraculously find votes in Milwaukee at the last minute.

I think she's just darn slow.

She is so dedicated, she has invented her own results reporting procedure, that happens to be surprisingly untransparent.

Anyway, she's just reported 10/11 precincts. Darling is ahead by about 2600 votes, which will become about 3000 when that Ozaukee precinct is entered. At which point, it will be 3 Ozaukee, 1 Waukeesha and 12 Milwaukee precincts to go. Darling should make to 51% in the end.

[ag]

Perhaps you're right.  During the supreme court vote, she seemed really nervous.  Not the kind of "i did something wrong and I know it" nervous.. but the "ooh sh**t... all the cameras" kind.
[/quote]

That is, incompetent nervous. Yeah, I don't think she is cheating: she just has no clue what she's doing.