Only Half of All Republicans Want Donald Trump as Their 2024 Nominee

[Frodo]

Those Republicans most opposed to another Trump candidacy are those who are best represented on this forum -overwhelmingly young and college-educated:

https://twitter.com/AJDelgado13/status/1546969355027681280

[TheReckoning]

This number is unfortunately not as significant as many might think it is. Only about half of Republicans wanted Trump as nominee back in 2016, but look how that turned out. As long as Trump support is unified but Trump opposition is not, Trump support will win, every single time.

[Frodo]

This number is unfortunately not as significant as many might think it is. Only about half of Republicans wanted Trump as nominee back in 2016, but look how that turned out. As long as Trump support is unified but Trump opposition is not, Trump support will win, every single time.

I beg to differ -considering where we were last year, I think this is quite a significant change.  And if Ron DeSantis decides to run, and manages to unite the opposition (which he stands a very good chance of doing), the 2024 GOP primary will be very interesting to behold.    

[Del Tachi]

Trump's hold on the 2024 nomination is much more tenuous than Hillary Clinton's was on the 2016 nomination, to be sure. 

At this point in 2014, Clinton was well over 50% support and leading the Democratic field by >50 points.  She went on to lose much of her edge once the campaign started and her opposition coalesced around Sanders.

DeSantis is quickly consolidating the non-Trump GOP vote according to polls.  A one-on-one matchup is exactly what is needed in order for Trump to lose.   

[Illiniwek]

Then they better turn up to vote.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump's hold on the 2024 nomination is much more tenuous than Hillary Clinton's was on the 2016 nomination, to be sure. 

At this point in 2014, Clinton was well over 50% support and leading the Democratic field by >50 points.  She went on to lose much of her edge once the campaign started and her opposition coalesced around Sanders.

DeSantis is quickly consolidating the non-Trump GOP vote according to polls.  A one-on-one matchup is exactly what is needed in order for Trump to lose.   

and DeSantis probably can do a better job appealing to soft Trump supporters than Sanders could to soft Hillary ones

[jojoju1998]

As a anecdote, my super conservative family members are like " Trump should not run again, he's too petulant. ".

[HillGoose]

ya bcuz trump is a silver spoon pussy who was besties with Jeff Epstein, and also he was a one-term loser

[Roll Roons]

Voters don't care about January 6th, as bad as it was, but it cuts both ways. They also don't want to endlessly relitigate 2020.

Ron really can do this if he plays his cards right.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Those college educated voters are also vastly over represented in polling..

[Senator Incitatus]

I would like someone capable of pushing the envelope further. Most very-involved people I talk to want the same, though we disagree about who is the best vehicle for that and are obviously a small (though highly attuned) fraction of the political scene.

DeSantis is obviously the leader, Trump Jr. gets some play, and there is whispering that if Trump doesn't run, either of Vance or Masters would fill his shoes. Stranger things have happened. (I've personally tried to push the Ross Perot Jr. bandwagon, but no dice. He's voiced support for some questionable policies.)

Anyway, just some caution for those moderates who think this means they're getting Bill Weld 2024. The same goes for Republicans who look at Biden's low approval and forget it includes the Sanders-AOC wing. Pretty much all of these people would sign up to work for his campaign and his White House in a heartbeat if he's the nominee.

[HisGrace]

Ooof, that number is still pretty pathetic and means Trump would still win the primary today with the possible exception of it it became a full on two man race by the time voting started.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Run Ron Run!

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Half of Republicans are 'a-okay' with his strongman tactics and anti-democratic gambits; but would prefer to put the knife in our democracies back rather than just shank us from the front.

[BG-NY]

lol

[S019]

DeSantis could definitely win, and given early polling has shown him up in New Hampshire, it's not that hard to see 2008 parallels where Obama's surprise win in Iowa helped him to close the gap with Clinton. Trump also lost Iowa in 2016, so evidence already exists that Iowa Republicans could be open to something other than Trump's brand of conservatism.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Run Ron Run!

[OSR stands with Israel]

DeSantis could definitely win, and given early polling has shown him up in New Hampshire, it's not that hard to see 2008 parallels where Obama's surprise win in Iowa helped him to close the gap with Clinton. Trump also lost Iowa in 2016, so evidence already exists that Iowa Republicans could be open to something other than Trump's brand of conservatism.

Also primaries especially republican ones are all about momentum so if DeSantis can win NH/SC i think he’d actually be the favorite then and if he won 3 of the first 4 he’d be the nominee

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

This number is unfortunately not as significant as many might think it is. Only about half of Republicans wanted Trump as nominee back in 2016, but look how that turned out. As long as Trump support is unified but Trump opposition is not, Trump support will win, every single time.

I beg to differ -considering where we were last year, I think this is quite a significant change.  And if Ron DeSantis decides to run, and manages to unite the opposition (which he stands a very good chance of doing), the 2024 GOP primary will be very interesting to behold.    

I’m still struggling to figure out why ‘Trump, but less dumb’ is the preferred anti-Trump choice.

[Inmate Trump]

If DeSantis can form a legitimate opposition to Trump, I would vote for him in a Republican primary.

The GOP has got to get out from under Donald Trump’s small hands.

[LostInOhio]

This number is unfortunately not as significant as many might think it is. Only about half of Republicans wanted Trump as nominee back in 2016, but look how that turned out. As long as Trump support is unified but Trump opposition is not, Trump support will win, every single time.

I beg to differ -considering where we were last year, I think this is quite a significant change.  And if Ron DeSantis decides to run, and manages to unite the opposition (which he stands a very good chance of doing), the 2024 GOP primary will be very interesting to behold.    

I’m still struggling to figure out why ‘Trump, but less dumb’ is the preferred anti-Trump choice.

It wasn’t Trump’s policies they ever had a problem with. It’s Trump himself.

[LabourJersey]

Those college educated voters are also vastly over represented in polling..

At the same time, college-educated voters are much more likely to vote in primaries.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I'd prefer DeSantis.

[BG-NY]

I’m still struggling to figure out why ‘Trump, but less dumb’ is the preferred anti-Trump choice.

Classism. A lot of suburban upper middle class college educated republicans hate non-college white and hispanic voters.

[MasterJedi]

I’m still struggling to figure out why ‘Trump, but less dumb’ is the preferred anti-Trump choice.

Classism. A lot of suburban upper middle class college educated republicans hate non-college white and hispanic voters.

Yes, because the general refrain from non-college conservatives is how the suburban middle/upper middle class college educated people are the stupid ones who made their lives crap. Meanwhile they bent themselves over, applied the lube for Republican policies.