May 24 Washington state prediction thread (user search)
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  May 24 Washington state prediction thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: May 24 Washington state prediction thread  (Read 1594 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: May 21, 2016, 10:00:03 PM »

On the Democrat side I'll go out on a limb and say:

Hillary: 51%
Bernie: 49%

There is no reason to expect a Clinton victory here.

Really? Clinton performed in all closed primaries distinctly better than in 2008. Even in Oregon!
Furthermore, a "fake primary" doesn't attract many Bernie Bros., as you could see in Nebraska, where she won the closed fake primary distinctly.
I wouldn't bet any money, but I wouldn't be surprised either (after Nebraska) if Clinton really wins the Washington fake primary.

She did worse in the Washington caucus than she did in 2008, so I don't think it follows that she'll definitely do better in the beauty contest. Plus, it's not really "closed." You have to declare a party, but that's just a matter of checking a box. My sister-in-law is a Republican, and she voted for Bernie. There was about a 20-point shift in NE. I don't think a 47-point shift in Washington is that plausible. Anyway...

Trump - 62
Cruz - 19
Kasich - 16

Sanders - 53
Clinton - 45
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