Predict the 2020 GOP primaries (user search)

Quote from: UWS on June 28, 2016, 07:57:00 AM

Total delegates : 2435 delegates
Delegates needed to win the nomination : 1218 delegates

Marco Rubio : 1960 delegates, 41 states + D.C., PR, GU, NM, VI and AS, 63.1 % of the popular vote (Nominee)

Paul Ryan : 329 delegates, 6 states, 23.4 % of the popular vote (withdrew on March 17, 2020)

Scott Brown : 90 delegates, 3 states, 9.6 % of the popular vote (Withdrew on March 7, 2020)

Mike Pence : 43 delegates, 0 state, 2.46 % of the popular vote (withdrew on February 24, 2020)

Ted Cruz : 7 delegates, 0 state, 0.87 % of the popular vote (withdrew on January 24, 2020)

John Kasich : 5 delegates, 0 state, 0.47 % of the popular vote (withdrew on January 13, 2020)

Rand Paul : 1 delegate, 0 state, 0.1 % of the popular vote (withdrew on January 6, 2020)

After promising Iowan evangelicals to fight for freedom of religion by saving their coreligionists from ISIS' persecutions as well as by fighting ISIS with military action, Marco Rubio gets the support of many evangelicals. By promising tax credits for tractor companies and seed companies to help them create new jobs, innovate and produce more tractors and seeds, which will help Iowans to accomplish their agricultural activities and ensure their subsistence while reducing their dependence on food stamps. This strategy leads to Rubio's victory in Iowa on January 6th 2020. After finishing sixth with only 3 % of the vote, Rand Paul drops out.

Rubio's victory in Iowa boosts him in the polls in New Hampshire, so the first-in-the-nation primary becomes a three-man race between Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan and Scott Brown. Scott Brown has some advantages in New Hampshire : he's moderate, his home state of Massachusetts borders New Hampshire. But Paul Ryan also has advantages in this state : he was the running mate of Mitt Romney in 2012, Romney endorses him and campaigns for him in New Hampshire, a state where Romney is pretty popular. On January 13, Ryan narrowly wins the New Hampshire primary over Marco Rubio, who finished second, and Scott Brown, who finished third. After a dispointing fourth place, Senator John Kasich suspends his campaign.

Senator Rubio uses his foreign policy experience and accomplishments to win votes among military veterans. He also reminded his policies empowering the United States Department of Veterans Affairs in order to care more about vets than bureaucrats. He gains the endorsements from former Governor Nikki Haley, Senator Tim Scott and Senator Lindsey Graham. Rubio wins handily in South Carolina on January 24. Ted Cruz withdraws and endorses Rubio.

Three days later, Rubio triumphs in North Carolina before Scott Brown wins the Maine caucuses on January 31. On February 3, Rubio wins again the Minnesota primary. The same day, he pulls off victory in Colorado thanks to the local Hispanic vote. On February 6th, we crushes his opponents by forming a coalition of Hispanics and Mormons and by the fact that he and his family lived in Las Vegas for a few years in the 1980s. Paul Ryan wins the Michigan on February 24 thanks to Wisconsin's neighborhood with the Wolverine State and to Romney's connections and name recognition in this state. The same day, he wins Wyoming with the support of the local Mormon community that was willing to back the running mate of the one who could have been the first Mormon President in 2012 : Mitt Romney. Mike Pence's disappointing results pushed him out of the race.

Super Tuesday is held on March 3, 2020. Senator Rubio easily wins his home state of Florida as well as Alaska, Arkansas (thanks to Mike Huckabee's and Tom Cotton's endorsements), Georgia (thanks to Georgia's neighborhood with Florida), Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas (with the support from the local Hispanic community, from the Bush family and from Ted Cruz) and Virginia. Speaker Ryan wins Tennessee with the support of the local evangelical christian electorate. Senator Brown wins his home state of Massachusetts as well as the state next door Vermont. Rubio has 649 delegates, Ryan has 230 delegates and Brown has 90 delegates.

On March 7, Brown loses both the Lousiana caucuses and the Washington state caucuses because of his opposition to International Trade Council to promote exports. Rubio wins both of these caucuses. Brown ends his campaign and supports Marco Rubio. Three days later, Rubio wins the crucial Ohio primary (because nobody won the White House without carrying Ohio in the general election and the Republican voters in the Buckeye State are willing to back a candidate who can win the general election and beat Hillary Clinton, while Paul Ryan lost Ohio and the 2012 election alongside Mitt Romney to Barack Obama) and the caucuses in Hawai and in the American Samoa while Ryan wins Mississippi. On March 14, while Ryan wins the Kansas caucuses, Rubio wins the ones in Guam, in the Northern Marianas and in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The next day, heeasily wins the Puerto Rico primary with a massive support among the local Hispanic vote. In order to win the next contests, he casts Ryan's "Inner city" comments as offensive to the African-American community. On March 17, Senator Rubio wins the Alabama caucuses, the Illinois primary and, narrowly, the Missouri primary. Speaker Ryan drops out of the race and endorses Rubio. After winning the Arizona primary and the Utah caucuses on March 24 as well as the primaries in Wisconsin, in Maryland and in Washington D.C., Marco Rubio clinches the Republican nomination for President of the United States of America after winning 1226 delegates, surpassing the requiring number of 1218 delegates on a total of 2435 delegates and becoming the first Hispanic to be nominated by one of the two major political parties in the United States.

In order to win among young people (because in 2020, all the Millenials will be eligible to vote), Hispanics, Asian-Americans and conservatives, Marco Rubio selects former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. They are officialy nominated at the 2020 Republican National Convention in Las Vegas held between July 12 and July 15. They went on to win the General Election on November 3 2020 over President Hillary Clinton and Vice-President Tim Kaine with 336 great electors, 34 states and 53 % of the popular vote against 202 great electors, 16 states (+ D.C.) and 45 % of the popular vote for the Democratic ticket.

Thought this was an excellent scenario, well explained.

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