2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

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Given the growing metropolitan/nonmetropolitan polarization, it's not surprising to see Peterborough lose its "bellwether" status - it's just less and less representative of modern-day, diverse Canada. O'Toole also represents a nearby riding.

Well, bellwethers were always BS--and given the popular vote vs seat-count thing, one might argue whether P'boro already defied the bellwether in the *other* direction in '19.  So, a bit of a dovetail thing.

Plus, being a big city and all, P'boro's in a fuzzy territory btw/"metropolitan" and "nonmetropolitan"--not quite a glorified-outerburb a la Barrie, but also, at least momentarily, not quite a (Trent) campussy left-nucleus a la Guelph or Kingston.  So under a different circumstance, it could have tilted (and still could, in the future) out of bellwetherdom in the *other* direction, much like another longtime bellwether, Kitchener Centre.  (And it's interesting how in *both* those ridings this time, the final outcome was affected by incumbent controversy.)

Peterborough-Kawartha is still more of a "borderline" devil than seemingly out-of-sight cases like Brantford-Brant or Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte--unless the fall of Monsef terminally pricks a bubble in the local Liberal machine (and a lot of the baked-in permanent Conservative cast to SW Ontario ridings like Brantford-Brant has at least as much to do with the atrophy of local Liberal machines--basically, they've "thrown" the ridings to the Cons, even if on paper they *shouldn't* have.)

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re: P'boro -- I find it interesting that Bay of Quinte also flipped though. Could it be a regional thing?

Well, interesting in that it was the only Ontario geography to see Lib-to-CPC flips in '19 as well--Hastings-L&A + Northumberland-Peterborough S went then, and these two went now.  In fact, BoQ was a bit unique in Ontario in its '15-'19 lurch from "safe" to "supermarginal"; so that, plus the fact that it was "non-metropolitan" (unlike the GTA or even K-W), made it very low-hanging fruit or "unfinished business" for the Cons this time around.  What also helps is that BoQ's the home of CFB Trenton, where O'Toole's military background gives him some "native son" stature.

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re: P'boro -- I find it interesting that Bay of Quinte also flipped though. Could it be a regional thing?

BoQ was never a natural Liberal riding. It's roughly divided into three parts - Belleville, Quinte West, and Prince Edward County. All three are pretty distinct, and the poll-by-poll maps tell the story.

Belleville is the most urban, working-class, and low-income of the three, so naturally the least CPC-inclined part. In 2015, the Liberals ran Belleville mayor Neil Ellis - this in addition to Trudeaumania and Harper fatigue meant that Belleville was swept by the LPC, winning every poll, and by huge margins at that. In 2019, we start to see more CPC polls emerge and Ellis margins narrow, as Ontario sans GTA shifted Conservative generally.

Quinte West - slightly less urban, slightly higher income. In 2015, LPC won the most polls but CPC was competitive, in 2019, CPC won most polls but LPC was competitive. Same story as Belleville, but smaller Liberal base to begin with.

Prince Edward County - lots of retirees, lots of tourism. Ergo, lots of Liberals. To be fair, retirees can go either LPC or CPC, but in the context of rural Ontario, they probably shift a riding Liberal. As for the "touristy" factor, the tourism industry almost always benefits the Grits. 2015 and 2019 poll-by-polls showed a continued Liberal dominance in Prince Edward County.

My guess is that Prince Edward stayed the same, possibly even more Liberal as retirees seem to be moving more to the LPC. However, the Tory trend in rural and small-city Ontario has continued, and I think O'Toole is a pretty natural fit. I'd expect the poll-by-polls to show Tory polls outnumbering Liberal polls in Belleville, giving BoQ to them.

NB: the provincial territory's been reasonably solidly held by the PCs' Todd Smith since 2011--well, most of it; Quinte West had been bunched w/Northumberland pre-2018, and that also went Tory in 2011 but bounced back to the Libs for a term in 2014.

Though there is a kind of quasi-natural "Loyalist Liberalism" that can tie Quinte environs into Greater Kingston (and indeed, which unexpectedly swayed Hastings-L&A in the Lib direction in '15).

While urbanity definitely plays a part in Belleville's Liberal inclinations, given the trajectory of things I'm no longer so sure whether working-class/low-income is so much a part of it all--indeed, the most Lib/non-Con-leaning parts of Belleville tend to be more middle/upper these days.  It's a "regional hub", and that has a way of inducing a Lib-leaning Laurentian cosmopolitanism.

Quinte West, as aforementioned, is very much coloured by CFB Trenton, where O'Toole was stationed in his military years.  And while Trenton proper has its own working-class scrappiness, any Liberal oxygen that could generate has lately been squeeze-played by the "military town" element.  Plus, Quinte West is one of those Harris-era megamunicipalities, so most of it happens to be rural/exurban.

PEC is sort of "tripartite".  The tourist economy (but also, in the case of Picton, "small urbanity") does give the Libs more of a boost than is usual in rural Ontario these days; nonetheless, I can see what's left of "old PEC" shifting further to the right in keeping with broader rural Ontario trends, perhaps even by way of reaction to the influx.  And the third element to that "tripartite" is that of PEC as part of the urban Quinte commuter belt--that is, Ameliasburgh serving as a "desirable" Belleville/Trenton exurb; and I can picture that element shifting rightward, too (it was already the "bluest" part of PEC in '19).

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I think you're right that the bulk of the LPC base in Belleville is probably more "white-collar Laurentian" than "working-class small town" at this point. I was thinking more 2015 when it seemed like class was a major dividing point. More well-off parts of the GTA (along with ethnic factors for the Chinese and Jewish votes in some ridings) had a great Tory showing in 2015 - note how Eglinton-Lawrence was the CPC's second-best 416 riding, probably a combination of the Jewish vote, Joe Oliver, and the wealthy demographic. Meanwhile, more rugged smaller cities in Southern Ontario went hard for the LPC.

In a convoluted way, that echoes the S Ontario "free trade populism" patterns in 1988--the strongest (i.e. clear majority) Tory places tended to be well-heeled GTA seats, while it was in the heartland that the Libs scored most of their upsets and near-upsets.  (Which might also have been a last gasp of the Robarts/Davis-era "Big Blue Machine" dynamic, where the Tories were the urban cosmopolitans and seemingly to the left of the rural/small-town-based Liberals.)

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True, although it seems in GTA the more white upper middle class areas Tories improved and while fell short they did better in those than more working class diverse areas.  Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Oakville, and Burlington all examples of this.  By contrast Ford may have won most of those but underperformed and did better more in the diverse working class areas.  Etobicoke North, Scarborough North just two examples of areas Ford won massively in, but O'Toole got clobbered in.  Even in Mississauga, O'Toole's best riding was Mississauga-Lakeshore while in last Ontario election, that was the best one for OLP and closest.  So perhaps O'Toole's moderation did help him with upper middle class whites but not enough to flip ridings and also with GTA being very diverse unlike in 80s so Tories need to find a way to do better with visible minorities if they wish to breakthrough in the GTA.

It's worth noting that in the 2014 provincial election, the Tim Hudak PCs got clobbered for their promise to kill civil service jobs--but where *they* improved their lot (and again, not enough to win) was in "monied" neighbourhoods; so a riding like Etobicoke Centre had more of an emphatic "blue donut hole" than it did in '11...

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True, although it seems in GTA the more white upper middle class areas Tories improved and while fell short they did better in those than more working class diverse areas.  Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Oakville, and Burlington all examples of this.  By contrast Ford may have won most of those but underperformed and did better more in the diverse working class areas.  Etobicoke North, Scarborough North just two examples of areas Ford won massively in, but O'Toole got clobbered in.  Even in Mississauga, O'Toole's best riding was Mississauga-Lakeshore while in last Ontario election, that was the best one for OLP and closest.  So perhaps O'Toole's moderation did help him with upper middle class whites but not enough to flip ridings and also with GTA being very diverse unlike in 80s so Tories need to find a way to do better with visible minorities if they wish to breakthrough in the GTA.

It's worth noting that in the 2014 provincial election, the Tim Hudak PCs got clobbered for their promise to kill civil service jobs--but where *they* improved their lot (and again, not enough to win) was in "monied" neighbourhoods; so a riding like Etobicoke Centre had more of an emphatic "blue donut hole" than it did in '11...

My guess is taxes.  With huge deficit, most with money figure they are on the firing line for higher taxes.  True Liberal platform only promised to limit deductions on high earners, not raise rates, but many probably figure they will get hit with higher rates and also won't just be those in top bracket (who aren't large enough anywhere to really swing any ridings) but probably top three brackets and in those ridings you have lots in the 26% bracket.  Also perhaps fear of a home equity tax too even though Liberals have repeatedly ruled it out, nonetheless those who are home owners might worry about it especially if property has high value as opposed to renters who won't care.

One thing to note about those Con gains-but-not-enough, whether provincially in '14 or federally in '21: it'd seem that the biggest problem w/a platform and leadership that plays best among the 1% is that even in the most 1%-infused ridings, there isn't enough 1% to go around.  It's a "rich rump"; a gated electoral enclave....

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Our best swings were in Newfoundland and and Northern Ontario. Not exactly the Bridle Path lol

True, but my point is more about the urban/metropolitan seat conundrum.

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I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands) trend Liberal.

More immediately, I'd assume that's mostly just picking off the entrails of the Green vote.

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In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

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In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

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This also fed into a lot of the missed seat projections - far from the Liberals solely being resilient in Ontario, it was assumed in 2019 and this year that seats like Richmond Hill, Newmarket-Aurora and Whitby had to go back to the CPC because they were close in 2015 - when there were other dynamics at play. Of course the CPC did return to that somewhat it seems this year but not in the same numbers.

Though Whitby wasn't "close" in quite the same way in '19.  What probably hardwired the "had to go back" party line was its being within O'Toole's political orbit, together with Jim Flaherty's tenure making Whitby look more "naturally" Conservative than it is...

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I'm sure it would take longer, but I can also see urban Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and even Saanich and the Islands) trend Liberal.

More immediately, I'd assume that's mostly just picking off the entrails of the Green vote.

I suspect a lot of it are people who used to vote for the provincial Liberals but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.  That also seems to be the case for many of the people in Greater Vancouver who voted Liberal provincially up to 2013 but voted NDP in 2017 and 2020.

All the same, I wouldn't make too much of a "trending Liberal" pattern, because that'd simply be picking up where the noughts left off (David Anderson's federal tenure, Keith Martin's party switch, the Saanich-GI 2008 result).  And it'd be mostly a matter of sucking up the energy of the Greens as well as that of a no-longer-palatable-around-these-parts Conservative party--that is, Victoria and environs turning into another Guelph or Kingston--but also, maybe, some kind of 90s-style "federal NDP = useless" epiphany to seal the deal...

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In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

... CBC needs update their site! Thanks!

The whole Northern Ontario circumstance really is looking ominous--the one thing momentarily standing in the way of a rightward earthquake is the federal Libs' endurance; they're still absorbing a lot of that "in-between" energy that might otherwise lurch in the Con direction, much as PPC's absorbing the fringe energy.  But once *any* of that goes blue, it might be hard to retrieve.

In some ways, the present 3-way dynamic reminds me of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in the 90s, when they hadn't gone "all in" for Reform yet--but once they did w/the successor Alliance/Conservative parties, they *really* did...

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One interesting observation is Madawaska area of New Brunswick.  It seems like Canadian and American sides which are closely connected and many have family on both sides moving in opposite directions.  A decade ago, Tories held Madawaska County both federally and provincially, while now getting clobbered at both levels.  By contrast on US side, Obama was winning this area by massive margins, around 2/3 of vote.  On other hand Trump both times either won many communities on American side or came very close.  Any reason why they are going in exact opposite direction as while US different country it seems most border states following similar trends to Canadian counterparts?

Would it not be because of the unique identity - that area is 90% Francophone I believe and the same applies across the rest of Francophone New Brunswick. Whereas that part of Maine is just a more Conservative part of rural New England. Whereas the equivalent conservative (small c) part of New Brunswick is the area covered by Tobique Mactaquac.

For Madawaska's recent Conservative strength, you can blame the personal machine of Bernard Valcourt, who was an electoral asset...until he wasn't (in 2015).  And they're still recoiling from that.

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The whole Northern Ontario circumstance really is looking ominous--the one thing momentarily standing in the way of a rightward earthquake is the federal Libs' endurance; they're still absorbing a lot of that "in-between" energy that might otherwise lurch in the Con direction, much as PPC's absorbing the fringe energy.  But once *any* of that goes blue, it might be hard to retrieve.

In some ways, the present 3-way dynamic reminds me of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in the 90s, when they hadn't gone "all in" for Reform yet--but once they did w/the successor Alliance/Conservative parties, they *really* did...

There is definitely a trend of people in remote communities to the Conservatives, but what would likely hold that back are the large amount of unionized private sector workers and the large indigenous populations in Northern Ontario.

Not sure about unions.  While unionized workers tend to lean left, that is largely due to public sector union members which for obvious reasons don't vote Conservative.  But amongst private sector union members, I believe Tories are quite competitive.  Not sure if won this or not, but definitely much stronger than in past.  After all private sector union members are disproportionately white males over 50 without a college degree and that group has trended rightward throughout developed world.  Public sector union members more likely to live in cities, more women than men, and tend to be fairly ethnically diverse too as well as most usually have a post secondary degree. 

Now agree on indigenous although Kenora has largest indigenous population and went Tory.  I think bigger problem there is turnout tends to be very low amongst indigenous voters thus why Tories can win ridings like Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River which they would have no hope at winning if indigenous voters turned out in similar numbers to white voters and ditto Kenora.  One big one holding it back though is Francophone voters however.  While Harper did reasonably well amongst Francophones outside Quebec, O'Toole did horrible here.  Predominately Francophone ridings in New Brunswick were the Tories worst showings in Atlantic Canada outside Halifax and St. John's while only predominately rural riding Liberals won in Southern Ontario was Glengarry-Prescott-Russell which is majority Francophone.  I think both Ford's cuts to French language services and Blaine Higgs being unilingual had a negative spillover federally. 

Yeah, if unions were such a negative thing, then Oshawa wouldn't be eternally, stubbornly (if often marginally or semi-marginally) Conservative, nor would Windsor/Essex be trending in that direction.

And as for indigenous: yes, Kenora should stand as a warning.  And as for Francophone: that, too, is a patchy thing in Northern Ontario--there isn't anything as sweeping and monolithic as Acadian New Brunswick up there--and it didn't prevent ridings like Nickel Belt or Timmins-James Bay from giving a united-right plurality.  Indeed, the presence of Francophone and FN forces could further motivate the right to "counter-vote" the rest...

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Disagree on the private sector unions, even if private sector union workers don't vote Liberal they would likely be far more likely to vote Conservative if not unionized, but many of them vote NDP.  So, in a number of ridings, these voters being in unions likely does prevent the Conservatives from winning those ridings.  I think we also see in those two ridings held by the NDP in Northern Ontario as well as in the Skeena-Bulkley Valley Riding and in some of the ridings in more rural/remote Northern Vancouver Island that private sector unions can deliver ridings to the NDP.

True, but note the reduced margins in Skeena and North Island as well as Charlie Angus's swooning share.  There's vulnerability around the edges.

That said, you're correct in that there *is* a never-say-never resilience to the NDP, so I wouldn't write things off for them completely or terminally--it helps that unlike Labour in Britain, they've never carried the stigma of being a federal "party of government".  And hey--in Oshawa, their share remained stable, and the Con share went up less than a point, even though O'Toole's next door.  If there's anyplace that's primed to put the "red wall breach" to the test, it's Canada--sort of like how a 2016-style populist Berniecrat would have a better chance in Iron Range Minnesota than a rank-and-file mainstream Dem or an overly woke/millennial AOC type.  (All it requires is augmenting Jagmeet's existing base in the latter.)

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In the specific case of Kenora, it's worth remembering that it's the only place in the country with a genuine Lib-Lab tradition. Bob Nault made use of this during his political career, and even though the Liberal vote fell off this time around it presumably still has an impact.

It does have that tradition; but it's hard to tell how much use that was after Nault's first election in 1988--with the Chretien effect raising all Liberal ships in Ontario, and w/the NDP remaining at least 20% in all subsequent elections except 1993, it might be argued that "Lib-Lab" became but a unite-the-left-under-the-Libs affectation by that point, little different from, say, Sheila Copps Liberalism in Hamilton.  And maybe the strongest demonstration of the declining value of "Lib-Lab" is how the provincial territorial dynamic flipped into an NDP-PC binary under Howard Hampton and successors this century--and even the present weak Lib result might be seen as an "organic" echo of that.

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Some ridings where the NDP vote increased significantly:

Vancouver-Granville  +20.4
Edmonton-Griesbach  +14.9
Spadina-Fort York  +14.4
Halifax  +9.6
Guelph  +8.8
Edmonton Centre  +8.4
Parkdale-High Park  +7.7
Vancouver Centre  +6.8
Kingston and the Islands  +6.0

They did well in inner city districts and university towns

Some might be a "this election-fluke"
- Spadina-Fort York -> we know the last minute mess with the LPC candidate and his sexual harassment and million dollar lawsuit helped push voters to the NDP. HAD this happened a week or more out from the election instead of days... the NDP might have been able to win.

-Vancouver-Granville -> similar story in that the LPC candidate got rightfully trashed for his business dealings, and this was an open seat so we really didn't know how Wilson-Raybould's vote would spread. This riding has only been around since 2015. LPC picked up 8%, NDP picked up 21%, CPC picked up 6.

- Vancouver Centre and Guelph are interesting; In both ridings it was a repeat of 2019, same candidates for both the NDP and LPC. It looks like here we see the Greens swinging harder to the NDP (or not voting at all). Kingston the Green Candidate stepped down and endorsed the NDP so again, I think much of the vote increase is a return-home of NDP-Green voters in 2019. 

Granville would probably have had a significant NDP uptick anyway; judging from their 2nd place finish in '15, JWR took a lot of their vote in '19.

Newfoundland: probably deflated by, among other things, Alison Coffin hitting a brick wall last provincial election.

Halifax a clear Green-implosion beneficiary.

In QC, of course, you can tell which seats no longer had "incumbent advantage" the way they did in '19.

Windsor: Pupatello's sloppy-second run played into Masse's hands.

Humber River-Black Creek: they had a star candidate in '19 (former councillor Maria Augimeri).

Hamilton: seems like a swing-to for the white-collar and "gentrifiable", a swing-against for the blue-collar and "ungentrifiable".

Wow w/the Nickel Belt/Timmins/Churchill/Desnethe.

And there's a pair of standout significant-risers in BC you shouldn't forget: Kamloops (up 15.3%; making up for candidate catastrophe in '19) and West Van et al (11 3/4%; the "Avi effect")

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Who do you think most NHL players and coaches voted for? Liberal? Tories? Stayed home?

Most NHLers I suspect are Conservative. Bobby Orr endorsed Trump, and Gretzky is a well known Conservative.

However, there have been some Liberal hockey players in the past. Ken Dryden was an MP, and Frank Mahovlich was a Senator.

Don't forget Red Kelly either, who was a Grit MP during the Pearson years.

Or Lionel Conacher.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lionel_Conacher

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The decline of the NDP in the industrial centers of Ontario is really quite striking.  Charlie Angus down to 35%.  Third place in Nickel Belt for the first time since the 1960s.  Third place in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. The old working class "labor party" constituency has eroded.

I mean, I'm sure all the places you mentioned have changed quite a bit over the decades, but the provincial party, which is famously very competent and not at all a human disaster, still wins them all without too much trouble, so maybe, just maybe this line, which gets wheeled out every time a social democratic party does badly, does not cover all the factors involved.

And indeed, it's hard to see the *provincial* Nickel Belt falling or under threat except in a 1995 circumstance.  On such grounds, the erosion carries an aura of being not necessarily terminal--nonetheless, when it comes to all the mewling about Quebec being lost under Jagmeet, maybe more must be said about the blue-collar "red wall Labour" vote being neglected under Jagmeet.  Or as I've put it, those who want "meat and potatoes" issues addressed without arbitrary "Punjabi" stunting on behalf of the TikTok crowd...

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Liberals were also hit with a similar phenomenon in Greater Montreal. Looks like they made gains on the North Shore (where they were never going to win many seats), and the islands of Montreal and Laval (where they were always going to dominate). But the part of Greater Montreal where they could have picked up seats, the South Shore/Montérégie, swung towards the Bloc.

Though one standout deeper-shade-of-red North Shore case was Terrebonne, where the deselected Bloc incumbent ran as an independent.  (In total, there would have been a much more modest swing on the Libs behalf--and the Lib vote was basically static at just under 30%)

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Also looks like Tories despite not gaining, did see swings in their favour in parts of country they need to gain, namely Ontario, some parts of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even some areas in BC.  By contrast seems strongest swings away from them were Prairies where they could afford to lose lots of votes with few seats.  Interestingly enough in Ontario, race was closer than 2006 when Harper came to power and that election it was a 4.8 point spread between two parties with Liberals ahead while in 2021 it was a 4.3 spread.  Yet in 2006 it was 54 Liberals to 40 Tories out of 106 seats while in 2021 it was 37 to 77 out of 121 seats.  So seems results vote wise similar in Ontario to 2006, but Liberals way more efficient in 2021 than 2006.

Also wonder anybody have turnout numbers by riding.  Just looking at seat difference compared to vote, I cannot help but think turnout was much lower in GTA and urban ridings than rural ones so similar phenomenon to UK 2005 where Labour beat Tories by only 3%, yet got double the seats for this reason.

In Ontario, think of it as ruling-government incumbency, further urban-rural sorting (i.e. "metropolitan" seats in the outer GTA and Greater Ottawa and K-W-type places in SW Ontario being more thoroughly out of reach), the decline of the NDP and so-far lack of CPC seat gains in N Ontario, and the simple fact that there are so many more "Liberal-type" suburban seats now, thanks to population growth and thanks to the Harper-era expansion of Commons, which was supposed to work in *his* favour but didn't.

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Interesting to see 13 of 25 NDP ridings are in BC, an absolute majority.
Has that ever happened before?

Yes - twice, in 1962 (10 of 19) & 1963 (9 of 17) - and it's come close a few other times (3 of 7 in 1935, 4 of 8 in 1958, 9 of 21 in 1965, 19 of 43 in 1988).

Not to mention 11 of 24 in '19 when it comes to closeness.

And then when it comes to lopsidedness, 5 of 9 in '93 were in Saskatchewan.

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Also looks like Tories despite not gaining, did see swings in their favour in parts of country they need to gain, namely Ontario, some parts of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and even some areas in BC.  By contrast seems strongest swings away from them were Prairies where they could afford to lose lots of votes with few seats.  Interestingly enough in Ontario, race was closer than 2006 when Harper came to power and that election it was a 4.8 point spread between two parties with Liberals ahead while in 2021 it was a 4.3 spread.  Yet in 2006 it was 54 Liberals to 40 Tories out of 106 seats while in 2021 it was 37 to 77 out of 121 seats.  So seems results vote wise similar in Ontario to 2006, but Liberals way more efficient in 2021 than 2006.

Also wonder anybody have turnout numbers by riding.  Just looking at seat difference compared to vote, I cannot help but think turnout was much lower in GTA and urban ridings than rural ones so similar phenomenon to UK 2005 where Labour beat Tories by only 3%, yet got double the seats for this reason.

In Ontario, think of it as ruling-government incumbency, further urban-rural sorting (i.e. "metropolitan" seats in the outer GTA and Greater Ottawa and K-W-type places in SW Ontario being more thoroughly out of reach), the decline of the NDP and so-far lack of CPC seat gains in N Ontario, and the simple fact that there are so many more "Liberal-type" suburban seats now, thanks to population growth and thanks to the Harper-era expansion of Commons, which was supposed to work in *his* favour but didn't.

True but with only a four point spread, only way I could see this happening is if turnout was much higher in rural areas than metro ones and if turnout were equal that would mean Liberals would have bigger popular vote lead.  Its not like rural Ontario Tories are running up the score like they do in Prairies.  They won those ridings but solid margins, but they aren't blowouts like in Prairies.  After all only got over 50% in 6 ridings in the entire province and that is quite a bit less than Liberals.  So that is why curious if turnout higher in rural areas and certainly possible as with pandemic people in cities perhaps more worried thus more reluctant to show up than in rural areas where people seem to be less worried about pandemic.

Again, a big factor might be the most recent redistribution, which not only reflected suburban growth but was meant to give the suburbs more weight--which is how Ontario leapt from 106 to 121 seats, a outsize "redistribution bump" intended to avoid monstrosities like the former Oak Ridges-Markham.  Because when all is said and done, the Cons only had a net drop of 3 seats from '06.

'06 Con seats which are (or their equivalents are) no longer Con:  St. Catharines, Halton, Burlington, Milton, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Whitby-Oshawa, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.  Present Con seats which weren't Con in '06:  Huron-Bruce, Brantford-Brant, Thornhill, Kenora--and I suppose King-Vaughan as the spawn of former Liberal seats.  And added seats in the Barrie and Quinte areas, and I have to figure what else there might be...

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Why the Tory swing around Quebec?

Because when it came to post-Orange Crush dynamics, the Conservatives, and not the Liberals, were already positioned as the default alternative in most of the Capitale-Nationale (w/the exception of Louis-Hebert and Quebec)