🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

The final Peil.nl prognosis shows a three-way race, with GL/PvdA currently at 14, BBB at 12 and VVD at 12. This is their prognosis, with column "minimaal" at the lower end and "maximaal" at the higher end:



With this prognosis, the government could lose its majority even together with GL/PvdA but may keep it. For the government, this one is therefore more "optimistic" than the I&O one.

By province (in seats), with all polls next to each other (by column: PS19 election, EenVandaag/Ipoos poll, I&O poll, Peil poll):






BIJ1 doesn't take part in the elections - they have had lots of infighting since the local elections, with accusations of "anti-Muslim racism" on the other hand and "anti-black racism" on the other hand between the two warring factions. Sylvana Simons is often not present in parliament due to chronic illness and pain, but cannot temporarily give up her seat, as it would go to #2 Quinsy Gario, who left the party on bad terms. Therefore, they are less visible than perhaps possible and decided not to take the risk. BIJ1 have endorsed the Party for the Animals.

In Overijssel, DENK are not standing and have endorsed - quite interestingly - BBB.

[DavidB.]

Last Ipsos/EenVandaag poll (compared to Feb 28):

PvdA/GL 14 (+1)
BBB 13 (+4)
VVD 12 (-3)
PVV 8 (-1)
SP 5
CDA 5
D66 4 (-2)
PvdD 4
JA21 3
FVD 2
ChristenUnie 2
Volt 1
SGP 1
50Plus 1
DENK 0
OSF 0

Government 23
Government + GL/PvdA 37 (1 short of a majority)

Very bad poll for D66. Government in deep trouble.

[DavidB.]

Polling stations have opened and will close at 21:00. Exit polls will probably follow either directly or 15 minutes later.

Meanwhile, regional public transportation staff are striking for a better wage. If I were them I'd do it literally every day this month except for election day, but they're doing it today, which will make voting more difficult for some disabled people and elderly people. This decision has been heavily criticized and Interior Minister Hanke Bruins Slot (CDA), who is responsible for the electoral process, gave a statement saying she is disappointed. She calls on people to help others to make sure everyone can vote.

https://twitter.com/HankeBruinsSlot/status/1635733355743379481

[DavidB.]

So the evening will look as follows.

21:00: Polls close; exit poll for Noord-Holland
21:20: Exit poll for Overijssel
21:40: Exit poll for Noord-Brabant
22:00: Exit poll for Senate
22:30: Results for municipalites start coming in

After 1:30: Separate prognoses for all 12 Provincial States + Senate, based on actual results, with high level of reliability

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At 10:30, turnout was 8%, 1% higher than in 2019. Total turnout was 56% in 2019, which was relatively high compared to the Provincial elections in the years before - turnout used to be around 50%.

[DavidB.]

Turnout as of 5.45 pm is 37%, up 4% compared to 2019. If this continues then final turnout will hit 60%.

I also tend to say this will hurt the government, but this is not a given. The VVD, for example, had a very aggressive GOTV campaign - see the above "they will vote, will you do so too?" video. A substantial number of voters (think middle class and lower middle class, small towns and suburbs, law and order voters) are "VVD minded" and will vote VVD in general elections, but seldom turn out in second-order elections and had to be activated to do so.

Still think this will end up badly for the government. Would particularly like to see how much turnout went up in BBB areas in the North and the East.

Who are you voting for these days?

Depends, but went for JA21 this time. I found it important to vote for a party that wants to reduce immigration substantially and also supports Ukraine, with a mature view on the implications of war on our continent (no ruling out any type of support; no rhetoric about how support for Ukraine would go at the expense of the Dutch; open mind on deepening European cooperation regarding security and defense).

[DavidB.]

Wow. Overijssel:

BBB 31.3% - 17 (+17)
CDA 4 (-5)
VVD 4 (-2)
GL 4 (-1)
PvdA 3 (-1)
ChristenUnie 3 (-1)
PVV 2 (-1)
PvdD 2 (+1)
D66 2 (-1)
SGP 1 (-1)
JA21 1 (+1)
SP 1 (-2)
FVD 1 (-5)
Volt 1 (+1)
50Plus 1 (nc)

Brutal. Almost all parties in red. GL-PvdA also in red. CDA, FVD and SP decimated. BBB will be the biggest party nationally and in the Senate for sure.

Hard to see how the government survives this in the long run. Israel/Bulgaria scenario within 5 years.

[DavidB.]

Complete contrast with FVD 4 years ago. Van der Plas is continuously surrounded by other people from her party and does not lay out a soft of utopian, revolutionary vision, but continues to stay down to earth and talk like she could be your neighbor. She emphasizes that BBB will work together with others, but that things really have to change. "It's not just about nitrogen", she said, "it's about citizens not being heard anymore. It's about a train in The Hague that is going faster and faster. We're going to stop that train. We're going to put citizens at the center again."

BBB should end up at about 20% nationally, maybe more - a much bigger victory than the FVD one in 2019.

[DavidB.]

Senate exit poll shows majority for government + GL/PvdA: 39 seats (24 without GL/PvdA).

[DavidB.]

Senate exit poll shows majority for government + GL/PvdA: 39 seats (24 without GL/PvdA).

Wouldn't the VOLT party's 2 seats also fit in well with Gov't + GL/PVDA?

Yes, and SGP could prop them up too, and the next option would be the SP. It wouldn't be completely impossible. But realistically, the more partners needed, the more difficult it would get. At some point it would just get too much - also in terms of optics. GL/PvdA alone is still workable, they did it over the last years, they can do it now. GL/PvdA will act tough and extract very painful compromises which will cause VVD and CDA to bleed more, but it would work.

The only question is whether the CDA will pull the plug now. Their losses are absolutely historical. Any rational person would pull the plug (except... but do you want new elections now?), but some people are so far into "responsibility over party" mode that they are willing to sacrifice the party.

---

Mathematically, NL politics now has three blocs of the same size.

Center/coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU=24
Right-wing opposition: BBB+JA21+FVD+PVV+SGP=25
Left-wing opposition: GLPvdA+PvdD+Volt+SP=24

[DavidB.]

Rutte (VVD) minimizes the amount of change and emphasizes similarities with the past, Kaag (D66) is "satisfied" with her result (loss); Hoekstra (CDA), on the other hand, emphasizes that this is an electoral earthquake and that a torpedo has hit the coalition.

[DavidB.]

BBB now at 16 (instead of 15) in last Senate projection. ChristenUnie get two, a loss of 1 from the previous projection and 2 compared to the current Senate.

- Voter flowcharts compared to the 2021 parliamentary election can be found here, quite interesting: https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/ps2023/kiezersbewegingen/.
- All maps here: https://nos.nl/collectie/13923/artikel/2467604-bekijk-hier-alle-uitslagen-van-de-provinciale-statenverkiezingen.

Will post more stats later.

[DavidB.]

Map of biggest party by province in all PS elections since 1995. Utrecht "flipped" after counting Veenendaal - BBB is now the biggest party in all provinces. Of course, being the biggest party is only of relative importance in the Netherlands, with all its fragmentation. Still, I think it provides a striking view of the magnitude of BBB's victory:

https://twitter.com/lientje1967/status/1636729735404240896

For the Senate, it seems unsure whether the coalition + GL/PvdA manage to reach a majority together after all, as BBB's stock was apparently undervalued. It will also depend on the agreements parties strike to vote for each other - last time, an FVD member voted SGP to ensure a second SGP seat, and the plan succeeded. Votes from abroad still have to come in too, which will probably help the coalition. BBB and PVV did not even participate there (very big mistake, can flip a seat).

[DavidB.]

Given the extreme crowding on the ‘anti-government right’ segment of the Dutch political scene, what exactly is the remaining base of the PVV (in the polls for the next election I see that they’re still expected to get into the teens seats wise)?

Middle-aged (and slightly older) working class people in the periphery, including peripheral towns and suburbs in the West. BBB voters are less angry and probably rather diverse in terms of political views to begin with (will be interesting how they will deal with that, having borrowed voters from both the hard nationalist right and the center).

The JA21 electorate is more highly educated than PVV electorate, consists more of men than of women, and they more often live in Zuid-Holland and Noord-Holland; specifically the "A4-A7" corridor from Rotterdam to Amsterdam and up to the north of Noord-Holland. It is notable that the JA21 map looks very much like the FVD map last time, but of course the support level is lower - JA21 probably took the more highly educated and more affluent support. They are also very weak in the North and East. Also notable that they did better than the PVV in many municipalities in Noord-Holland and Zuid-Holland but worse than FVD in much of the North.

For FVD, the picture is a little blurry; their numbers are quite similar throughout the entire country (a little better in Noord-Holland). Nowhere did they do well, but nowhere did they drop below 1% or so. I'd be interested in seeing more stats about their voters.  They performed at about 50% of the result in the parliamentary election of 2021 (when they got 8 seats), which is quite bad. The drop seems bigger outside the West.

[DavidB.]

Some recent developments:

- PM Rutte said they government will listen to the "scream" of the voters (not sure this is a good or respectful way to frame it...) and will think of the consequences in terms of policy. Behind the scenes, the Ministry for Agriculture is already preparing a proposal to pacify BBB. Scrapping the proposed tightening of the nitrogen reduction deadline from 2035 to 2030 is a prominent feature in this regard. VVD, CDA and CU would be ready to drop the tightening of this target. Van der Plas also demands no forced buyouts and an increase of the nitrogen emissions cap in the law. The latter demand would probably be subject to new lawsuits.

- On election night, Nitrogen Minister Christianne van der Wal (VVD) gave a bit of a tactless interview in which she says nitrogen policy has to continue as planned because there is no choice. She said it was already known many people were opposed to the policy, but if we want our economy to stay open and housing construction to continue we have to do this. In De Telegraaf, an anonymous CDA MP remarked that they thought: "Shut the f**k up" when Van der Wal said all of this. Green and left commentators, on the other hand, lauded Van der Wal's comments.

- BBB asked MP Chris Stoffer (SGP) to investigate possible avenues for coalition formation in the province of Friesland. The SGP itself did not win any seats in Friesland. The local PvdA leader said it is positive he has experience and she wouldn't object to it.

And some thoughts about provincial coalition building:

- BBB's victory will make provincial coalition formation a nightmare. This is not like 2019, where FVD's victory was impressive/shocking (depending on political POV) and surprising but the magnitude was fairly limited. Now, the numbers game is fundamentally different. In many provinces, sidelining BBB, FVD, PVV and JA21 requires absurd coalitions to be formed, consisting of basically all other parties. This won't be feasible.

Take Flevoland, where BBB got 20.8% of the vote and 10 out of 41 seats - close to its national average and by no means the most pro-BBB province. Not that crazy. But BBB, PVV, FVD and JA21 already have 17 seats combined. VVD, CDA, D66, CU, GL and PvdA have only 16 combined. Even adding the SP and the PvdD (quite a lot of an ideological stretch...) only takes you to 20, 1 short of a majority. Where to go next? 50Plus and a local party both have one. But it's difficult to see how this would work - and how voters wouldn't punish this behavior. In many provinces, the picture is similar or even more favorable to BBB. I expect establishment parties to form anti-BBB coalitions in some provinces (Utrecht, Noord-Holland and Zuid-Holland are the most obvious options - in that order), but in most provinces this simply won't be an option - BBB will be "incontournable", as the French say, mostly because excluding BBB means excluding PVV/FVD/(almost definitely) JA21 too.

Playing with the coalition builder in every province and looking at the different provincial results is possible here.

[DavidB.]

I appreciate the work in the above analysis, and the numerical game really matters, and the above prediction will probably be sort of correct in many cases simply because of the maths. However, the above analysis ignores local factors: for instance, the extent to which the provincial VVD/CDA are supportive of the national government's nitrogen policy (which can be counterintuitive - for instance, Noord-Brabant is an agricultural powerhouse but Noord-Brabant's VVD is one of the "greenest"). It also ignores issues which aren't related to nitrogen - I guess this is where the term "political culture", which I normally don't tend to use because it's so vague, starts to matter too (for instance: Limburg is likely to have another "extraparliamentary" government, without a big coalition agreement, since most parties were satisfied with the way this promoted dualism and transparency last term - but due to the numbers game, policy will absolutely have a right-wing signature). It ignores the fact that VVD/CDA on the one hand and D66 on the other hand have very real differences among them and will not necessarily see each others as allies provincially everywhere. And it ignores potential cooperation of left-wing parties (PvdA, perhaps SP) with BBB (I wouldn't rule this out in the North and the East). Much of my criticism of the above boils down to the fact that in the Netherlands, the three "blocs" are a useful unit of analysis to look at voter movements and to restore some order to the madness of the 20 parties we have, but they are not formal or informal electoral blocs like we (used to) see in Scandinavia.

Provinces have a tradition of oversized governments which aren't too ideologically left or right in nature but consist of the biggest parties (but not too many of them). Only recently, due to massive fragmentation, have majorities become more narrow, while at the same time a much larger number of parties has been needed in some cases. Any purely "right" coalitions aren't going to happen anyway. The possibility greatly strengthens BBB's position, but they will never enter a government with only FVD/PVV/JA21.

In the end it's difficult to predict in which coalitions BBB will take part. I suspect much will depend on the leeway the national government will provide - and on whether we will even have a national government by then.

[DavidB.]

I don't think it's impossible in places like Friesland, Drenthe or Overijssel, where the PvdA isn't dominated by people from big cities and consists of people more understanding of the situation of farmers and more eager to strike a compromise. The PvdA aren't in the national government either, so provincial branches will in practice have quite a bit of autonomy. Ultimately, in many cases, CDA/VVD will have to decide between forming incoherent coalitions of 6-8 parties and risking even more popular anger, or biting the bullet and striking some sort of compromise with BBB. If they do the latter, I won't rule out PvdA/CU joining such coalitions in rural provinces. (The effect this would have on GL-PvdA merger plans, however, would be interesting...) Also remember the PvdA in Overijssel were really close to entering a coalition with FVD last time, until the national leadership interfered.

All of this reminds me of the previous coalition in the municipality of Barendrecht, where local party EVB held 14 out of 29 seats and all six other parties (VVD, PvdA, D66, CDA, CU/SGP, GL) on the council formed a coalition consisting of 15 seats. In the following election, EVB crushed the coalition won an absolute majority of 20 out of 29 seats. This is the type of scenario establishment parties will want to avoid.

[DavidB.]

I’m not talking about BBB-PvdA only coalitions. I’m talking about coalitions of BBB and PvdA which also include either VVD, CDA or both. FVD in 2019 was already significantly more radical than BBB in 2023. And I’ll once again emphasize similarities between BBB and PvdA on issues like budget cuts for local facilities.

As for electorally powerful - I think the tendency of former “natural governing parties” like PvdA and CDA to have the desire to govern, especially in provinces where they have always done so, should not be understated, even apart from electoral considerations. It’s all very hard to predict, but I would be surprised if no province ends up with a coalition consisting of both PvdA and BBB.

[DavidB.]

For the first time, Dutchmen living abroad could vote for the Senate too - for the newly established "electoral college non-residents", which was formed because it was deemed unfair that Dutchmen abroad did not have influence on the election of the Senate, and which has the sole purpose of electing the Senate together with the 12 Provincial States.

Today, the municipality of The Hague, which is responsible for the administration of this election, released the following preliminary results (still excluding some votes cast at embassies, which will be counted tomorrow):

https://twitter.com/paulusdewilt/status/1637495619714424833?s=20

(Click for full results - VVD and PvdD are cut off in the preview.)

As opposed to Dutchmen living in the Netherlands, eligible voters abroad had to actively register to vote in this election (hence the low number of votes cast and high turnout figure - this is only turnout of registered voters).

Good performance for GL, D66, VVD, and Volt - unsurprisingly so. No BBB and PVV here, so much of their support has gone to JA21 and FVD. I had expected the CDA figure to be much higher.

The electoral weight of this college will be extremely small, but small differences still matter in Senate elections.

[DavidB.]

The PvdD in third place with 11.5% in Amsterdam is quite something.

The PvdD used to have two types of voter bases - the animal activist, environmentalist, "alternative" voter base, and disaffected protest voters (or simply apolitical people) who don't trust politicians but like animals. Quite unique. But it seems the party is shifting more towards the first base and losing the second base. This could also have to do with a subtle shift in focus under Esther Ouwehand's leadership - from Animal Party more towards Earth/Climate Party. You could say the party is becoming more conventionally "left-wing".

This is very visible in the change map compared to 2019: losses in post-industrial and otherwise peripheral areas in suburban Rotterdam, Southern Limburg, Western Brabant, Noord-Holland Noord, and Eastern Groningen; offset by big gains in the Alkmaar-Nijmegen "progressive belt", particularly in cities with highly educated voters.

[DavidB.]

One of you may have explained this, but why did neither Denk nor Bij1 run in these elections? (I guess DENK did run a small slate, but they lost all their seats). I know the former is troubled, but what's happening with the latter?

Last time in the PS elections, DENK ran everywhere but still failed to win a Senate seat. This time, they chose to focus their efforts on three of the provinces with the most Muslims: Noord-Holland, Zuid-Holland and Utrecht. These are also provinces with a high electoral weight in the Senate election due to their big population, so theoretically one could win a Senate seat by winning something like 2 seats in each of these provinces. But they failed miserably: they even lost all of their Provincial seats there (and now have 0 left). They're not so much in trouble internally anymore, but simply seemed to have lost their mojo since they quit Öztürk's confrontational course and became more "constructive" in terms of style - from "Muslim PVV" to "Muslim CDA", if you will. It probably doesn't help that their voters are more low-info and don't tend to vote in second-order elections, if at all.

They also seem to be out of sync with young Muslims (their most important target group) when it comes to issues regarding traditional family structures, LGBT, and gender. While DENK refuses to go hard on issues like these (which would raise difficult questions in relation to their general stance "against discrimination"), FVD has embraced young Muslims as a potential voting bloc and has campaigned hard to win over this group - mostly on Instagram and TikTok. Thierry Baudet gave interviews on Muslim podcasts claiming he had been wrong all the time on Islam and 9/11 and sees "beautiful elements" in Islam, has been in the gym with very prominent Muslim bodybuilding influencer Kosso, supports Andrew Tate vocally, and is about to make a song with Muslim rap star Boef. They are very visible; DENK isn't.

According to opinion pollster Aziz El Kaddouri, 1 out of 10 young Muslims in the Netherlands is now inclined to support FVD, the NOS reported today. I suspect many of them used to support DENK.

As for BIJ1:

BIJ1 doesn't take part in the elections - they have had lots of infighting since the local elections, with accusations of "anti-Muslim racism" on the other hand and "anti-black racism" on the other hand between the two warring factions. Sylvana Simons is often not present in parliament due to chronic illness and pain, but cannot temporarily give up her seat, as it would go to #2 Quinsy Gario, who left the party on bad terms. Therefore, they are less visible than perhaps possible and decided not to take the risk. BIJ1 have endorsed the Party for the Animals.

So Simons' illness + internal unrest.

Then there is Volt, which could have won a second Senate seat had they stood everywhere. But there was supposedly a lack of capable candidates + they want to have gender parity everywhere.

[DavidB.]

According to a new projection by ANP Election Desk, BBB will gain another seat and go to 17 while D66 lose another seat and go to 5. This projection is based on the preliminary results of all municipalities, 95% of the counted votes in Amsterdam and the vote from abroad. Apparently there were some other changes in the meantime that I missed too (PVV keeping its 5th seat, Volt gaining only one).

Projection:
BBB 17 (+17), GL-PvdA 15 (+1), VVD 10 (-2), D66 5 (-2), PVV 5 (nc), CDA 5 (-4), PvdD 4 (+1), SP 3 (-1), JA21 3 (+3), FVD 2 (-10), CU 2 (-2), SGP 1 (-1), 50Plus 1 (-1), OSF 1 (nc), Volt 1 (+1).

Government: 22
Government+GL-PvdA: 37

Left/progressive opposition: 23
Coalition: 22
Right/conservative opposition: 28
50Plus and OSF unclassified

[DavidB.]

The story of how D66 lost their 5th Senate seat is actually rather funny. In a precinct in Rotterdam, D66 received 58 votes and the PvdA 78. Some poor polling worker forgot to press "tab" and filled out 5878 votes for D66. This was noticed during a routine check, which meant D66 got almost 6,000 fewer votes than initially tabulated - which made a difference of one seat in the Provincial States of Zuid-Holland and then, due to the big weight of Zuid-Holland, also in the Senate; which may be decisive for whether the coalition + GL/PvdA receive a majority or not. All of this goes to show: voting matters...

There was also much talk about Rotterdam changing and gentrifying and "boboizing" after the "result" of both GL and D66 gaining and becoming #1 and #2 was published. Well, this process is still happening... but after correcting the mistake, D66 actually lost to GL, completely in line with the national result, and ended up coming third, being overtaken by the VVD.

[DavidB.]

Tensions within the coalition are rising. Only D66 stick to enshrining 2030 in law as nitrogen target, claiming they "keep their word" (regarding the coalition agreement) and "hope other parties do so too." The CDA has had crisis talks, which ended with Hoekstra staying on as party leader "provisionally" - not exactly a ringing endorsement... According to NRC, chances that Hoekstra leads the party into the next general election are "minimal". Behind closed doors, MPs are questioning Hoekstra's leadership and are angry that the CDA ministers fail to show a clear CDA profile, while their portfolios would provide them with the opportunity to do so.

Meanwhile, the coalition parties (except for the VVD) are fighting each other in parliament, with CDA MP Jaco Geurts claiming D66 is "putting the Netherlands on hold when it comes to housing construction" (aren't you in that same coalition...?) and he questions D66 MP Tjeerd de Groot's "mental faculties". Meanwhile, De Groot, one of the instigators of the farmers protests by being the loudest voice to reduce livestock by 50%, accuses CU MP Pieter Grinwis of making "illegal" proposals.

The coalition first refused GL leader Klaver's suggestion to debate the Provincial Election results, but after Klaver threatened to demand a roll call vote, the coalition parties caved. The debate will be held on April 4 and if there is no breakthrough on nitrogens within the coalition by then, this debate is bound to get very awkward. Time to stack up the popcorn.

[DavidB.]

How would hypothetical referendum on nitrogen targets would go?

Depends on the targets, but the current ones: definitely against. Margin could be anywhere between 55-45 and 75-25 in favor of "no" (VVD and CDA are more in favor of these targets than most of their voters). But the referendum was abolished by the previous government.

[DavidB.]

How would hypothetical referendum on nitrogen targets would go?

Depends on the targets, but the current ones: definitely against. Margin could be anywhere between 55-45 and 75-25 in favor of "no" (VVD and CDA are more in favor of these targets than most of their voters). But the referendum was abolished by the previous government.

It seems as if most CDA and VVD voters want a bourgeois right coalition. Is this also something preferred by a substantial fraction of CU voters, or would they side with D66 in preferring an agreement with PvdA-GL?

Their voters probably overwhelmingly support the nitrogen reduction targets, more so than VVD/CDA voters, but are also sympathetic to farmers, believe in compromising, and don't like the polarization D66 is bringing.

CU are in a difficult position. They have drifted very much leftwards on issues like climate/the environment and immigration, and in terms of political position they are closer to D66/PvdA/GL on most issues. However, "culturally" they are closer to VVD/CDA. And CU's most important problem with D66/PvdA/GL is "progressive vs. conservative" issues: drug legalization, prostitution, euthanasia, abortion etc. On all of this, cooperation with VVD and CDA is easier for CU. If need be, they could also cooperate with BBB; again, substantial policy differences but cultural proximity. JA21 would be very difficult, however - probably too difficult.