Dems: Did you really think Kerry would win?

[Sam Spade]

It's funny, I suppose, that this poll is going a lot differently than the comments, so I'll be one of the few to be honest.

I did. I did on November 2nd. I did thanks to the exit polls, thanks to Tradesports. And people put their money where their mouth is - Tradesports clearly showed that I wasn't the only one fooled.

I did not on November 1st. I thought we were going to lose it unless we were going to be amazed by some sort of movement we never realized. A lot of Republicans said pollsters were significantly underestimating the GOP GOTV machine. They weren't. In the end, the polls were pretty much right. Bush would win solidly, but not hugely.

My general feeling was that Kerry could win, but not necessarily. I never thought that a Kerry win was certain. At some points, when Kerry was up nationally by a good margin, I thought he was in good shape.

Was I ever convinced Kerry would win? No way. Did I ever thing Kerry had the advantage? Absolutely.

And like anyone, no matter how much they talked, I was not certain who won until shortly after 7 PM PST.

Actually, I was one of the people who thought about 3PM in the afternoon, when Bush tanked on Tradesports that I should wager about $100 on him, remembering that the exit polls also screwed up bigtime in 2000 and could well do so again (Florida didn't look right, per my conversations with Vorlon).  Didn't do it.  Should've, could've....

Anyway, I thought most of the time that Kerry could win, not would.  I thought that Bush would win, had he put in a great performance in the 1st debate, but that didn't happen.  The Republican base was riled up all along, the Democrats not necessarily.  As Vorlon said, a +5% Republican lead could turn into +10% based on some of the turnout models.  But Bush blew the 1st debate and that never materialized.

The time when I became convinced Kerry would lose was about 9 PM (EST), when the Florida results became obvious through examining county totals.  Then I started to examine Ohio's and the numbers from Cuyahoga were not simply enough to pull through.  It was over then.