The 12 Mason Dixon polls

[Tender Branson]

http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/71766.html

Arizona -- Republican Sen. Jon Kyl led Democrat Jim Pederson, 49-41 percent, with 3 percent supporting another candidate and 7 percent undecided.

Maryland -- Democratic U.S. Rep. Ben Cardin led Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, 47-44 percent, with less than 1 percent favoring another candidate and 9 percent undecided.

Michigan -- Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow led Republican Mike Bouchard by 53-37 percent, with 3 percent supporting other candidates and 7 percent undecided.

Missouri -- Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill led incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent by 46-45 percent, with 2 percent supporting other candidates and 7 percent undecided.

Montana -- Republican Sen. Conrad Burns and Democrat Jon Tester, the state Senate president, were tied at 47 percent each, with 1 percent supporting another candidate and 5 percent undecided. Burns had been trailing through the fall.

New Jersey -- Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez led Republican Tom Kean Jr., a state senator, by 48-41 percent, his widest lead yet. He led earlier, 45-42 percent. Another 3 percent support other candidates and 8 percent are undecided.

Ohio -- Democrat Rep. Sherrod Brown led incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine by 50-44 percent, with 1 percent supporting another candidate and 5 percent undecided.

Pennsylvania -- Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer, led incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum by 52-39 percent, with 2 percent supporting other candidates and 7 percent undecided.

Rhode Island -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee led Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, 46-45 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Two weeks ago, Whitehouse led, 48-43.

Tennessee -- Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, led Democrat Rep. Harold Ford Jr. by 50-38 percent, with 3 percent supporting other candidates and 9 percent undecided. Corker took a narrow lead several weeks ago after trailing weeks before.

Virginia -- Democratic challenger James Webb led incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen, 46-45 percent. It's the first time Webb has ever held an edge in a Mason-Dixon poll.

Washington -- Incumbent Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell led Republican Mike McGavick, 54-38 percent, opening the widest lead she's held all fall. Another 7 percent were undecided, and 1 percent supported other candidates.

[Tender Branson]

 I find these polls pretty alarming. If we lose Rhode Island, Montana or Maryland - much less all three - it would be a disaster.

 I've heard that Mason Dixon is the most respected polling firm out there. What is the reasoning behind this if it is true?

I hope that the M-D poll in RI is what they got in MN in 2004. They got it wrong then. Whitehouse will slightly win I think.

In MD I still think Cardin will win.

MT - ? Could be the tightest race, together with MO and VA.

But gains are ahead I suppose - I think there´s no need to worry about PA and OH anymore. The Dems should have both in the pocket.

[Tender Branson]

Harry...no offence intended, but what does their MN result in 2004 have to do with anything?  Unless used to support the point that Mason-Dixon is not totally infalable...

I think that was just his point.

Exactly. I just thought, given all recent RI polls, that MD has produced some kind of an outlier here. They don´t have to be right on every race. Therefore the comparison with MN 2004. This has not to be the case though. MD could really be right and Chafee wins. It´s all in the MoE.